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Political Will is Not Enough

When analysing the report from the Group of Experts on NATO's new Strategic Concept, in particular the data introduced under the "Guidance in the Past Decade" (p. 37) heading, it is worth stressing that the results of initiatives and summit directives are not very encouraging. Shortfalls are a killing factor for NATO - they generate a huge gap between political guidance, planning assumptions, and the capabilities provided by nations.

The Alliance suffers primarily from a lack of operational enablers to support combat deployable forces, such as strategic lift, attack and transportation helicopters, interoperability, and multinational logistics. Only the US is capable of providing all of the required operational capabilities. ISAF experience has proved that such circumstances seriously hamper expeditionary operations. Although NATO possesses an excellent planning capacity, the ability of member states to meet agreed targets is critical. Political will is not enough to accomplish assigned missions and tasks.

Holistic Approach is Key

ISAF consists of a huge number of actors constrained by limited political will with unequal combat roles, making the forces more vulnerable. A holistic approach is required to counter the unique challenges of the war in Afghanistan. Furthermore, a successful conclusion to this complex mission is the only way to prove NATO's credibility to an increasingly skeptical public.

NATO should conduct a world-wide information campaign to convince the public that contemporary civilization must deal with the multidimensional networked nature of today's transnational terror threat. As General James Mattis at Joint Forces Command recently said, the challenges of operating in a counterinsurgency can be greater than in large-scale conventional combat, "since the adversary has more flexibility to determine how, when, where, and whether to fight." Shaping the strategic and operational mission's future by coordinating activities between IOs, NGOs, the NATO Training Mission, and the US-led Coalition Command, with a special focus on the development of the Afghan National Security Forces, is strongly recommended. NATO must understand that now is the last chance to prove, and even enhance, its credibility.

Prerequisites for Success: Interoperability and Global Approach

NATO's engagement in the ISAF mission presents a demanding new challenge for force generation coordinated with the force planning process. The following recommendations can be offered:

• NATO Force Planning (with the associated discipline of Defence Planning) requires further synchronization and integration with the Standardization and Interoperability process and programme. Interoperability attainment must be kept as crucial factor in shaping capability requirements.
• NATO Force Generation requires a review by NATO Headquarters, command centers, and task forces. Further effort to introduce a global approach is required.

Deep reforms are required to develop a new formula for the operational force generation process because of the steady expansion of NATO's operational roles, both functionally and geographically. The Alliance should seek to move towards a situation where NATO's military transformation and its operational commitments are genuinely symbiotic rather than antagonistic. Again, a holistic approach is required.

The linkage between the reform of NATO's operational funding arrangements, force generation, and the progress of the Alliance’s broader military and political transformation goals should be made a central theme of the next Alliance Summit in November 2010. In the long term, a more effective force generation system can only complement the broader reforms in force structure and capability.

Comprehensive Political Guidance

Alliance members must make an effort to review the 'Comprehensive Political Guidance' (CPG) document, which sets priorities for NATO in regards to capability issues, planning disciplines, and intelligence. The review should focus on the capabilities of achieving CPG goals in the short, middle, and long-term. Such work is already underway, and the mainstreaming of CPG ideas must be continued.

Defense priorities must be made feasible, based on the calculation of political will. This will help to avoid the further generation of capability shortfalls and ultimately reduce the number of casualties on the battlefield.

Dr. Eng Jerzy Deren is a retired colonel conducting independent research on international security and a visiting professor. He has dealt with strategic planning and spent several years in hot spot regions with the UN, OSCE and NATO, including SME post with NATO's advisory team to Afghan Minister of Defence A.R. Wardak. He contributed to the development of the Afghan National Security System.

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