Iran Elections Stir Concern
Sami Moubayed, Forward Magazine | March 17, 2009
The upcoming Arab summit is causing a lot of diplomatic activity in the Middle East. ++ Three Gulf states have warned Qatar that if Iran attends the meeting their representation will weaken, which marks a shift from the usual “fearful” attitudes towards Iran. ++ The Arab world is holding its breath as the upcoming presidential election in Iran creates hope for reform. ++ Israel is equally fearful of the possible re-election of Ahmadinejad. ++ Meanwhile, Iranian sceptics are still suspicious of Obama’s motives in pushing for talks.
Tue, Mar 17th 2009, 14:57
Colette Grace Mazzucelli, Hofstra University / New York University, Platinum Contributor (333)
Thank you for your contribution. The latest news about the upcoming elections in Iran suggests that there is no internal consensus about a possible 'grand bargain' with the United States regarding a host of issues in the Middle East region and beyond. This does not mean that the United States and its allies should remain fixated on the nuclear issue. Quiet diplomacy is likely to continue at the working level to try and enhance confidence building in those areas previously identified as common interests between Iran and the P5+1, particularly related to Afghanistan.
The regional security dimension is a priority in terms of recognizing the braking mechanism Iran can use, not only in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, but also in Iraq as reconstruction continues. Regional integration is critical in any broader security arrangement that may be discussed in the coming months predicated on a recognition that the nuclear issue serves to unite Iranians behind a nationalist platform. This is significant as the Iranian state fails to provide those services, economic and social, which the youth in country increasingly seek as a means to a better future in their daily lives.
With the many competing forces in Iran that make governance opaque to the outside world, the nuclear issue serves as a focal point to rally elites and masses alike. The United States can avoid attributing to Iran a power it does not have in region. Its influence is stronger in the region in large part owing to circumstances Iran inherited from the war in Iraq. Iran's power, as determined by economic and social indicators, has not risen. Instead with the fall in oil prices, Iran must return to an economic situation that is not likely to improve if the country continues on an isolationist path.
How to wean Iran away from the option to remain isolated, while constructing a regional security dialogue with integration at the center, is a challenge for American diplomacy in the first term of the Obama Administration.
As important as the national economic crisis is in the United States, peace in the Middle East is also an issue of domestic concern to the countries in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. For this reason, the upcoming NATO 60th Anniversary Summit should focus on the ways in which America and Europe can complement each other in the contributions made to peacemaking and peacebuilding in the region taking into account the new dynamics in relations with Syria and the implications of that evolution for dialogue with Tehran.
Sincere regards, Colette Mazzucelli