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March 19, 2009

Member deleted

The Netherlands has held fast to its opposition to closer ties between the European Union and Serbia blocking of the implementation of the Stabilization and Association Agrteement (SAA). Dutch Foreign Minister Maxime Verhagen has said his country would continue to block a pre-membership accord with Serbia until it had met the Netherlands' definition of "full cooperation" with the war crimes tribunal in The Hague, Netherlands. However Serbia – and maybe Macedonia too - can have an attractive alternative to alliance with stagnated EU or to strategic short-sightedness of Washington. Good future could be with BRIC.

BRIC

BRIC is an acronym for the economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China combined. The general consensus is that the term was first prominently used in a Goldman Sachs (investment bank) report from 2003, which speculated that by 2050 these four economies would be wealthier than most of the current major economic powers. The BRIC thesis posits that China and India will become the world's dominant suppliers of manufactured goods and services, respectively, while Brazil and Russia will become similarly dominant as suppliers of raw materials. It's important to note that the Goldman Sachs thesis isn't that these countries are a political alliance (like the European Union) or a formal trading association - but they have the potential to form a powerful economic bloc.

Investing in the BRIC economies has been on the rise as increased economic globalization creates higher levels of world trade and commerce. Brazil, Russia, India and China have had strong growth in gross domestic product (GDP) over the past few decades, with recent rates much higher than those found in the United States and the Eurozone.

There are strong indications that the "four BRIC countries have been seeking to form a political club" or "alliance", and thereby converting "their growing economic power into greater geopolitical clout". One of the recent indications was from a BRIC Summit meeting in 2008, in Yekaterinburg, Russia.

EU vs. Serbia

While EU has used its “soft power” and promises to Serbia Russia has used hard currency with energy deal made in December 2008. In regards of Serbia’s European Perspective this does not necessary mean any swift from pro-Western to pro-Eastern side. From my point of view the situation and its prospected development will allow to Serbia a more balanced approach to its future. While energy will be on the top of EU’s priorities Serbia will have same time more leverage with its negotiations over SAA and other relations with the EU.

EU reports about Serbia's progress have mainly been quite positive, e.g. EU document "Guaranteeing Security in a Changing World" (Dec.2008) says Serbia is close to fulfilling all conditions for establishing close relations with the EU.

The membership in EU should not be overestimated – non membership does not mean to be outside Europe. Norway, Russia, young Caucasian republics all have achieved pragmatic relationship with EU without membership. The new Eastern Partnership (EaP) program has recently been distributed to European capitals. The new "belt of EU friends" at Russia's eastern and southern borders would include Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Moldova and Belarus. The European Neighborhood Policy, which the EU has pursued since 2004, is going to be replaced with the Eastern Partnership (EaP). Similar arrangements one may wait from EU with Turkey in near future, EU-Mediterranean dimension is on the way, new negotiations with Russia are starting about future programs. EU can be very creative finding out different forms for cooperation when needed.

Serbia’s choice

Serbia’s road towards its full European integration is likely to remain filled with considerable roadblocks. Now it is ICTY cooperation but big question will if Serbia is going to EU with or without Kosovo. Other obstacles can occur on the way. In any case EU is not miraculous power which brings economic and other development with membership status immediately.

While Serbia should not close the door to the EU it could parallel with the idea of a European prospective search a couple of other alternatives.

Looking strategic alliance with BRIC countries is realistic having in mind that none of them has recognized Kosovo’s independence. Therefore at political level cooperation with BRIC has better base than starting cooperation with countries that first bombed Serbia and after against agreements and international law are trying to amputate one part away from it.

Besides increasing cooperation with BRIC Serbia can develop her society from individual needs and priorities - not because of EU. Capacity building for better administration, removing obstacles and bottlenecks of SMEs, increasing transparency of public affairs, development rule & law sectors and democratic processes – all can be done without EU guidance.

One direction to concentrate is Serb Diaspora which only in North America is size about 2.5 million while it is in German speaking Europe about 1.1 million. This Diaspora creates a great opportunity to wide markets in these regions, they offer a considerable network and also a potential for “foreign” investments in Serbia.

Bottom line

World is much more than only European perspective, new potential can be found inside and outside of Serbia and West is only one of many directions.

More about topic in +30 articles in my BalkanBlog - address http://arirusila.wordpress.com

March 23, 2009

Goran Radakovic, , Silver Contributor (28)

"Secondly, this indicates that Serbia intends to switch its policy focus from Russia to the EU. Nevertheless, Russia's important influence on the Serbian state, society and the support offered during the Kosovo affair in 2008 will not disappear straight away."

Hi all.

When analysing the Balkans, there has been no firmer belief in the Western political circles than the one that Russia and Serbia are natural allies; that what happens within the borders of one country somehow obliges the other to act. I have read many times articles written by well respected journalists/analysts in the West that take for granted a very fragile and certainly unequal relationship between the two countries.

Hence, I think that the arguments about Serbia switching or chosing between Russia and the West is completely out of touch with what has been happening in Serbia since the fall of Milosevic. All governments since 2000. until this very day have firmly set their agenda on joining the EU and becoming part of a European project. There have been many problems, crisis and political chalenges, but the goal stays the same.

During the 78 days of NATO bombings, Serbia and Russia were not one day in an alliance nor have they been in an alliance since. Russia, beyond its national interests, has shown little suport for Serbia. It has not recognised the independence of Kosovo, but the same was done by China, Romania and Spain.

Russia has offered no financial guaranrees for the building of the South Stream through Serbia. So if the pipe is build - great, if not - well...However, Serbia has sold its vital national company in exchange, and at a fraction of a price. My point is that the so called alliance does not really exist, and that both political players are self-interested actors. But there is a serious power imbalance.

Regards

March 24, 2009

Dragoslav Rubez

Serbian milestone, a turning point in Serbs perspective, Serbia’s shift in future relation, a sound hairpin Serbians turn to the west, finding its soul the country goes again right way to Moscow, and more and more similar periodical trite expressions you can find through headlines coming up from time to time according to the reality of Serbia in permanent political processes in Europe and region widely. But we are living today world and all of the processes are stern and too much unrelenting not only in Europe particularly for those vacillating and agonized to over the crucial national decisions that are such severe from the modern world point of view that seems almost irrelevant even unserious to be discussing still in words of emotion, self empathy and ingenuous feelings even in terms of historical appetence and partialities, creed sympathies, compatriots preferentially relations, etc.
This is Europe and Serbia is European state as always has been through their heavy past although has been left so alone in various historical occasion without any support and help but very often for apparent background due to its own incomprehensible state of mind and oddish reasons in making decision referring to the future perspectives.
In that context allow me a few remarks of a/m brilliant elaborations, Mr. Olszewski expertly lined up Serbia’s opportunities but a bit ambiguously as to the process of democratization which is very paved in Serbia and to be honest and we have had more firm proves in that favour. But what Mr. Olszewski brilliantly guessing is when mentions the civil society building and the transformation of state as a complex issue of national and societal character of Serbia. Have we Serbs reconstructed civil society as an indispensable precondition for any further societal development in the field of further backing of industrial processes, trying reanimation of national famous agriculture, hydro industry, science, even arts when you see a myriad of incomprehensible entertains satellite TV’s which are so no adequate to the essence of this, one of the eldest European nation. Serbia is in hard position and it’s obvious. Harshly punished for the past, Serbia is a state in a new political context of modern era that remains without the part of its territory. It’s nothing new seeing historically but in this millenniums, seems like very warning and presents a key issue for full reassessment.
Regardinhg that, why to mystify so simple constitutional stuffs like European integration, it’s a natural strain of these continent inevitable circumstances and on that path there is a tough struggle waging in European institutions and the same is on European age on political trench among these Europeans positioned at the SAA process of implementation. What another Europe presents at the time being and what another is going to be in next decades but struggle preparatory era for final constitutional episode when is to be fully clear all about future administrative regional partition of our old mainland. Who will take more and who less, it’ll be seen and it’s a reason more for continuous insisting of top EU executives on indispensable political stability and required democratic standards. It seems so simple and so possible for all us in European arena on the path towards aforementioned goal with aim of final integration. Is Serbia being required to drop out of historical ties with Russia, No, even needs to be stimulate doing more in that context, Holy Father Benedict insists on that of all Europeans pointing up various previous ties. Why Serbia doesn’t use more of this kind of relationship to promote former very profitable policy of west-east balancing just simply maneuvering as a kind of European starting presentation.
Next, is Serbia being asked to catch up one’s fulfilling of criteria for membership, Yes, and it’s not difficult to be implemented. There is no another way for sure even is true the world is much more than European perspective, but apparently Serbia has no mighty capacity for risky turning to any other worlds side than European. A simple presumption to survive the current international relations.
In todays circumstances, the European integration is a good chance for Serbia state to finish its internal societal agenda with various International organisations attended on its soil aiming to further developing assistance. It is possible indeed particularly having in mind a wise political approach on a drafted democratic way in Serbia that having been promoted a few years ago and also by a little more opening of the state and freely accepting of the new from various international institute offering so much if you want that, of course.
Its all about diplomacy and democratic world playing that needs full human resources mobilisation and know-how of modern principle. No hard.

March 26, 2009

Vetmir Sinani, University of Siena, (4)

Serbia remains, however, the biggest and one of the most important countries among the Western Balkans. Consequently, the announcement of applying for the EU membership, expressed by the Serbian Deputy Prime Minister, Mr. Djelic, representing his government, but also the moderate part of the Serbian political class, has an enormous significance and a positive impact for the entire region. It gives certainly more hopes towards common solutions to avoid ongoing territorial and ethnic conflicts, where ethnic Serbs, for instance, in Kosovo and Bosnia - Herzegovina, supported indirectly by some politicians in Belgrade, are protagonists with their behaviour in front of the respective governments structures.
A wider EU perspective for the Republic of Serbia means further decisive steps of its government to meeting the so-called "Copenhagen political criterias". In other terms, Belgrade has to respect rigorously the EU prerogatives, rules and achievements, as the unconditional collaboration of the Serbian goevernment with the ICTY (Hague Tribunal), the recognizing of the sovereignty of Kosovo as well as the respect and determination of minority rights at constitutional level.
In this context, in order to achieve a definitive peace and stability among Western Balkan area, the promotion of a sustainable democratic system within each of its country, the building of the capacity to enhance an efficient governance and strengthen national dialog among government, local authorities and civil society including all ethnic groups are needed. A strong democratic basis of these states according to EU's principles over decades must be the first decisive step towards a better cooperation on the regional level, which means good neighbourly relations and co-operation in political, economic, cultural and social fields between them. In this framework, the EU bodies and institutions through the consolidation of a "soft-power" policy are supporting the Western Balkan states in their efforts to promote a better state-building process, almost more actively with the adoption of the Stability Pact for South Eastern Europe on June 1999 in Cologne, and its reaffirmation at a summit meeting in Sarajevo, on 30 July 1999.
With regards to EU - Serbia relations in the future, worth noting remains the fact, that Mr. Bozidar Djelic stated in several occasions that "Serbia will officially apply for EU membership this year". For sure, it is not the first statement in this direction, if we remember the suddenly announcement of the former Serbian Prime Minister, Kostunica, in his first days as government leader, that "the Serbs regard the EU as their common home". Nevertheless, these announcements have a great significance for Serbia itself, its neighbour countries and for the whole Europe.Yet it is unlikely, that EU would deliberately make the choice to neglect the Western Balkans and their conflict issues still to be resolved.
Concluding, on one side, the EU leaders had the need to create conditions for stability in the Western Balkan region, which still nowadays means a stability for whole Europe, through a more active role. On the other side, the governments of these countries, including Serbia, feel a double responsibility: in front of the people they represent and in front of the EU, as a consequence of its increased engagement in their region. The EU’s membership door, formally opened during the Thessaloniki European Council on June 2003 , has given to the objected states a more positive impulse for a better future, maybe the major reason for each of their government to overcome not only internal political and economic difficulties, but also conflicts at a regional level.