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May 28, 2008 |  4 comments |  Print | E-Mail Atlantic Memos  

Memo 6

NATO and Russia: Relationship Must be Redefined

Memo 6: Members of the Atlantic Community are convinced that NATO needs to redefine its future role and relationship with Russia. Fundamental change, however, is unlikely to occur in the near future and the NATO-Russian relationship may worsen.


The Bucharest Summit dispute about NATO enlargement and the appropriateness of Membership Action Plans (MAPs) for Georgia and Ukraine renewed the long postponed debate on NATO-Russian relations. How should NATO deal with Russia's desire for great power status? Could NATO enlargement to Eastern Europe succeed without alienating Russia?

With regard to the upcoming work on NATO's New Strategic Concept, the three main arguments concerning NATO-Russia relations from the authors and commenters on Atlantic Community should be kept in mind:

1. Is enlargement worth the trouble with Russia?
Most Atlantic Community members agree that in a post Cold War world, NATO faces global security issues. As Dr. Andre Kelleners points out, NATO's focus has shifted from power-balancing to questions of world terrorism, nuclear proliferation, and totalitarian regimes. Global intergovernmental cooperation is crucial to successfully dealing with these threats and NATO enlargement is therefore necessary. The majority of Atlantic Community Members agree with this assessment and in the recent Atlantic Community survey, European and US Foreign Policy analysts and Atlantic Community members expressed strong support for Ukraine's NATO aspiration. Furthermore, most survey participants from Eastern Europe voted in favor of a swift enlargement process. Dr. Tomas Ehler argues that offering MAPs to former Warsaw Pact countries would support their reform activity and draw them closer to western democratic values. Andris Spruds also emphasizes the potentially stabilizing role which MAPs could play.

2. The need for a special partnership with Russia.
From a Russian perspective, both NATO itself and NATO expansion are threats. As Dr. Andreas Umland explains: "the roots of Russian statehood lie in Kyiv and Crimea hosts a major Russian naval base." Russia will therefore not be willing to give up this region. Dr. Hans Giessmann emphasizes that we must "prevent the East-West ice age" from returning and strongly suggests including Russia in the enlargement debate. Alienating Russia by expanding NATO to its borders is not wise at a time when Europe and the US "hope to move on from the Putin era of confrontation" says Dr. Kelleners. Other Atlantic Community members emphasize that Europeans need Russia as a partner. Hans-Ulrich Klose stresses that Europe longs for Russian cooperation in security matters and depends on Russian energy reserves. Kelleners therefore suggests that NATO should seek to "carve out a special role of some other sort for Russia" in which Russia would have more than its current partnership status, but would not be integrated into NATO's military command structures.

3. Russia's desire for great power status.
While most commenters believe a special partnership with Russia is needed, they also point out that "Russia is doing everything that it can to reemerge as a major world player" and would therefore likely reject such a partnership. Lukas Vitalius further elaborates and writes: "Russia has no intention [of] joining NATO or the EU. It is a power of its own." Ilyas Mohsin suggests that Russia is too suspicious of western countries trying to gain influence over Russian energy reserves to consider integration. Donald Stadler also fears that although integrating Russia into NATO structures would ease the Russian perception of being threatened, the alliance would become meaningless if its former reason for creation vanished. Stadler additionally points to the problem of NATO's raison d'etre after the end of the Cold War by asking if US participation in NATO is still necessary.

Atlantic Memos showcase the best ideas and arguments from debates in the Open Think Tank on www.atlantic-community.org. The recommendations expressed above come from your Atlantic Community - please take the next step and help us spread the word. You can download a PDF copy of this Atlantic Memo to distribute to your local or national decision-makers.

Written by Johanna Gregor

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Tags: | strategic concept | NATO | Russia |
 
Comments
Heinrich  Bonnenberg

June 6, 2008

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Ireland, Sweden, Finland, Austria, Malta, and Cyprus are not members of NATO, and France not military, but all are members of EU. That could and should be a model for Ukraine.
 
ilyas m mohsin

July 1, 2008

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The US and EU will have to offer some decent bait to the Russians which can balance the latter' longing for a great-power status with the
territorial claims she has against others. As yet, Russia would have no interest in joining NATO. A lot would depend on how the next US President can salvage his counry' goodwill/ prestige.
 
Unregistered User

August 15, 2008

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There are many prophecies saying that Russia is going to betray the west and attack in three tank wedges from north, east and south. I personally do not believe to prophecies but raise a rational question whether if something like that occurs - are we able to cope with it and fight it?

Based on prophecies (recent and hundreds of years old)

1) Prague is going to be destroyed (attack due to radar?)
2) whole tank attack will happen suddenly (in couple of days) - russians are going to move days and nights (they took former Czechoslovakia in a day)
3) attack should start late July
4) attack from east will be pointed to reach Rhein (this area will be heavilly damaged)

more is here
http://www.jrnyquist.com/may14/new_page_2.htm

My question is, are we sure that we could cope with it now? Based on history we cannot believe Russia (1969 Czechoslovakia), Katyn (1939). They cannot believe us (Napoleon 1812) and Hitler (1941). Is there a chance for cooperation and partnership? I think that it would be like to marry to the family of canibals. You are the family but you still could be a next course.

My questions on NATO would be:
1) what is the emergency plan? do we have a plan what to exactly do when something like that happens? there will be no time for 72 hours mobilisation. tanks will be allready in Germany.
2) do we have a real action what to do with Scandinavia? Sweden and Finnland are not part of NATO. Are we going to protect them of sacrify them as former Czechoslovakia in 1938? The history proved that it was a big mistatke. Do we need to discuss this issue or we have a plan that whatever happens in Scandinavia we fight for them from the first minute.
3) Are we able to fight in the summer (vacations, heat). Is NATO army able to counterattack within 12 hours after the attack?
4) Do we have a plan how to destroy totally the infrastructure (bridges, roads, tunnels, fuels tanks) to slow down army from the east? They can be approaching 700 kms per day. If we have red allarm right now, do special teams now what to destroy right now? Or a "meeting" has to be held and time wasted? Do we have exact plan what to destroy immediately to slow them down and have chance to regroup in the mid Europe?
5) Do we have at each country of NATO let say 5,000 anti aircraft portable rockets and anti tank missiles? Small European countries cannot oppose large forces but could slow them down and weaken them and destroy the morale of Russian troops.
6) Russians have new tanks - T 90 - they have a special antimissile system. Is it possible to equip troops also with analog rockets?
7) Is there just one universal commander of NATO troops in Europe or there is a concensus of all heads of armies of Europe? Does NATO has the ability to strike back immediately of we would be holding meetings until they could reach Rhine?
8) Are there plans to let the US close their bases in Europe? I hope that not because it is much safer to have them here.
9) Russians used to have 120 ths tanks in 1990. They declare to have arround 24 ths now. Are we sure they do not have more? Are we satisfied that there are no other 25,000 tanks that are stored but never have been destroyed.
10) Is NATO command flexible?

I come from former Czechoslovakia and we have some experience with Rusians and also how is NATO flexible in acting. I am quite sceptic.

I hope that these issues would be addressed because it is better to be worried than sorry.

Based on prophecies this attack is going to be unexpected, sneaky and extremly fast. And suppose to destroy most of the Europe.

Thank you

Citizen
 
Unregistered User

November 12, 2008

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The recent Russia-Georgia conflict highlights the need for a better working relationship between not only NATO and Russia, but Russia and the rest of the western hemisphere. United States policy toward Russia in recent years can only be defined as neglectful and irresponsible. The US (a major player in NATO no doubt) has repeatedly ignored Russian sentiments on a number of issues effectively circumventing all dissents. The US missile defense system in Central and Eastern European states, NATO's support of Kosovo, and Georgian troops being trained by US military personnel have served as clear indications that the US/NATO are not taking Russia seriously. Surely both sides have come together to discuss these issues, but discussion and action seem to be divorced from one another in this instance. Ignoring or constantly being at odds with Russia, a country vying for a position as a world power, is a misconstrued policy in an increasingly multi-polar world. Leadership from NATO and the US must now start to focus on cooperation rather than hegemonic dominance. Working with Russia (and other emerging states such as China and Brazil) to set an example through international norms in the form of democratic values, justice and trade (to name a few) should be paramount in future international policy. After all creating international norms seems to be within NATO's mandate.
Furthermore, NATO is a resounding vestige of the Cold War that was created in 1949 to defend against the Soviet Union and create balance of power with the Warsaw countries. Current expansion of this somewhat archaic military alliance to Russian border states, coupled with Russian President Medvedev advancement of the Brezhnev Doctrine (much like US Monroe Doctrine, written by John Quincy Adams, which states that the US has the right to intervene in it's hemisphere to protect its interests) comes dangerously close to Cold War rhetoric. Clearly there needs to be better leadership charged with finding responsible solutions to the complicated problems surrounding the Russian-NATO relationship. In this increasingly multi-polar world cooperation should be a the top of the list.
Tags: | Russia |
 

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