Russian Foreign Policy: Smitten by China?
Andrei Tsygankov l IFRI l February 2010
Russia is increasingly smitten by China.Since the days of Primakov as Foreign Minister, China has largely replaced the West as the object of admiration in Russian foreign policy. This new orientation in Russian foreign policy is not only augmenting repercussions on the country’s already uneasy relations with the West but could potentially destabilize international relations. The West should rethink its relations with Moscow.
Since the end of the Cold War, foreign policy discourse in Russia has moved away from Western ideology toward the pragmatic admirers of China – the Sinophiles. The latter see their countries’ future in a type of Russian “Sonderweg,” which does not rely on Western models but rather is inspired by Chinese successes. Three developments have contributed to the increasing predominance of Sinophiles in Russian foreign policy. For one, there is the impressive economic rise of Russia’s southern neighbour. Whereas Westerners fear Russia being degraded to the status of a junior partner in the relationship, Sinophiles see enormous potential for cooperation with Russia in the economic and security spheres. They are supported in this by strong interest groups originating in the military-industrial complex and the energy sector, as well as increasingly in government circles. China is even beginning to exert influence over such Russian domestic matters as the closing of the Cherkizovski market in Moscow in the summer of 2009. Another driving force behind the re-orientation toward China has been unilateral U.S. foreign policy, as seen in the expansion of NATO and the Iraq War. Sinophiles are counting on China to restore the balance needed for a multi-polar world order. The biggest factor in this policy shift is the continued weakness that the Russian state has contributed to the rise of the Sinophiles. Demographic decline, economic problems, and an ideological vacuum have reinforced them in their belief that Russia has more to gain from cooperating with China than with the West.
In international relations, Russia is turning into a tipping-point state, which will determine the balance between the major powers of the United States, the European Union, and China. On topics from climate mitigation to Iranian nuclear armament, Moscow’s increasing closeness to Beijing may easily turn into a disruptive force in international relations. The West should therefore strive to integrate Russia more strongly into European affairs in order to lessen the influence of the Sinophiles in the Kremlin. At the same time, the West should be careful not to forfeit its strong relations with China. Only thus will a truly multilateral dialogue become possible in Eurasia.
This summary was prepared by the Atlantic Community Editorial Team from "What is China to Us? Westernizers and Sinophiles in Russian Foreign Policy" published here by the IFRI.
