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March 4, 2011 |  7 comments |  Print | E-Mail Your Opinion  

A Choice Between Reform and Stability

Sarah Redohl: In the wake of uprisings in North Africa, NATO may be forced to make a choice between much-needed reform or stable dictatorships. With a hefty aim to be the world guarantor of security by 2020, NATO will need to reconsider its newest partnerships, beyond the interest of its allies, and start guaranteeing actual security.

Doused in paint thinner, Mohamed Bouazizi set himself alight in Tunisia on Dec. 17, sparking a string of protests throughout northern Africa. The 20-year old college graduate, angry after the government confiscated his source of income- a fruit cart- and beat him, has been credited as the beginning of a series of uprisings in North Africa.

Protests have now spread to Egypt and Libya, as well as Morocco and Algeria. Citizens have taken to the streets in protest of high food prices, and even higher unemployment rates, and general discontent with, in many cases, decades of inefficient dictatorial regimes.

With protests mounting from country to country, igniting passion for reform in nations’ citizens, the uprisings of North Africa may be the 21st century’s Berlin Wall. NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen recognizes the potential effect the uprisings could have on the world order, but says, “The outcome of this turmoil remains unclear.”

Resource-rich North Africa has become a strategic battlefield among the US, Europe, China and Russia. The US and Europe, united under NATO, seemed to prevail under two NATO initiatives: the Mediterranean Dialogue and a military alliance with the 53 countries of the African Union (AU).

Member nations of the AU and the Mediterranean Dialogue are believed to benefit from the initiatives under the broad public goals of countering security threats against Africa and using NATO as a model for the African Standby Force. But NATO members will receive more concrete benefits, such as limiting Russian and Chinese expansion and blocking arms suppliers of non-NATO members.

The interests of NATO forge onward, devoid of serious regard to its public objectives. Rasmussen has outlined his concerns with the uprisings in terms of its impact upon the Middle East peace process and a possible increase of illegal immigration to Europe, validating NATO-centric concerns to the world under a “we don’t interfere in domestic politics” stance. Forget about partnerships, dialogues, and goals.

This lack of response from NATO is only amplified by a muted response from the US, with Europe following suit. Though Obama exercised caution in denouncing violence against peaceful protesters in Libya out of fear that the Gadhafi regime would target American nationals in Libya, Washington was also slow to react to protests in Egypt earlier in February.

Only after receiving strong criticism in the media did Obama denounce Mubarak, a long-time ally to the US, calling for transition “now.” Washington has propped up dictatorial regimes, such as that of Mubarak, for decades, benefiting from such stable relationships with dictators. In Egypt, which has been known to hold and torture terrorist suspects for the US, there has been a “protect us in our war and we will forgive your human rights abuses” policy. It seems US policy is in support of stable dictators, rather than fledgling democracies. Why would the US and NATO, which so avidly promote democracy, not have supported it in North Africa?

“The US and allies pull out no stops to prevent democracy because of major energy resources,” says Noam Chomsky, a well-respected American intellectual. In fact, as the protests spread to Libya, the major concern in the US was rising gas prices, not Gadhafi dropping bombs on his own citizens and executing Libyan soldiers who refused to kill their compatriots. Oil prices, which could reach $220 per barrel if Libya and Algeria, both dealing with internal protests, were to cut off oil supplies, could slow down economic recovery.

Both NATO and the US have shrouded selfish intentions behind national sovereignty, but after decades of support for allied dictators and more recent initiatives for a firm grasp on African affairs, perhaps it is not an honest stance to take. And if the US and NATO do not take a stance, we should hope they set aside potential gains and focus on allowing the internal movements of Africa choose the next step.

Recently, NATO has urged all parties to stop violence and ensure peaceful transition to democracy. A little less recently, Mubarak urged protestors for ‘orderly transitions’ that only served to postpone change. While we can hope and urge for peaceful transitions, we must remember that NATO is not just a collection of military power, but also a political entity with a widely stated goal to “promote democratic values to build trust and prevent conflict in the long-run.” To prevent conflict in the long run, might it be in the best interests of North Africa to allow reform?

NATO cannot both call for stability and advocate reform. With a hefty aim to be the world guarantor of security by 2020, NATO will need to reconsider its newest partnerships, beyond the interest of its allies, and start guaranteeing actual security.

Sarah Redohl is studying Journalism at the University of Missouri, and interning at E!Sharp magazine. 


Read related articles from atlantic-community.org members:


This article was submitted for the atlantic-community.org's competition: "Empowering Women in International Relations." It coincides with the 10th Anniversary of UN resolution 1325 calling for an increased influence of women in all aspects of peace and security. The contest is sponsored by the U.S. Mission to NATO and the NATO Public Diplomacy Division.

You can find more information about the competition here.

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Tags: | NATO | Egypt | Tunisia | Libya | democracy |
 
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Member deleted

March 5, 2011

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Have watched recent events with great attention and interest, and apparently, there is progress in the dialogues among civilizations.

Have proposed to let US lead the way forward, on higher moral ground and values, albeit not perfect; and as observed, many are watching the new US leadership very closely, e.g. EU, Mideast, Africa, China, Russia, etc.

The world is in a messy state, as is, and that's exactly the reason to look for leadership to lead the world out of the turmoil, common sense maybe, but common sense matters these days.

A country that does introspection constantly deserves respect.
 
Nabi  Sonboli

March 6, 2011

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Dear Sarah Redohl
I agree with all the points that you have raised in your article. However, it dose not seem that influential NATO members are interested in listening to such a voices. I have explained my opinion on this issue in two articles recently published: The Emerging Order in the Middle East and Egypt: A Great Test for the West.
Many analysts and decision makers tend to rely on unrealistic realism. By unrealistic realism I mean the way of thinking that prefers short-term interests and long-term loss to short-term loss and long-term interests. If we compare the advantages and disadvantages of the US and EU foreign policy toward the Middle East during the past decades, we clearly reach to the conclusion that what has been sold out to the people as success, in the long term has been big failures.
Just compare the three trillion financial costs of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq plus thousands of casualties of innocent US, German, Iraqi, Afghani people that have been killed with the benefits that the US and NATO have achieved in there. Another example is the Israeli security that has always been a top priority for the US and EU in the region. Accordingly, they have justified supporting dictatorships in the ME for more than 5 decades. The question is whether Israel is more secure now or if they had supported reform sooner. It seems to me that because of long-term double standard behaviors, the West has lost its credibility and they should do their best to regain the trust of the people in the ME streets. It will not be possible by more military or political interventions or supporting cosmetic reforms. The people in the Middle East look for a better life and the EU-US have many things to offer.

 
Maria Carolina Pinto

March 7, 2011

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Supporting “democratic” transitions in ethnically diverse countries, is equal to replacing current with future military spending. Cases like Yugoslavia and Rwanda prove the disastrous consequences of ending dictatorial governments in countries where ethnicity plays such a crucial role. Nobody can yet make a prediction about what will happen in Egypt, but latent ethnic tensions between Christians and Muslims have been present in the country for centuries. Allowing ethnically majorities taking power will always pose internal and external security threats. If the UN wishes to guarantee stability in Africa, it is necessary to support western friendly dictators. Otherwise, closely supervising transitions to participatory governments becomes essential in order to guarantee ethnic tensions will not arise in the future.
 
Member deleted

March 7, 2011

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Perhaps EU initiatives supported by US

EU High Representative Catherine Ashton sends fact-finding team to Libya ahead of European Council

Catherine Ashton, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, has today sent a technical fact-finding mission to Libya - the first international mission of its kind to the country since the recent violence. The team will be led by Agostino Miozzo, Managing Director in the European External Action Service for Crisis Response and Operational Coordination. Its aim will be to assess humanitarian and evacuation efforts on the ground in Libya to make an appraisal of what may be needed in terms of additional support.

"I have decided to dispatch this high level mission to provide me with first-hand, real-time information to feed into the discussions leading up to Friday's extraordinary European Council when I will update Heads of State and Government on the situation," Catherine Ashton said. "I would like to thank Italian Foreign Minister Franco Frattini and the Italian government for helping the EEAS in facilitating this important mission."

Mr Miozzo will be available to the media during the visit. He hopes to hold a press conference in Tripoli on Monday and he will brief the press in Brussels on his return.

http://europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=IP/11/263&f...
 
Bernhard  Lucke

March 8, 2011

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Sarah Redohl raised some very important points, and I completely agree with Nabi Sonboli. The "realism" of the western powers is an all to comfortable acceptance of the current, bad situation.

Which will get very worse if we let those corrupt and inefficient regimes continue. The end of the cold war was a great opportunity to revise the aid and development policies, but this was not done, because it was - and is - all too comfortable to have a single autocrat as partner. Unfortunatley, the west had has little interest to involve more deeply into the struggles of Middle Eastern societies, and western ways of thinking are full of prejudice. Rarely westerners touch their own noses, asking whether they might have contributed to the rise of extremism.

In my opinion, the military engagements in Iraq and Afghanistan were wrong and led to a severe deterioration of stability in the Middle East. But not because it is wrong to help people there achieving more freedom and democracy. It was wrong because you can't impose "freedom" from outside: you can only support people inside, and only if they want you to help them. And clearly, it is always dangerous to become involved in an internal conflict.

Regime change in the Middle East was usually to the worse, not at least because the west was quick to accept dictators as long as they would supply oil and gas and play the geostrategic game according to the interests of the west. One could say that corruption not only polluted the Middle East; our cooperation with those regimes corrupted western policy, too.

The failures in Iraq and Afghanistan should have teached us much: military interventions are a double-edged sword, and money alone does not provide development. But if there is a movement of people finally attempting to get Middle Eastern countries back to a more democratic rule, everything should be done to support them, including a limited military option.

From a world geostrategic point of view, I'm afraid that despoty is moving ahead. Not only are western powers installing and backing more dictators, e.g. in Afghanistan, also the 'Chinese model' (i.e. development without participation) seems to become more and more attractive for developing countries. This is the direct consequence of the failure of western politics, that all too long supported corrupt regimes in the name of freedom. And now as there is a real opportunity for change, the west cowardish looks away, fearing rising oil prices and the necessity to engage in dialogue with the long neglected, impoverished parts of Middle Eastern societies (who are certainly to some degree represented by the 'Islamists' or 'Extremists').

A predecessor of the current uprising might be the one in Iraq in 1991. Unfortunately, the U.S. failed in these days to support the uprising against Saddam Hussein. While from a military point of view it was certainly correct to limit the combat mission, little more would have had to be done to help the Iraqis get rid of Saddam. Which might have opened a real perpective of democratic development. Instead, years of sanctions impoverished the country and left little opportunities for young Iraqis. And when the U.S. felt it was time to enforce regime change with another war, nobody wanted the westerners any more. What else could we have expected - the U.S. did everything they could to lose credibility in Iraq. So, in the end, it all was only because of the oil?

Now we are losing the next opportunity. Will we invade Libya in 10 years, too, attempting to correct the outcome of our present hesitation?
 
Unregistered User

March 16, 2011

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Thank you for all of the comments. Whether you agree or disagree, each of your comments adds more truth to a rapidly-changing story.

Sincerest thanks!
 
Adam Joseph Lee

April 20, 2011

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As recent events have shown in the Ivory Coast and now Nigeria, it is almost impossible to avoid all violence in democratic elections in North and Central Africa, where tribal loyalties and rivalries play such a large part in daily life. Only in Ghana in recent year have elections and transfers of power been carried out with minimal and fuss and violence. Its retinue of two consecutive successful election according to the UN now leads to the label of a stable democracy. The only country in North and Central Africa with this tag.

It can´t simply be tribal and historical loyalties that cause disputes and violence otherwise England, Scotland and Wales would forever be at war; it is the straight forward lack of trust Africans in have in beaurocracy after decades of fraudulent elections and military coups. Due to the relative poverty of these countries many tribal groups see very few of the candidates other than their own and therefore it is hard to accept their own leader losing to a faceless competitor. Even the holy grail of UN certified "free and fair elections" doesn´t seem to satisfy the population that at the same time desires western approval for its elections and refutes western intervention in enforcing the results.

It is almost an endless circle of violence that doesn´t seem to be stoppable no matter how democratic the elections are. The only remedy is strong economic growth that involves everyone to the point that the prospect of instability is too damaging to their own economic situation to be a favourable option. The best example of recent years is in China where the population are becoming to economically focused to involve themselves in the trivialities of politics. A situation that exceeds the instability and violence by many times.


A quick comment on the division of Libya, it is an awful idea, just ask anyone walking down the 38th parallel in Korea what they think.
 

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