RSS

Vladimir Putin's recent plan for the formation of a Eurasian Union has caused quite an uproar in the Western media about a potential 'Russian empire', while other commentators have defended the plan as a welcome balance against Western influence. But considered from a different angle, the Eurasian Union may be neither, and Putin's plans may actually present the NATO allies with a real strategic opportunity.

The critics of the Russian foreign policy generally argue that Russia under Putin and Medvedev is simply rebuilding its former empire, sometimes using its leverage in energy resources, sometimes outright military aggression as in case of Georgia. In their interpretation, such efforts must be vigorously opposed, as the result will be nothing but Russia's domination of its near abroad that will prevent countries such as Ukraine and Georgia in making a free choice to join the international community of liberal democratic states. These arguments are often joined by those in the EU who believe that the Union's foreign policy should be based on stabilizing its neighborhood through spreading of its norms, functioning as a sort of a ‘neoliberal empire'.

However, Putin's latest initiative shows that the Russian political elite clearly realizes that their country's influence on its neighborhood can be achieved only if it brings benefits to both sides and is not based on force. Far from being a Russian empire, the Customs Union, which is to be a first step towards a full Eurasian Union, was joined by Kazakhstan and Belarus of their own sovereign decision and they will retain a proportionate control over the decision-making of the whole union. Where Russia once had relied on its hard currency reserves to gain from its neighbors political concessions through cheap provision of loans and direct subsidies of fuel, the new policy aims at elevating economic prospects of the entire region with Russia serving as a natural gravity well. While Russia will over time benefit by reinforcing its status as the region's financial and business centre, the other countries of the Union will be more competitive in agriculture and heavy industry such as steelmaking, gain investments for their backward, largely Soviet-style economies, just as profit from the competitive advantage of cheaper labor force.

For the EU and US, the Russian effort to lead a regional integration brings a possibility of an alternative form of international ordering. Without making any positive or negative judgments, the present international order can be described as the global hegemony of the US with the support of its NATO allies. This hegemony has been supported by the combined economic might of the US, EU and Japan, but as the economies of indebted Western countries will be experiencing their relative decline, their military control will inevitably wane too. The obvious alternative is that this hegemony will be replaced by another in the 'Chinese century'.

As this is naturally an inconvenient outcome for the European and American interests, maximum effort should be made to seek out other options, the most significant of which is a return to the principle of balance of power remodeled for the globalized world. While in the local space-bound world of the 19th century, nation-states presupposed the relative equality of countries, sovereignty in the postmodern world becomes intangible save for the largest of polities that possess a broad control over the world's natural and economic resources. Thus, political equality in the 21st century can be achieved only on the level of 'grand spaces', by political groupings that are sufficiently large and powerful to maintain an effective control over their territory that would balance out that of other similar entities.

A Eurasian Union is a clear step into the direction of such a multipolar world. As its plans develop from the current Customs Union to a full economic union, it is based on fully voluntary grounds and bringing benefits to all its members - not just the Russian giant. In such a world, a Eurasian Union could well become a strong ally of the EU and US and help them to ensure that their relative strength will remain preserved against the rising power of China.

Stanislav Maselnik is Managing Editor of The European Strategist magazine and holds an MA in European Studies from King's College London.