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September 15, 2009 |  10 comments |  Print | E-Mail Your Opinion  

The Road to Tehran Does Not Run Through Moscow

Jeffrey Mankoff: It is a priority of the USA to gain Russia’s support for a new round of UN sanctions against Iran. However, due to a number of economic, diplomatic, and strategic factors, it is very unlikely that Moscow will take meaningful steps against Tehran. Thus, the Obama Administration should circumvent Russia and find a way to solve the Iranian nuclear problem alone.

With Iran approaching what International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) head Mohammed ElBaradei calls "breakout capacity" in its alleged efforts to develop nuclear weapons, one of Washington's top priorities has been to gain Russian support for a new round of UN sanctions. Despite its own concerns about Iran's nuclear program, Russia continues to resist tougher sanctions. On Thursday, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov all but ruled out Russian support for further sanctions in the UN Security Council. Washington's long quest for Russian aid has failed, and the Obama Administration needs to shift its focus elsewhere while it still has time to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons.

Unlike the US and its allies, checking Iran's nuclear ambitions is not a major priority for Russia. Moscow remains puzzled by what it sees as the American obsession with Iran, and while Russian leaders have said repeatedly - and sincerely - that they would rather Iran not develop a nuclear weapons capability, Russia is unwilling to pay a significant price to prevent Iran from going nuclear.

Russian reticence stems from a number of sources. Given the West's reluctance to business with Tehran, Russian companies have found lucrative opportunities in Iran. Russo-Iranian trade has expanded rapidly, with turnover exceeding $3 billion last year, and slated to grow rapidly in the coming years. Much Russo-Iranian trade is in sectors considered strategically important by the Kremlin. Tehran is a major customer for Russia's defense industry, and Russian gas monopoly Gazprom is involved in developing Iran's vast South Pars gas field. Russia is also deeply involved in Iran's overt nuclear program, with firms connected to the Ministry of Atomic Energy building the reactor complex at Bushehr.

Despite their disagreements over Tehran's pursuit of nuclear weapons, Russia and Iran have forged a close diplomatic partnership elsewhere. This partnership took root during the late 1990s, when Moscow and Tehran worked together closely to end the bloody civil war in Tajikistan. Previously, Russia accused Iran of training and supplying Islamist guerrillas from Russia's North Caucasus during the first war in Chechnya (1994-96), and of exporting Islamic radicalism to Russia's neighbors in Central Asia. By the time the second war in Chechnya began in 1999, the Russo-Iranian rapprochement was already underway, and Iranian intervention was not an issue.

Given Iran's capability to export its radical ideology and to organize terrorist attacks abroad, Russian strategists are well aware that adopting a more confrontational posture towards Tehran, as the United States is urging, could have serious consequences. After a lull of several years, Russia's North Caucasus region is once again suffering serious instability, including a spate of deadly suicide attacks in Dagestan and Ingushetia. Though this instability stems from poverty and misrule at home, the Kremlin is aware of the potential for Islamic extremists to profit from local grievances, as happened in Chechnya a decade ago. Moscow wants to ensure the Iranian mullahs have no reason to re-inject themselves into the troubles of the North Caucasus.

Russia also benefits from the tense relationship between Tehran and the West: because of Western sanctions, Tehran cannot sell its gas to the lucrative European market. Instead, Russia and Gazprom remain Europe's dominant suppliers.

Were Iran to break out of its international isolation, either by abandoning its weapons program or undergoing regime change, European governments and energy companies would rush to complete deals that would reduce their dependence on Moscow. The consortium behind the planned Nabucco gas pipeline, which would bring 30 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas a year to Europe while bypassing Russia, are already clamoring for permission to do a deal with Tehran. The Kremlin has little incentive to do anything that would undermine its ability to use gas supplies as leverage with their European customers.

It is unlikely the US will be able to convince Russia to take any meaningful steps against Iran (Washington has already all but conceded its strongest bargaining chip, the planned anti-ballistic missile system in eastern Europe that Moscow opposes).

At this point, continuing to seek agreement with Moscow merely drags out the process while the Iranian program moves forward. The US should stop emphasizing the need for Russian cooperation, focus on developing a common front with key allies in Europe and the Middle East, and continue offering to negotiate directly with Tehran. Though Russian help might be useful in the abstract, Washin gton will have to find ways to solve the Iranian nuclear problem on its own.

Jeffrey Mankoff is associate director of International Security Studies at Yale University and adjunct fellow for Russian studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.

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Tags: | Iran | Russia | US | US-Russian relations |
 
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Unregistered User

September 15, 2009

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The road to Teheran through Moscow, Idon't think even Moscow is that desparate. But with the intended increased sanctions, Moscow cannot allow Iran to become another Gaza.
But the road should also not go through Wasington D.C.. Because USA's diplomatic
" success stories" read like this:
In 1952/ 53 Mohammed Mossadeq, the democratically elelcted Prime-Minister of Iran
began nationalizing of the Anglo-American Oil Company, then known as BP.
The Oil Company shared profits of 85% Btritish and 15% Iran ( sounds familiar), but the company withheld their records from the Iranian Government. The US and Britain then
started the now admitted CIA Operation, Operation Ajax, out of The US Embassy in Teheran to overthrow the democratically elected Government of Iran. The first coup d'etat
failed, but the second was successful and succeeded in installing the brutal dictatorship
of The Shah of Iran. US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright apologized in 2000 for the
US involvement.
Are we now fighting and suffering evolving consequences of such diplomacies, as one should now include Afghanistan, as It seems history is teaching us, our incompetence in learning from it.
Yet historic roots (uncovered), show us:
The Rulers and Kings of Persia-Iran and Afghanistan ,before WWI/ II and after, were very
committed to the well being and development of their countries. They did not want
Britain and Russia involved, they rather went to a far away country who had the interest and
technical expertise--Germany.
1935 and before and even after 1940 Germany was the best international friend to both countries. Germany had a prominence in both countries like no other country before.
How would Germany or with that Berlin fit into this equation?
As Henry Kissinger used to suggest, three (3) is always a preferred combination to get results.

HRF







Tags: | Iran/ Moscow |
 
Jakob  Schirmer

September 17, 2009

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In my opinion some of the "sources of Russian reticence" should rather imply a road to Tehran through Moscow than leaving the Russians outside. The Russian economic engagement in Iran gives Russia an enormous leverage effect. The closeness of Iran to the claimed Russian "near abroad" implies a sensitive Russian interst in the region, not to mention the Iranian influence on the islamic Caucasus. I think the conclusion of the above discussed reasons is: Russia has an enormous interest in a stable Iran and Transcaucasian area. Western policy towards Iran should utilise that!
 
Joshua  Posaner

September 18, 2009

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Thank you for your article Mr. Mankoff.

As the new NATO Secretary General accepted just this morning there is still no indication that Russia is prepared to assist on the Iran issue. However, support from a 'non western' Security Council member must, in my opinion, be considered vital to the legitimacy of any further sanctions. With Russia's support China may also follow and considering the current insistence that Tehran will refuse to negotiate the only conceivable way toward an amicable solution would be through a united Security Council threatening real sanctions.

Russia's influence in Iran essentially makes it imperative that Moscow is involved. There is no way to circumvent the issue around Russia that will not risk splitting the pack further. This scenario is framed within the NATO commitment to establish a strategic partnership with Russia and therefore Western leaders would be wise not to attempt to undermine them on the international stage, albeit on a different platform.

Despite special interests it is not in Moscow's interests to have a nuclear armed Iran.
 
Member deleted

September 18, 2009

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Thank you for a very interesting article Mr. Mankoff. I agree the US definitely needs to step up its cooperation with Europe and its Western allies in order to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. As for receiving support from Moscow, I believe it is necessary to continue negotiating with the Russians and encouraging them to support US policy toward Iran because they have close ties to Iran. Russia could be that bridge between the US/Europe and Iran due to the historical ties and trade between Russia and Iran. Using Russia as a mediator in anti-proliferation negotiations would be an incredible asset and Russian support of sanctions would greatly further Western interests. However, Russia is an unreliable ally in this case. As you point out, it is unlikely the US will have any luck in convincing Russia to act firmly against Iran. Most likely, Russia will continue refuse to take any firm actions against Iran because of the valuable trade relationship between the two. Russia does stand to benefit from a stable non-nuclear Iran however, so although they may not act against Iran they may sit back and watch as the US and Europe pressure Tehran to abandon its nuclear ambitions. As you suggest, the US must realize Russian support in this case is very unlikely and although it may be wise to continue pressuring Russia for support, the US should forge on ahead without Moscow's backing.
 
Unregistered User

September 20, 2009

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Two points I would like to lay out:

1) If you want to see Russia disengage from its "Iran Project" and firmly join the West's position, you will then need an analogous move from the west where it also disengages from other "political projects" in the former USSR. Such moves would include:

-Expelling the Baltic countries from the EU and NATO

-Disengaging from all of Russia's 14 ex-Soviet neighbours and supporting Russia's political position in all of them (especially in Ukraine and Georgia)

-Formally recognize that the Russia has a sphere of special influence in all of its' 14 ex-Soviet neighbours.

If you want Russia to follow western interests in Iran, you will need to follow Russia's interests in it's backyard. Only that would be a real quid pro quo. Maybe this issue will drag to the point where Obama realizes that trading Misha and Viktor/Yulia with Iranian nukes makes real sense.

2) It is fanciful to think that Iran would come running to the US's or Europe's arms and disengage from Russia were it to undergo any sort of regime change or somehow break out of isolation in some other way; simply put, Iran has diversified its interests as much as possible today (e.g., China, Turkey, Russia, India) under today's conditions and it will not bow to any powers or support their interests out of hand, either they be western, eastern or northern. The country has not forgotten about Operation Ajax in 1953 which installed the Shah, or the 1813 Treaty of Gulistan which ceded Persia's possessions in the Caucasus to Russia.
 
Member deleted

September 20, 2009

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One would like to look closer at a few issues here. Do we, as analysts, sometimes confuse heuristic devices - terminologies - for reality? Does such a fashion of 'bandwagoning' really exist as the heading "The Road to Teheran Does Not Run Through Moscow" tempts one to believe?

Iran is a state in its own right that has been quite proudly defending its sovereignty - over many, many years. The idea of some road to it running via some other state capital would be as much an anathema to Teheran as it would be hilarious for Moscow. The social capital of Moscow has been increasing manifold, even as the social capital of the NATO states have been shrinking steadily.

Instead of the usage of terms of roads to one state capital running via another (it only is evident in very few cases where some special relationship/agreements between two states renders one of the states in such a situation. Bhutan in South Asia is one example of it), it is more useful to examine the reasons that go into the increase or decrease in the social capital of certain states.

The European Union should begin to get itself more geared towards examining its social capital amidst other state capitals (outside the strict business of diplomacy and powermatics that a globalized world signifies). That generation of social capital is what marks the success of diplomacy and validates the costs of keeping embassies and citizens elsewhere - apart from mere business deals that can be negotiated elsewhere (many hotels provide the security and comfort of negotiating business deals).
For getting Teheran's attention or rather for getting Teheran to listen to other voices - from other state capitals - it is imperative to enter into a dialogue with Teheran at the muli-levels that already exist.

There are many ways of understanding Teheran's fears and wondering about what generates them including the many fears that Teheran seems to be generating. It is unlikely that the road to any world capital may be said to lie via some other state capital except in special cases. Such bandwagonings do not exist. Instead it would be more prudent to speak about social capitals that certain states may seem to be enjoying or not enjoying - owing to the success of their policies as well as their diplomacy.

Tags: | Iran |
 
Alexander Josef Pilic

September 21, 2009

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The interesting question is indeed how to convince Iran that it better does not further develop it's nuclear programme. Iran's leadership is determined to do so because they need the bomb as an insurance for their survival. Russia and to some degree also China seem determined to delay any further actions against Tehran and if it is just to limit US power.

On the other hand, it is the duty of any responsible government to limit the number of states who have access to nuclear weapons, especially if there is a clear risk of the involvement of terrorists like in the Iranian case. Unlike Iran itself, there is no other state promoting the destruction of a country so for what does Tehran really need nuclear weapons? For what do they need nuclear power as they control huge assets of oil and gas? This no question of souvereignity this is an assesment of a real threat...

Saying " Happy New Year" in Persian did not spark a revolution in Iran and neither a change of policies, so is regime change the next step? This is one thing the US could do on their own but unlike it was in Iraq, Washington is not involved in UN sanctions to control and limit the capabilities of the Iranian regime. Therefore there is no case (yet) for unilateral action and the Iranian president is smart enough not to make any aggressive steps to keep avoiding such a situation.

Presdent Obama will have to realize that the job of an American president is not a Mr. Nice Guy competition...
 
Member deleted

September 22, 2009

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One would hate to be seen batting for any state. But then there is something that has been mentioned here that would indicate a few things. First - the assumption that the existing Nuclear powers (or states that have access to nuclear explosive devices) remain as the only states who continue to have that 'privileged' access (of course the US had to actually use those devices during the Second World War to speeden Japan's surrender.).
Now there are other states that want access to such an explosive device. Infact much more powerful than those used by the US on Japanese civilians. Their point of contention is self-preservation as well as having the potential to inflict an equally devastating damage. This awareness of mutually-assured-destruction (MAD) is what is known as deterrence. Thus the nuclear weapons also have been seen as having induced peace (since the escalation of any war using non-nuclear weapons to a war using nuclear weapons is always possible). This also has led to newer spurt in the attempted development of newer weapon systems that can debilitate the 'enemy' without attracting such stunning visuals of Oppenheimer's abused memory-triggers when recalling his college education that included Ralph Waldo Emerson's poems. Oppenheimer has been considered one of the architects of the US nuclear industry/establishment.
Now the issue of why only certain states can aspire towards certain destructive capabilities and others can not is what stuff horrors are made up of. Amazing value-systems that barely seem to have been straining equally towards some constructive capacities! The EU via NATO shares the nuclear umbrella with North America.
No, it is not something as simple as saying Happy New Year in Persian that triggered the Iranian Rvolution. It was trying to teach them (their perceptions) to say Happy New Year in English with a nasal Las Vegas Casino accent and later in Hebrew that triggered the Iranian Revolution (with their fears of beginning to learn how to say Merry Christmas too).
However, what could nuclear weapons have to do with Oil & Gas reserves? Should Russia and China provide guarantees to Iran that they can provide the same nuclear umbrella to Iran, it seems highly improbable for Iran to halt its programmes.
The issue that can help is going about it differently: by attempting to halt the spread of nuclear weapons. That can only be done by first halting the needs for them. The kind of proliferation one is talking about is both horizontal and vertical. The Iranians actually do have people who can read and write and understand articles/views written in English. They also have enough money to be able to purchase subscriptions to many serious journals within acacdemia and other publications.
That means that they know about state sovereignty, nuclear deterrence and not wanting to have to wish Happy New Year in Persian (if it is not the Persian New Year) or even a Merry Christmas. However, the concern remains, if any, in their wanting to have the rest of the world want to say Happy Eid in Persian or even Arabic (and it is not the Gregorian Calendar they would be referring to).
Between these kind of linguistic turns mired in history and Oppenhiemer's abusive memory factors (the context proved wrong) as well as Japan's memories - one has to be careful over how one treads the waters there. Russia and China are as pragmatic as the NATO leadership/states would be: over the whys of nuclear weapons. Interesting, indeed. Is it not? But the question remains: what is the relationship between nuclear weapons and oil and gas reserves?
That perhaps gets easily answered when one talks about a few things: like nuclear weapons and nuclear power (that evokes gas & oil scenario) are not the same, even though the assumption that gas & oil reserves should preclude the desire for nuclear power (as energy) is patently wrong and mistaken.
Tags: | notes | history | nuclear weapons |
 
Unregistered User

September 22, 2009

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Good to see you Jeff here. It was my pleasure to host you in Kyrgyzstan and it was funny to watch the talk between you and the Russian official, who is indeed very anti-American. There is a reason for that and that is almost religious - worshiping in Kremlin, which, unfortunately not always a just, kind and honest idol. Anyway, I believe that somewhen many Russians will come to understanding that their government is not the Almighty.

Meanwhile, the best strategy for developing a balance of power is to pay closer attention to the language policies of non-Russian subjects of the Russian Federation. Tens of ethnic groups are under disappearance due to the Kremlin's oppression. Tatars, Chechens, Yakuts, Bashkirs, Chuvashs, and other non-Russian minorities need independent development, but cannot even dream off right now, since they are not aware of many thins that freedom gives. Therefore, the democratic countries must help those groups to exercise their own language and develop their identity. This way many Russians may come to understanding that democracy is better than authoritarianism.
 
Dara  Hallinan

October 17, 2009

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Askarbek, I am not sure if I understood correctly, but i believe you were suggesting direct supprot for certain minorities in the Russian Federation as a leverage tool.

The Russian Federation has a unique makeup and is largely formed of different ethnic groups (the number of ethnic 'Russians' is in fact relatively small compared to the total population). Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the question of the potential fragmentation of the 'Russian Federation' has been one of the most consistent and powerful questions in the formation of all aspects of Russian policy.

This must be considered in the light of an ever increasing dislike (justified or not) for the interference of foreign actors on or in aspects of traditional Russian sovereign space.

Considered in this way it would be singularly counter-productive to consider supporting minority groups within the federation as means toward democratic leverage for either the groups themselves or for the parties attempting to exert influence.

 

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