Changing Demographics in Europe and NATO
Phillip R. Cuccia | Strategic Studies Institute| May 2010
The implications of the demographic changes in Europe and their effect on NATO are a topic that deserves greater attention in the discussions surrounding NATO’s new strategic concept. This notwithstanding, the greatest challenge to NATO remains the internal disagreement over what constitutes an external threat to the Alliance. However, it is precisely the demographic change that threatens to further undermine this fragile consensus.
On the one hand, Europe’s population is aging, while on the other hand the percentage of Muslim citizens in Europe continues to rise. By 2020, around 10% of all Europeans will be of the Islamic faith. An aging population by itself already presents a challenge to NATO: As less and less recruits will be available for active duty, Europe’s armies will find it increasingly difficult to field forces of sufficient strength. Moreover, the rising number of pensioners will also put pressure on Europe’s social security systems. More money will be required to finance old age pensions and far less will be available for military expenditure. The defense budgets of NATO member states are bound to shrink. Fewer available recruits and more pensioners in Europe will mean that the United States will have to shoulder far greater responsibility in the Alliance than up to now. This is certain to lead to tensions within NATO, irrespective of whether the Alliance decides to embrace a global security approach or concentrates on collective European defense. A greater challenge yet to the Alliance’s internal cohesion will be posed by the rising number of Muslims in Europe, in particular with regard to NATO operations in the Middle East. Due to religious and cultural affinity, Muslim Europeans may well embrace a rather skeptical stance toward such undertakings. After all, NATO is very unpopular in the Middle East, not least of all because of Turkish membership. The heritage of the Ottoman Empire on the one hand and the detested secular nature of the modern Turkish state on the other contribute little to NATO’s attractiveness in the region. Muslim citizens in European countries moreover are unlikely to support NATO operations in other Islamic countries.
In the coming years, a substantial part of European society will grow increasingly uncertain as to the necessity of the Alliance’s existence. While one group will have its misgivings because of the financial resources required, the other group will be influenced largely by religious concerns. Given these tendencies, the European states will need to concentrate to a far greater extent on questions of internal security and will be far less flexible in terms of foreign policy. Both demographic developments – an aging population and a rising percentage of Muslims – represent significant challenges for NATO missions outside Europe. They could well constitute a serious threat to the continued existence of NATO.
This summary was prepared by the Atlantic Community editorial team from "Implications of a Changing NATO " published here... by the Strategic Studies Institute.
Mon, Jul 12th 2010, 10:04
Clayton Macdonald, , Silver Contributor (35)
Paragraph 2: A series of projections stated as inevitabilities. The outcomes suggested in the paragraph may indeed be 'inevitable' if the politicians involved in NATO, both directly and indirectly, are unable to invent or even innovate. We are so used to dull minded politicians that such an assumption is easy to make. But statements of inevitability, such as this summary, only reinforce persons' expectations of dull politicians and politicians' expectations that they are dull and cannot, and will not, do anything new.
Paragraph 3: Acknowledges the need for change, but frames that need in the context of rear-guard defensive actions rather than in terms of proactive building of international and intercultural collaboration. A bunker mentality will not save the West, nor will it improve conditions in the East.