Pakistan's Future Depends on India, China and the US
Stephen P. Cohen | Asian Journal of Public Affairs | Summer 2008
While
Pakistan is often called a failed state it is more accurately labeled as a flailing
state. The PPP-PML coalition cannot solve every problem alone but needs help
from India, China and the US. These nations, which had once contributed to the
distortion of Pakistani politics, may now play a positive role in assisting
Pakistanis develop a democratic order to cope with several critical challenges.
Last
month's election and Musharraf's resignation means Pakistan is turning over a new leaf. Fears that the election would turn into an Islamist takeover or civil
war were eliminated. However, the critical phase has only now arrived. The PPP-PML coalition cannot solve
every problem alone but needs help from outside nations. These nations, which
had once contributed to the distortion of Pakistani politics, may now play a
positive role in assisting Pakistanis develop a democratic order to cope with
several critical challenges.
- India, Pakistan's
largest neighbor, could surely play the largest role in helping shape
Pakistan's democratic future. Tensions between the two are still high. The
conflict over Kashmir and Pakistan's support for Islamic extremists are just
two issues that will not be resolved in the near future. However, Pakistan's
attitude toward India has changed markedly and it now makes sense to open economic ties, encourage non-official dialogue and
academic exchange to help the process of mutual cooperation and help dispel old
rivalries. India, by showing their support as natural partners, also needs to
convince Pakistan that its intentions in Afghanistan are not part of an
encirclement strategy.
- China is regarded in Pakistan as its oldest, most trusted friend, but it is concerned
about Pakistan's growing Islamic extremism. Even through a democratic Pakistan
is not a goal for China, it is even willing to work with other states, like the
US, to help stabilize and develop a competent civilian government that enables a transit route from Western
China to the Arabian Sea and the Middle East.
- The United States has long supported military regimes in Pakistan until Benazir Bhutto promised a more effective anti-terror strategy than Musharraf could deliver. Washington had not make it clear that it supported all democratic forces in Pakistan, yet the American ambassador has now set an example in doing so in the form of meetings with a wide range of newly elected officials and newly freed judges. America should also make its military assistance conditional, as it has been paying too much for too little cooperation. Yet, it should work with like-minded states, notably Japan and the EU countries, to ensure the increase and effectiveness of developmental and educational programs.
Pakistan's government agencies had been systematically starved over the years, which justified army rule as being the only organized way for the region to function. New investment and aid strategies, not only from the US, but also from states in the EU and wealthy Asian powers, will help to rebuild Pakistan's enfeebled bureaucracy.
Its key function regarding terrorism, its nuclear capabilities, and its potential as a moderate Muslim state constitute Pakistan's special political role. Even though saving Pakistan will be tough, politicians, journalists, and academics are finally realizing that this is the last chance for a secular and moderate state.
This summary was prepared by the Atlantic Community editorial team from "Pakistan's Second Last Chance" published here in the Asian Journal of Public Affairs edition Summer 2008.
Related materials from the Atlantic Community:
- Interview with Hussain Haqqani: Pakistan's New Commitment to the War on Terror
- From the Editorial Team: Obama Stresses Security Policy Differences with McCain
- Marek Swierczynski: NATO is Trapped in Afghanistan
Sun, Sep 28th 2008, 09:29
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India has a sizeable Muslim population that exceeds that of Pakistan - but it is also an alienated Muslim population, thanks to its political elites and their 'private armies' - that unlike those of Pakistan, do not make it to the newspapers. Their silence or not making it to the newspapers does not do away with their existences as well as India's status as a failed state - when it seeks to compete with other democracies, most visible as its nationalist rhetoric and its various practices!
India's vulnerabilities vis-a-vis Pakistan puts Pakistan in a distinct advantage, though it does not have everything to do with an alienated Muslim population. Pakistan's advantages vis-a-vis India has more to do with the ineptitude of the Indian political class and its populace that is increasingly being socialized in a virulent strain of morbidity - by their very choices and actions. India has as much to do with Pakistan, and maybe more, to be able to exist and grow than Pakistan has to do with India.
But then, could they both get out of their mutually destructive roles via-a-vis one another? The People's Republic of China is quite well placed, without having to worry about India's assumed rivalry with it, when India's status has successfully been limited to a rivalry with Pakistan. Many mistakes over the comprehension about the Indian reality can often lead to economic woes elsewhere and this is not a flight of fancy.
Pakistan would need to have a framework that ensures a rule of the law, in the letter and spirit. It would be better to have a military Pakistan that is like Singapore than have a democratic India that is but just a polished version of the Taliban-ruled areas of Afghanistan, etc., strategically speaking or even an Iranian version of religious nationalism as its national expression, even if not officially articulated. China, unarguably has enough muscle and clout to influence outcomes both in India and Pakistan. The United States is another power that can play a constructive role. So can Russia as well as the European Union. They all are states with enough clout in the region. But the only problem that stares in the faces of such notions of 'constructive role' in the region is: would you be arming a future Iran under the Ayatollah Khomeini - no matter whether the said Ayatollah would be of a Hindu or a Christian or a Muslim or even a Maoist dispensation - no matter how slick in appearance and deception, as 'Tafriqs' go?! That is the central problem in the South Asian region. The problem is of an anti-modern qua anti-west population that is as virulent in India as it is in Pakistan, though barely visible in China!