China and India: Two Great Powers Duel in the Indian Ocean
Robert D.Kaplan | Rheinischer Merkur | March 2009
The Indian Ocean is well on the way to becoming the location of global conflict in the 21st century. Today the third largest body of water on the Earth is already considered the most important cross national sea route. And its importance is on the rise. The coasts of the Indian Ocean are increasingly developing into a huge energy trading network. This also applies to the Eastern African coasts. China and India play the lead roles in the race to increase the sphere of influence in ports and transport routes. Both emerging giants will put up a dogged power struggle amongst great powers in these waters.
The pursuit of great-power status by both countries combined with their desire to secure energy supply, forces them to turn their attention toward the high seas. India is already the fourth largest consumer of energy in the world - after the US, China and Japan. 33% of its energy demand will be covered by crude oil. Of that they must import 65%. In the future, 90% of Indian oil imports could come from the Persian Gulf. India is therefore trying to expand its influence from the Persian plateau to the Gulf of Thailand. At the same time, Tehran has been giving encouragement to the Indian government. In 2005 both sides signed a billion-dollar deal, whereby between 2009 and 2034 Iran will deliver 7.5 million tons of liquid gas to India. Furthermore, a gas pipeline from Iran through Pakistan to India is under discussion. The project would closely join South and East Asia. Indian attempts to increase their area of influence to the east as well as to the west strongly clashes with China's interests. Beijing is pursuing a "pearl necklace strategy" - a network of ports in foreign countries along the north coast of the Indian Ocean. In addition China is considering building a canal through the Isthmus of Kra in Thailand. Such a project could shift the lasting distribution of power in China's favor. Shipping vessels and the navy give the Chinese easy access to oceans ranging from East Africa to Japan and the Korean peninsula.
For the US current developments in Asia have two geopolitical consequences. Firstly, the battle to influence countries near the southern border of the former Soviet Union would intensify; secondly, the growing presence of China and India in the Indian Ocean represents a particular strategic challenge. The US should take advantage of every opportunity to integrate the Chinese Navy into international alliances. The shared business interests of China and India ultimately force both countries to co-operate. The US should not attract attention through dominance, but focus on stabilizing and balancing regional powers. At the same time, the Indian Ocean is a sea route for global trade, energy and smuggling. A balance of interests between the future sea powers would be the most important condition, so that the risk of conflict between countries remains small and the burden of inspection and control can be shared.
This summary was prepared by the Atlantic Community editorial team from "Machtkampf zu Wasser," published here by Rheinischer Merkur, March 2009.
