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"The Warsaw Pact has not existed for almost 20 years," said Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, and he added, "But unfortunately for us at least, the expansion of NATO is being carried out with particular fervor." This, according to Russia, undermines European security and a new treaty is necessary, devoid of ideology and based on national interests.

What should be the form of this new organization? What role should Central and Eastern European countries play in shaping it? What if the idea fails?

Medvedev outlined his proposal at the World Policy Conference in France, and the French President Nicholas Sarkozy was the first European leader to support it. The European Security Treaty would cover areas such as arms control, national military build-ups, counter-terrorism and drug trafficking. It would also ensure that no single organization or state, including Russia, dominates European security.

Moscow's proposal is an opportunity for Central and Eastern European leaders to achieve at least two goals: to change their image of being anti-Russian and to steer attention towards emerging security problems related to climate change and poverty. That would show they are no longer obsessed with old-fashioned territorial defense based on the fear of Russia. Countries such as Poland are often more suspicious of Moscow than Western European states. Overcoming this sentiment will boost their credibility on the European scene.

The European Union already recognizes many security implications of climate change. A document drafted jointly by major EU institutions in March 2008 states that "The risks posed by climate change are real and its impacts are already taking place." It says that increased tensions over falling water supplies in the Middle East will affect the EU's energy security and economic interests. Global warming will also deepen poverty in developing countries, boosting migration. Melting Arctic ice, revealing access to vast natural resources, has already triggered disputes between Russia and other states owning Arctic Ocean coastline, such as the US and Canada.

If politicians omit these new challenges from the discussion on the new security agreement, and focus only on traditional military problems and national interests, the chances for success will decrease. And what is the danger of the status quo?

On the one hand Russia is recovering as a military power. It recently conducted the biggest war game since the end of Cold War. According to military analyst Pavel Felgenhauer, these maneuvers were aimed at "preparing for the eventuality of a nuclear war." Russia also agreed with Belarus to build a regional air defense system as a "shield against NATO." On the other hand, NATO's top commander, Gen. John Craddock, called for plans to protect Eastern Europe and Baltic States from potential Russian aggression.

The present Euro-Atlantic security structure guarantees insecurity and is ill-prepared to tackle new security threats. The new system requires forward-looking leaders. Are there any?

Kamil Zwolski is a researcher and teacher at the University of Salford, United Kingdom. He works in the field of European Union and international security.

Related materials from the Atlantic Community:

• Marek Swierczynski: NATO Must Strengthen Naval Power in the Baltic
• W. Hertel & F. Schöning: Defense Industry: New Protectionism on Both Sides of The Pond?
• Anna Nadgrodkiewicz: Stop the Wishful Thinking about Russia