Flip-flopping on Iran Encourages Deception
Michael Rubin, American Enterprise Institute | August 14, 2008
Now that the Bush administration has reneged on its hard line against negotiations, Iran does not take US ultimatums seriously. ++ Where progressives see flexibility, Iranian officials see weakness.++ As long as there are no sanctions, Iran could import all the technology they need throughout negotiations. ++ Diplomacy with an insincere opponent does more harm than good. ++ With its diplomatic card wasted, the next US President will have a hard choice: Allow Iran to go nuclear or turn to far more dangerous measures.
Fri, Aug 15th 2008, 09:04
Udo von Massenbach
By Haaretz Editorial
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1011414.html
Last update - 03:28 14/08/2008
The warning conveyed by Washington to Israel not to attack Iran, and its demand of Jerusalem not to surprise it with such an attack, should not startle us. The Bush administration, which during its two terms in office used the threat of war as a main strategy for curbing Iran's nuclear capabilities, has recently adopted a new policy that does not correspond with Israel's belligerent declarations.
The U.S. administration, which along with the four permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany has signed a package of incentives for Iran, is now willing at most to promote additional economic sanctions, and is playing down the military option.
Tehran, which gave a vague answer to the offer of incentives and made it clear that it will not stop enriching uranium, is canvassing countries that are also liable to block the new proposal for sanctions when the time comes. Today Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is expected to arrive on a working visit to Turkey. There he will sign, among other things, an agreement worth about $600 million for the joint development of gas fields in Iran and the supply of gas from Iran to Europe via Turkey.
Iranian negotiations with India and Pakistan over an oil pipeline are continuing; China is continuing to invest in Iran and buy tremendous amounts of oil from it; Europe, which is anxiously observing the developments in the Caucasus and is worried about a total dependence on oil from Russia, is likely to promote the Nabucco pipeline project, which is scheduled to transport gas from Iran via Turkey. Washington, which seeks to reach an agreement in the coming weeks about U.S. forces in Iraq, needs Iran as a security belt for quiet in Iraq. Added to all this are the economic agreements signed with Iraq by Switzerland and Germany.
The sum of these economic and strategic interests changes the issue of the Iranian nuclear program from a casus belli to a dispute that must be solved by diplomatic means. Turkey, a strategic ally of Israel, is taking on a heavy responsibility in its attempt to mediate between Iran and the West, and it should not be condemned for this, especially at a time when Washington is willing to listen to new proposals.
Israel, which justifiably sees the threat presented by Iran, is liable to find itself in an inferior position in the face of European countries' diplomatic ambitions, the economic interests of China and Russia and the American pressure for quiet in Iraq. This requires Israel to maneuver wisely and cautiously so as not to render itself an isolated warmonger, and from there a regional threat. This is especially the case when it is clear that the region, Iran and the great powers all understand that Israel's military option has not evaporated and that faced with an existential, genuine and immediate threat, Israel will not take foreign interests into consideration.
At the same time, Israel must allow diplomatic efforts to move ahead, lower the tone of the military threat and understand that dialogue with Iran is essential to an attempt to reduce its military motivation.