After Georgia: Russia's Anxious Neighbors
Alexander Nicoll & Sarah Johnstone | IISS | October 2008
The Georgia conflict is forcing Russia's neighbors to rethink their relationships with Russia as well as with the West. Through military action, Russia has demonstrated how far it is willing to go to protect its national interests. Western rhetorical reactions to the crisis have dashed hopes that a partnership between post-Soviet states and the US, NATO or the EU could help retain their territorial integrity.
Shortly after the end of the Soviet era, the south-Caucasian region of Nagorno-Karabkh aspired to become part of the Armenian SSR, leading to a civil war that left over 30,000 dead. A cease-fire was reached in 1994, but the conflict is still unresolved. According to international law, Nagorno-Karabkh belongs to Azerbaijan, but like South Ossetia and Abkhazia, it is a de facto state. For years, both sides of the conflict have been preparing for another confrontation and no peacekeeping forces are present on the borders. Calls are now being made, especially from Azerbaijan, for an ultimate military solution.
As a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), Armenia is seeking security guarantees from the CSTO's most dominant member: Russia. It is still unclear what lessons the two parties have drawn from the war in Georgia, however, it is clear that both will try to woo Russia to their own side.
Recently, Russia's Gazprom made a lucrative offer to the government in Baku to buy national gas reserves. Despite strong opposition from the US as well as Europe, Azerbeijan seems as if it is likely to sell.
Russian-Ukrainian relations are on the rocks which is causing President Yushchenko's popularity along with general positive feelings surrounding western ties and NATO membership to dwindle. According to a poll conducted in May of 2008, only 21% of Ukrainians still support NATO membership. The fear of worsening relationships with Russia is growing, and Moscow has warned that any steps toward NATO membership will be treated as threats with various counteractions, ranging from the introduction of a visa requirement for Ukrainians to aiming missiles at Kiev. On top of that, there is always the ever-present threat to raise gas prices, which would most likely devastate the Ukrainian economy.
Most of Russia's central Asian neighboring states have so far avoided having to make a choice between Russia and the West. Only Uzbekistan has made a clear choice for Russia. In reaction to international criticism surrounding its deadly government crackdown on a public rally in 2005, Uzbekistan closed a US military base and has striven for Russian ties.
The remaining central Asian states are stuck in a strategic dilemma between a weakened West and an increasingly aggressive Russia and are, therefore, looking with new energy to China and the Gulf States in the search for future business partners.
This summary was prepared by the Atlantic Community editorial team from "Anxious neighbours: The concerns of former Soviet states" published here by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, September 2008.
Related materials from the Atlantic Community:
- Marek Swierczynski: NATO Must Strengthen Naval Power in the Baltic
- Anna Nadgrodkiewicz: Stop the Wishful Thinking about Russia
- Mark Brzezinski: Shared Interests
Thu, Nov 20th 2008, 07:46
Ari Rusila, Freelancer, Platinum Contributor (185)
Power supergrid plan
EU’s Power supergrid plan is partly designed to decrease EU’s dependence about Russian gas. The Timesonline got look about plan and describes it as follows (Source: Timesonline):
"The building blocks of the proposed supergrid would be new cables linking North Sea wind farms, and a network patching together the disparate electricity grids of the Baltic region and the countries bordering the Mediterranean, according to a blueprint drawn up by the European Commission. EU states will also be asked to pay for at least two ambitious gas pipelines to bring in supplies from Central Asia and Africa. The plans also call for a Community Gas Ring, or a network allowing EU countries to share supplies if Russia turns off the taps."
The EU Energy Security Plan notes that Europe imports 61 per cent of its gas, a figure projected to rise to 73 per cent by 2020. Russia sells about two-fifths of the total, including the entire supply of several countries.
The EU Energy Security Plan notes that Europe imports 61 per cent of its gas, a figure projected to rise to 73 per cent by 2020. Russia sells about two-fifths of the total, including the entire supply of several countries.
Same time in South…
One part of energy game is the southern energy corridor. During 2008 Russia has put also the southern corridor pipeline in doubts. Gazprom has override “Nabucco” with its rival “SouthStream” project. Same time GUUAM Group in Caucasus – cooperation body supported by US energy giants and military-industrial-complex - is breaking up as well rest of US “Silk Road Strategy”. (More about this in my previous article ”War on pipes” 9/9/2008 from my Archives:Blog - http://arirusila.wordpress.com)
…and in North
Also a day before Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has questioned the construction of the Nord Stream pipeline for the first time since the signing of the agreement with Germany to establish the gas delivery network, as gas is set to become cheaper along with the drop in oil prices.
"Europe must decide whether it needs this pipeline or not," Mr Putin told Finnish Prime Minister Matti Vanhanen on Wednesday (12 November) at a meeting in Moscow. "If you don't, we will build liquefaction plants and send gas to world markets, including to European markets. But it will be simply more expensive for you," he added.
The Baltic states and Poland strongly oppose the project, concerned they would be cut off from existing gas infrastructure with Russia, as Moscow would probably channel most of the gas deliveries through the direct pipeline to Germany. Sweden also opposes the project due to environmental concerns, echoed by MEPs, who have called for a new investigation into the pipeline's impact on the environment. Finland, one of several EU states that has a say in approving the project, will conduct an environmental review of the plan next year, Mr Vanhanen said after the meeting with his Russian counterpart on Wednesday. (Source EUobserver.com)
So for Baltic states and Poland Nord Stream is more political and partly economical question, for Germany mainly economical topic and for Sweden and Finland mostly environmental question.
The bottom line
It is interesting to see how the power game will be developing. How big share gas, oil and wind will claim from energy markets? Where the pipes will be? How environmental and economical aspects will match with political aims? The game is still open.
More views one may find from my BalkanBlog - http://arirusila.wordpress.com