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The Arab world faces a deep political crisis that will cause a radical change in the political balance of the region. The chaos in Tunisia and Egypt is spreading to North Africa and Middle East, where the domino theory seems to be the rule of revolutions.

In this situation, what is the role of NATO? And above all: Might NATO have a specific role in leading Arab countries during their political transition?

From this point of view, it is important to make considerations about the two frameworks within which NATO is linked at the Arab world: the Mediterranean Dialogue (MD), the partnership stipulated in 1994 with the Maghreb countries (Mauritania, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt, Israel and Jordan); and the Istanbul Cooperation Initiative (ICI), created in the 2004, involving four of the six Gulf Cooperation Council member states (Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates).

Given these circumstances, I will focus on the Mediterranean Dialogue. During the Round Table on this topic organized in Rome on September 17, 2010 by the NATO Defense College, weakness of the multilateral and political dimension of the partnership emerged as one of the unsettled problems of the MD. If dimensions of practical and bilateral cooperation have achieved positive records, the same positive achievements have not been gained by the multilateral dimension of the Mediterranean Dialogue. Consequently, the lack of a strong chapeau politique at the base of the partnership implies the disengagement of the Atlantic organization from any internal political issue.

If NATO cannot have a determinant role in the political transition mechanisms of the Maghreb countries, the Alliance could be an important actor for the security in the Mediterranean Sea. Generally, the security of the Mediterranean Sea and consequently European security face four threats. In addition to the threat of terrorism, there is piracy, trafficking of armies and drugs, and illegal immigration. Regarding acts of piracy, currently the Mediterranean Sea is not a theater of such activities, but close to European waters, the Somali coasts present a challenge. Secondly, arms and drugs trafficking is a reality that, from a geographical point of view, threatens the Mediterranean: from the Balkan coasts to the Strait of Gibraltar. Thirdly, regarding illegal immigration, wide areas of the Mediterranean littoral are currently vulnerable.

The political crisis that currently characterizes the whole of Northern Africa could exacerbate the dangerousness of all these threats, with negative consequences for the security of European countries. In addition to the aforementioned threats, the destabilization in Egypt raises concern for the control of the Suez Canal. The Suez Canal is a major transit point for oil emanating from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea en route to the Mediterranean Sea for European consumption. Generally, in terms of energy alone, some 65 per cent of the oil and natural gas consumed in Western Europe pass through the Mediterranean each year, with major pipelines connecting Libya to Italy and Morocco to Spain.

An enlargement of the sphere of military cooperation, including maritime security and energy security, will be important for NATO's role in the current chaos and for other considerations with the Maghreb countries. Since the formation of the Mediterranean Dialogue, in the field of practical cooperation, the Countries of the south shore of the Mediterranean Sea and NATO have increased the number of joint activities. Today, these activities cover different areas of cooperation from ordinary military contact to exchange of information on maritime security and anti-terrorism. Indeed, this assumption has been adopted at NATO's 164th Military Committee Meeting on January 26 and 27, where military representatives from both the Mediterranean Dialogue and the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council agreed on the further development of Cooperative Security core tasks. They expressed their eagerness to explore options for a deeper military cooperation in order to be able to better tackle emerging security challenges such as terrorism, arms proliferation, drug trafficking, cyber attacks, energy protection and piracy.

From a short term perspective, NATO and the partners of the Mediterranean Dialogue can strengthen the cooperation in the Operation "Active Endeavour", established in 2001 to combat international terrorism by controlling sea and air traffic in the Mediterranean area.

As part of the comprehensive approach that characterizes the Mediterranean Dialogue, NATO can promote confidence-building and security measures in the Maghreb region with the shared objective to secure the Mediterranean Sea. The inclusive approach has the advantage to increase transparency and confidence with the development of concrete cooperation, which has not only technical, tactical and operational dimensions, but also involves confidence-building, coalition-making and general dialogue.

In situations of crisis and disorder, in a region where conflicts, intrastate instability and transnational threats are normal, the best action for NATO in the short term is to emphasize the positive results of the MD's practical dimensions In this particular case, the aim could be to reinforce the military cooperation for the maritime security.

Donatella Scatamacchia graduated from the University of Naples with a MA in International Relations and has a PhD offer by King's College London in Middle East and Mediterranean Studies. She is currently a Brussels based free-lance journalist.

Read related articles from atlantic-community.org members:

• Olivier Guitta: Al Qaeda's War of Succession in the Maghreb
• Alexandra Jonas: Mind the Process

This article was submitted for the atlantic-community.org's competition: "Empowering Women in International Relations." It coincides with the 10th Anniversary of UN resolution 1325 calling for an increased influence of women in all aspects of peace and security. The contest is sponsored by the U.S. Mission to NATO and the NATO Public Diplomacy Division.

You can find more information about the competition here.