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The Future Pillars of Europe: EU, Russia, and Turkey

Ivan Krastnev et al. | ECFR | November 2010

Lord Ismay, NATO’S first General Secretary, once said that the goal of the alliance was “to keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down.” In today’s multipolar word, he would have had to rephrase this imperative: For Europe’s security, it will be essential to keep the EU united, Russia post-imperialist, and Turkey European. After all, the Americans are so tied down internationally that Europe is no longer as important to them as it once was. Meanwhile, Turkey and Russia are gaining in strength and in importance in Europe. In the not-too-distant future, they will be critical to keeping the continent safe. Europe urgently needs a new strategy to account for these developments and to ensure the peaceful coexistence of its diverse peoples

Europe today is undergoing profound change. The present state of affairs – one that might be termed “peaceful disorder” – cannot be maintained over the long run. Europeans must realize the significance of a number of parallel developments over the past few years. For one, the European Union has reached a post-national stage in its development. Second, Turkey is pursuing a more active regional role and is in danger of losing interest in Europe. Third, Russia has regained sufficient strength to challenge the post-Cold War order in Europe, which Moscow never accepted in the first place. The Merkel and Medvedev dialogue is a first step in the right direction in order to untie this Gordian knot, but the talks need to include Erdogan as well.

The change needs to be a fundamental one: In spite of the European Union undeniably forming one of the pillars of European security, the EU is not at present represented in any European security structure. The EU must be turned into a hub for security in Europe. To this end, Russia and Turkey need to be tied to Europe by treaty. This needs to be achieved quickly, before Turkey tires of the slow accession talks and focuses exclusively on its role in the Middle East. At the same, Russia must be kept from abandoning its modernization project and forsaking the positive “Westpolitik” (rapprochement with the West) it is pursuing at present.

Constructing a new security architecture in Europe necessitates a new approach to security. An informal security dialogue should lead up to a European security action plan, which subsequently will need to be formalized in a new European security treaty. The informal security talks should involve all three parties – the EU, Russia, and Turkey – on a regular basis. This framework would also allow states on the periphery of Europe to bring their concerns to their attention quickly. A European security action plan should address the many frozen conflicts on Europe’s periphery in particular – from the Balkans to the Caucasus – in order to provide them with solutions over the long term. A new security treaty that establishes the EU as one of the most important players in security matters in Europe would greatly advance the cause of peace on the continent.

This summary was prepared by the Atlantic Community editorial team from “The Spectre of a Multipolar Europe” published here by the European Council on Foreign Relations.