Prof.
Thomas Straubhaar of the Hamburg
Institute of International Economics argued on
atlantic-community.org that the global economy could benefit from the $100
barrel, because it will drive energy saving and economic efficiency, lead to
new investment in oil fields, and benefit Germany as oil rich countries buy
high quality goods.
Atlantic-community.org members, however, were more
sceptical of this analysis and worry about the economic and security
consequences of the high oil price. Here is a summary of their main arguments
and conclusions.
1. The $100 barrel: In the short term this is no
blessing.
There is a strong consensus that in the short run
there is little to benefit from a growing oil price. Louis
Schirano is adamant that the benefits of the $100 barrel are
outweighed by the costs: the impending global economic slowdown led by possible
recession in the US, the increasing US trade deficit caused by the oil price
rise in the face of a weakening dollar (and the global effects), and the
erratic behaviour of Russia. Jens
Laurson notes that for oil and gas importing countries such as
Germany, any benefit from increased exports would be offset by increased costs
of production.
2. The high oil price will spur security
problems.
James
Cricks argues that the reallocation of wealth to countries
such as Russia and Iran will be detrimental to global security. Likewise Jens
Laurson is concerned about the increasingly errant behaviour of
emboldened oil states and the threat that they pose to the West, not to mention
the cost they pose to their own people. Andreas
Kern went even further, saying that rising oil prices added to
existing Dutch-disease problems in emerging resource exporting economies.
In relation to this, however, there was agreement that
growing energy security concerns, especially in the US, will encourage energy
saving and the development of alternatives. Luke
Nichter pointed out that those who previously found "green" energy saving initiatives
unpalatable, may find a new rallying point in energy security, although this
could also lead to dangerously insular economic nationalism.
3. Europe must recognise that the US is
different.
Contributors
worried that Europeans did not accept the differing attitudes in the US towards
climate change. In William
Schirano's opinion, setting the bar too high could create another
area where transatlantic relations suffer. James
Cricks pointed out that it is not just SUVs that create greater
demand for oil in the US - for instance, population density in the US is seven
times lower than in Germany which means that mass transport is not always an
option, a view also expressed by Louis
Schirano.
To
those taking part in the debate, the increased development of alternative
energy sources was an obvious result of increased oil prices. In
the long run energy alternatives will probably originate from the West, claims Luke
Nichter. Andre
Kelleners adds that there may be benefits through alternative energy development in
economies that are human capital intensive. However, he
concludes, the long term benefit to the environment will be no condolence for
those feeling the effects today.
Atlantic Memos showcase the best ideas and arguments from debates in the Open Think Tank on atlantic-community.org. All policy recommendations in this document were made by registered members of the Atlantic Community.


