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Iraq: The Withdrawal of the US to Decide the Future of the Country

Anthony H. Cordesman & Adam Mausner | CSIS | August 2009

In contrast to the events in Afghanistan, German media pays little attention to Iraq. The envisioned withdrawal of US troops by the end of 2011 will become a historical turning point with consequences for the entire region, Already, Iran is steadily expanding its sphere of influence and Turkey fears that the northern part of Iraq will turn into an asylum for Kurdish insurgents. A well managed withdrawal of US troops and the formation of effective Iraqi security forces will be decisive for the country's future. The Iraqi government needs to be able to guarantee security and stability without the support of US soldiers. Otherwise they will run the risk of loosing control and subsequently the whole region could descend into a spiral of violence.

There is no alternative to the withdrawal of US troops. For many Iraqi's the US soldiers are opponents, whom they would like to see leaving today rather than tomorrow. Also, the prospect of continuing to meet its obligation to the Iraqi government in the current economic climate for years to come is not particularly attractive for Washington. Although the Iraqi security forces have recently been able to record successes without the support of the American troops it will be even more difficult for them to keep the religiously and ethnically divided country under control. These divisions become increasingly apparent within the security system where there are constantly conflicts between the Sunnites and Shiites (not to mention the Kurds) as well as within both religious groups. Among the Shiites the Mahdi Army of al-Sadr and the Bard brigades have irreconcilable differences. Among the Sunnites the "sons of Iraq" oppose other groups, especially on a local level. The Iraqi army refuses to integrate more than 20% of this militia in order to maintain the balance within the military. The omnipresent corruption adds to the unrest between the groups and the establishment of police units which is further complicating the matter. Furthermore, the training of security forces is still very mush improvised. There is a lack of trainers and top management in the Ministry of Interior and of necessary equipment and training facilities. The air force and navy do not dispose of sufficient personnel for effective combat systems. Even half a decade after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein there is no clear concept for the future structure of Iraqi security forces that also considers the role of the US in the training of an effective Iraqi armed military.

By 2011 the following dilemma will arise: on the one hand a timely withdrawal of the US troops would be dangerous as long as the Iraqi security forces cannot cope with the situation. On the other hand, if the US troops would remain too long, the Iraqi government would be under high pressure domestically. A realistic assessment of the Iraqi capacities and an exact preparation of the withdrawal modalities are both key to success. The withdrawal will have to be implemented in different phases and will require flexibility from both sides. A possible solution could be that US military advisers remain after the withdrawal and US guarantees for air support.

This summary was prepared by the Atlantic Community editorial team from "Withdrawal from Iraq: Assessing the Readiness of Iraqi Security Forces" published here by the Center for Strategic & International Studies.