Afghanistan 2011: Last Call for a Smart Economic Policy
Andrew Kuchins | The Washington Quarterly | Spring 2011
As the Obama Administration intends to begin the gradual withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan this year, time is running out on the international community in its efforts to pacify the rebellious country on the Hindu Kush. Military force by itself can never achieve this. What the country needs is a functioning economy. Efforts in this context have thus far focused exclusively on Afghanistan itself and on neighboring Pakistan. However, a smart economic strategy needs to integrate Afghanistan’s economy into Central Asia in order to revive its historic role as a hub for trade and transport in the region.
After all, in terms of geography, the country could hardly be located more advantageously – in particular with an eye to the continuing rise of China. The resurgence of the Middle Kingdom has given renewed importance to the old trade routes of the Silk Road. All roads lead through Afghanistan: From China to Europe and the Middle East, from Central to South Asia. Goods can easily be transported from Iran to Western China via Afghanistan. According to estimates, India could use the route through Central Asia to ship products worth over $100 billion to Europe and the Middle East by 2015. The land route between Europe and Asia would connect the two most densely populated areas in the world. This trade would also involve routes through the Caspian and Black Sea regions and revive them economically. For Afghanistan, income from tariffs and taxes could stimulate sustainable economic growth that would allow much needed investment in infrastructure. Critics of such a vision often cite the instable security situation and bad roads in Afghanistan as a major impediment to any such undertakings. It is true that the transportation infrastructure in Afghanistan is rudimentary: transport by rail or commercial air is practically non-existent, no pipelines dare as of yet to cross the territory, and high-voltage power lines are few in number. However, the real problem in Afghanistan is the lack of a political will to act, even though individual Afghan politicians such as the Foreign Minister and the economic adviser of the Kabul government advocate the merits of a regional development agenda. In Washington meanwhile, anything that smacks of nation-building is politically too hot a topic to touch. US taxpayers are reluctant to approve of the requisite monies in difficult economic times.
This notwithstanding a regional economic strategy is the only way out of the current impasse. In order to mobile the necessary political will on both sides, the US President must actively lead on this issue. Only the United States is in a position to reconcile the disparate interests of regional powers. Obama needs to convince them that it is crucial that Afghanistan be transformed into a center for transit and trade in the region for the purpose of promoting sustainable economic growth in the entire region. After all, in this particular instance, it is not a question of national building per se, but of ensuring that the necessary prerequisites are in place for the Afghans to generate sufficient income to build up their own state. Should these efforts fail, the alternative – namely that Afghanistan cannot be pacified – would mean that the situation on the Hindu Kush will continue to haunt the international community for decades to come.
This summary was prepared by the Atlantic Community editorial team from "A Truly Regional Economic Strategy for Afghanistan" published here by the Washington Quarterly.
