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November 26, 2009 |  9 comments |  Print | E-Mail Your Opinion  

Marc William Zedler

Topic A Turkic Union: Viable Concept or Illusion?

Marc William Zedler: As Turkey is getting increasingly disillusioned with the EU, momentum could build up for the establishment of a Turkic Union. A Turkic Union would not only be beneficial to Turkey, as it could take up a leading role, but also to the EU, as such a union could serve to counter Russian dominance in the region.

It was only three years ago when Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan proposed a union of Turkish-speaking states. With Turkey's bid to enter the EU stalling would a Turkic union be possible? Remember, many scoffed at the idea of the European Union.

Most likely a Turkic union would include Turkey, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan, whose commonalities stem from language, history, and culture. The prime minister previously stated, a Turkic Union's main objective would be to coordinate foreign policy issues which would create a strong viable "Turkic" voice. Pressing issues that immediately come to mind would be Cyprus, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, treatment of ethnic Turks (i.e. Russia & China), and overal Middle East stability.

If such a union could come to fruition then eventually economic ties would become a priority. Recent steps by regional countries can be seen as creating the groundwork of such a union. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, Nabucco pipeline, joint railway projects, recent Turk Kurultay and the warming relations between Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan show a growing trend of mutual trust and cooperation. These economic undertakings give a clear signal of a growing interdependence, while at the same time challenging Russian dominance in the region. The pipelines in particular send a strong signal by giving Europe another partner to Russian gas. This in turn could create stability in global gas markets, which is clearly needed due to Russia's habitual use of its gas as a political weapon.

One should not forget that Russia would highly dislike the notion of such a union as it would be a real challenge in its sphere of influence. Nonetheless, closer Turkic ties would enable these countries to better resist Russian pressure and create a block on Russia's neo-imperialist inclinations in Central Asia and the Caucasus. Maybe, the US should stop stressing Turkish membership within the EU and focus its efforts on a Turkic Union. EU members such as Germany and France would be highly appreciative, thus smoothing out tensions created by this issue. Turkey on the other hand could benefit from a "special" partnership with the EU but there would be no need for full membership. Turkey would end up being a strong leader in its own union. It seems that such a solution would be ideal for all parties.

Although there are some obstacles inhibiting a Turkic Union these can be overcome with time and resolve. Border disputes remain a problem between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, but if such disputes are resolved with Turkish mediation then momentum could build for a union. A Turkic Union is possible, but would take some time to materialize. If Turkey's EU membership continues to face difficulty then the process to build and promote a Turkic Union will only increase. Remember, Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan stressed it was time to institutionalize summit meetings between Turkic-speaking heads of state with establishing a permanent secretariat. We can see there are some genuine attempts from Turkish politicians to establish a union, but is this merely Turkish-rhetoric or a foreseeable genuine institution?   

Marc Zedler is a recent graduate of Touro College Berlin, where he completed a degree in International Business. Currently, he is interning at Electronic Beats Online.

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Member deleted

November 26, 2009

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Is there not a SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) that has members and observers encompassing south Asia, central Asia, middle east, Russia and China ?

http://www.sectsco.org/EN/

Or, a Developing 8 organization with members from middle east, Africa and south and southeast Asia, whereby Turkey is a member ?

http://www.developing8.org/about-d-8/brief-history/

etc. etc. ?
 
Jakob  Schirmer

November 26, 2009

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I absolutely agree with my previous writer. Such a union would be somehow redundant and counterproductive. Moreover, I do not see the necessity to "counter Russian dominance in the region" by establishing another block of interests. These tensions have to be relaxed through integrative approaches and not through confrontation. However, I agree that there is a certain Turkish approach towards Central Asia. The EU should utilise it by approximating with Turkey.
 
Marc William Zedler

November 26, 2009

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Yes, you are correct there is the SCO and the Developing 8 organization. Nonetheless, they do not represent or voice Turkic dilemmas.

"Pressing issues that immediately come to mind would be Cyprus, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, treatment of ethnic Turks (i.e. Russia & China), and overal Middle East stability."

A Turkic forum would mean more common ground on many of these issues, giving these countries more political clout. Also, this could empower many of "stan" countries and help them establish themselves without being satellites of its stronger influencers (i.e. Russia, China, US).
Tags: | Russia | Turkey | EU |
 
Member deleted

November 26, 2009

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Would not the the Cooperation Council of Turkish-speaking countries be sufficient for the voice of Turkish-speaking countries, namely Azerbaijan, Turkey, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, which are geographically disconnected except the latter two ?

http://www.xalqqazeti.com/public/print.php?lngs=eng&ids=5613

http://www.turkishweekly.net/news/90407/-violent-protests-in-paris-...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_language

Or a Grand Mideast/Central Asia Helsinki is called for ?
 
Member deleted

November 27, 2009

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In view of the fact that the CIS countries are closely related to each other and the Turkic Republics do not seem to overlook their common denominators like kinship as well as historical and cultural ties, it would be more meaningful to develope a Eurasian Union: After all this could be readily achieved by mere participation of Turkey in the CIS organization at some specially devised status.

This would also eliminate any need for Turkey to try to join the disintegrating EU organization. Of course Turkey need not absolve her relationship with the EU to accomplish this type of an integration. The Turkish & EU relationship may be revised at its roots. Actually such a revision needs to be brought up to the negotiation table asap and I think Turkey has all the required justification to ask for this because of the consistent failure and/or rejection of the EU to fulfil her commitments made decades ago. Why bother with a deaf & blind organization any further and needlessly?

Regarding EU concern to combat Russian influence in the region, I think that is much more of a EU problem -not a Turkish problem- to worry about. Can anybody tell me a good reason for Turks to worry about that? If yes, please go ahead and do so...

Regards,

Mustafa
Tags: | Eurasian Union |
 
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November 27, 2009

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Russia, insecure as she is, probably feels more comfortable with EU than U.S. , as can be seen by her efforts to comply with EU norms without being integrated into EU.

An indication of EU intentions was observed as well, by her statement in a EU document that "EU and Eastern Europe......", including Ukraine as part of eastern Europe but not that of the EU, which clearly shows EU is trying to draw a boundary for herself.

Probably so with Russia as well, as long as her territory is secure along with friendly immediate neighbors.

The U.S. and NATO efforts to lend a helping hand to EU energy security complicated the matter a little, e.g. the Turkey - EU dilemma.

Eurasian Union is a concept that's not new, but the wills of the middle east and central Asia need to be respected, and the capabilities of the majors need to be evaluated also, by themselves, if no one else.

This perhaps can only be achieved or not achieved by a Grand East-West dialogue, with a Grand Middle East and Central Asia Helsinki.





 
Marc William Zedler

November 27, 2009

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As Mr. Lee previously stated, US involvement in the Turkey - EU dilemma is unwarranted and not needed. The US is trying to gain Turkey's favor but its support is on the wrong issue. There is little the US can do in this situation and it must be accepted - this is an EU/Turkey issue.

In total agreement a revision in relations is needed between the EU and Turkey in order to prevent long-term damage.

I feel Turkey will have a more predominant role and shift gears in becoming a leader. It was believed that they would enter the EU thus there was no need for a regional leadership role. So, Turkey will most likely garner regional support, since negotiations with the EU have flat-lined. Thus, this will put more emphases on a Turkish approach towards central Asian and most likely butt heads with Russia for regional influence. Plus, wouldn't you consider both countries competitors for the supply of natural resources? Also, lets not forget Turkey is in NATO.

How this pans out is anyone's guess but I feel a Eurasian Union/Turkic Union or something along the same lines is very possible in the long-term future.

 
Unregistered User

December 1, 2009

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The US Needs Turkey for its Middle East Agenda but so doesn't the rest of the world, so?

Turkey's future is tied to a pipeline!
It really drives me crazy but the more you research the more you realize all throughout the middle east, Georgia, Afghanistan, everywhere, all the wars and controversy can be tied back to gas and oil. Russia's interest in Iran in numerous and as such is not singular to nuclear cooperation. You might have already known Russia was also interested in Iran's gas and oil but an interesting possible relationship and cooperation just dawned on me.

I am sure you remember Russia creating a crisis recently shutting off Europe's gas and oil supply after its confrontation with Georgia! That and the fact that Turkey has long desired and endeavored to become a member of the European Union. This opens up a win win for all involved!

* Center pin Turkey, King pin Russia, center pin Iran! Winner US, European Union, Iran, Russia, and all our union and future! Remember the missile defense shield President Obama killed as an issue by switching to the Aegis? The missile Defense shield was starting to look like a necessity with N Korea in pressing on missiles capable of carrying war heads and the ability to reach Hawaii or so we hear. Iran we still do not know about but they will not compromise their nuclear desires so with a responsible credible ally if Russia is one, the responsibility to ensure Iran's real intentions would be there's under scrutiny of course. There is room here.

** The winners in all this is everyone, but Turkey and the EU above all! Russia wants the franchise for Iran's gas and oil! Turkey is at the crossroads of the middle east and the European Union. This is a major point for compromise in all our problems! Give Russia the franchise, the EU lets Turkey join in turn for Turkey allowing a pipeline from Iran through Turkey into the EU. Everyone wins! A win win for all and a chance for us to move into the future as one.

I reiterate the future is up to a pipeline!

In the middle east we have been living a total lie from 9/11 on! You have not heard the truth once! Not on the events of 9/11,the Anthrax attacks which scared Congress to pass the so called Patriot Act and give Bush the abusive power he needed to attack Afghanistan for not allowing his pipeline through Afghanistan. The only remaining obstacle on 9-11 was the remaining agreement between the Taliban and Bridas Corporation. The Bush Administration, Congress, many in our major media, and even the 9-11 Commission and Cheney Energy Task Force all know about Bridas Corporation because that Argentine oil and gas company was standing in the way of our US oil companies and UK oil companies. The Caspian Basin oil is landlocked and there are only so many ways to get that oil out of the ground, to the ocean ports and into your gas tanks or home heating oil tanks.

What a coincidence huh? There is the direct route from Turkmenistan across Iran to the ocean, but that is not politically popular since the overthrow of the Shah of Iran many years ago. There is: 1.) the route across the Caspian Sea westward, which is extremely costly; and through Azerbaijan through Turkey to the Mediterranean; and 2.) from Turkmenistan through Georgia to the Black Sea; and 3.) through the Ukraine to Europe; and 4.) the Turkmenistan through Afghanistan and Pakistan to the ocean. Until one of those solutions was in place, the holes being drilled into the ground by British Petroleum, Chevron, Exxon and others could not go anywhere and could not produce revenues for those companies. A route northward through Russia would put US oil companies at risk to changes in Russian politics and the Eastward route through China was not deemed secure enough since China is soon to become the second largest user of petroleum in the world after the United States.

Lastly!

Many of us have said numerous times that Bush was advised before hand that if he attacked Iraq he would destabilize the middle east. He knew before he ignored all good advice that the neighbors would get involved and they are. He knew that it was most likely that Iraq would be divvied up between the Kurds, the Sunni's, and the Shiite and it will be. In the past I have written extensively the entire middle east would blow and then the entire world would be involved in war. I know that both Turkey and Iran are fighting Kurds that are looking for Autonomy but never really thought that a free Kurdistan would encompass areas of Iran and Turkey as well as Iraq. knowing the close American Kurdish relationship I really have to rethink what Bush's real goal was here after I discovered an old story. Tell me what you think!

Kurdistan Observer: A Free Kurdistan! Recent nuances and nudges in government policy as well as tacit support for the most obscene anti-Semitism and anti-Americanism by the ruling political party of Turkey ought to cause the United States to begin to rethink its comprehensive policy toward Asia in general and toward one non-Arab minority in Iraq in particular: the Kurds. What, today, is the most intractable political problem in Iraq? It is the very real political and religious aims of Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish regions of the nation. Since the inception of Operation Iraqi Freedom, President Bush has maintained that the unity of the nation of Iraq was non-negotiable. In politics and in war, however, nothing should be non-negotiable.

This sounds vaguely familiar but Iraq is not a nation in any real sense, it was rather three separate concentration camps each with differing degrees of oppression. An answer? Maybe but there are numerous counties involved and they all want their answer as a result there will be none I am afraid because peace and prosperity is not the goal but getting ones way and individual National Sovereignty is!

Tags: | Turkey |
 
Unregistered User

January 17, 2010

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Marc, great analysis however you have made one error... the Palestinians are not Turkic!
 

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