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Thu, Jul 29th 2010, 20:51

Anja A. Vojvodic, New York University Global Affairs, Bronze Contributor (20)

To be quite honest it seems to me that Turkey is turning more East than anything else and looking AWAY somehwat in anger from the West. Its frustration with continued rejection from the European Union, its recent conflict with Israel, and other problems are forcing Turkey to return where it is most comfortable; where there is no strain and where there are cultural ties.

This is somewhat understandable. Turkey is also trying to assert itself somewhat aggressively as a a global player; does it have the internal stability and cohesion to be an actual global player remains to be seen. The West is trying to juggle Turkey, one of its Middle Eastern traditional allies, but it must remember that Turkey will eventually lose its patience especially with the EU.

Fri, Jul 30th 2010, 11:58

Lauren Tucker, Atlantic Community, Gold Contributor (78)

In a recent comment on Erik Brattberg's article entitled "Obama's Grand Strategy and Europe," AC member Paul Robert Lookman mentions the merits of Turkey's "Zero-Problems Foreign Policy" and suggests that it could be a viable concept for Europe. Do you have any thoughts on this, Anja?

Erik's article can be found on atlantic-community.org here:

http://www.atlantic-community.org/index/articles/view/Obama%27s_Gra...

And Turkey's policy is outlined by Davutoglu in this Foreign Policy article:

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/05/20/turkeys_zero_probl...

Sat, Jul 31st 2010, 01:08

Anja A. Vojvodic, New York University Global Affairs, Bronze Contributor (20)

Hi Lauren:

Thanks for your comments and sending me those links. They were quite informative and enlightening.

I do think in principle having a "zero-problems" mentality that Davutoglu mentions in foreign policy piece towards one's neighbors is the healthy approach to neighbors in general. Simplicity dictates this conclusion.

But I ask myself is it possible, knowing the many disputes that exist among neighbors, mainly because of close borders, disputed resources and ethnic differences around the world. Davutoglu mentions himself Armenia, Turkey's most problematic neighbor , almost as if to complicate his point. In any dispute one side has to give in order for compromise to be met. So it is more complicate than "zero problems"; zero problems is a very lofty goal - - one that Turkey will have a hard time reaching, given its various predicaments and stances.

The rhetoric here is very aspirational; Davutoglu has laid out a very cogent, ambitious plan for Turkey recognizing along the way that the world has changed and foreign policy is somewhat less about brute force but for countries like Turkey it is about strategically navigating one's ship in a sea of many competitors and potential dangers.

In terms of Europe, I think Europe has pretty good relations with its neighbors, of course everything can improve, but I don't think that Turkey and Europe have to follow the same plan, maybe in principle but not necessarily the details.

What do you think?

Thanks!

Mon, Aug 2nd 2010, 14:45

Lauren Tucker, Atlantic Community, Gold Contributor (78)

You have provided a superb visualization of the current multipolar, 'messy' state of today's geopolitical realities, Anja: "...the world has changed and foreign policy is somewhat less about brute force but for countries like Turkey it is about strategically navigating one's ship in a sea of many competitors and potential dangers."

It all comes down to who has the power to set those maritime rules, if I may continue the metaphor. Europe would very much like to be the force directing Ankara's compass, but the impact of EU accession criteria has its limits, especially when paired with political indecisiveness and a largely undefined timeline. All of this talk of "losing" Turkey, or Turkey turning East, is a consequence of the larger reality that power is dispersing and creating more complex constellations between states. I agree that Turkey and the EU do not need (and are likely unable) to follow the same plan. But there should be a stronger attempt to keep the dialogue open, to coordinate policies when possible, and to create a framework (even if only in the least common denominator sense) for deeper cooperation.

Wed, Aug 4th 2010, 15:07

Daren Adam Cheatham, New York University, Bronze Contributor (15)

As I was reading this an image kept popping into my head.

On the one side, there is the west pulling on Turkey and on the other side, the East is pulling just as hard, and maybe even harder. Very similar to a tug of war. Turkey has been very malleable to both of these forces and has shown that it can, at least so far, spread it's interests between these two forces. However, at one point it will reach is limit and that will likely come with either EU accession or rejection. Turkey does still have a far way to go to conform to the requirements of joining the EU but at the same time the EU must change its popular opinion about Turkish accession, since to me the EU stands much more to loose from Turkish EU rejection than from accession.

It doesn't seem to me that Turkey has given up aspirations for EU accession; however, Turkey is being smart. As the old saying goes "Don't put all of your eggs in one basket," this is exactly what Turkey is doing and why shouldn't it? Especially with the recent anti-Islam sentiment growing within the EU. It would be foolish of us to assume that Turkey is just going to wait patiently for the opinion of the EU population to turn towards Turkish accession when many of it's national interests are aligned with many of its regional neighbors. Turkey does want to become a greater regional power and must keep progressing to do so, with or without EU accession.

Wed, Aug 4th 2010, 22:51

Rachel LaForgia, NYU, Bronze Contributor (22)

I agree with your second point Daren but to me it seems that Turkey has used the tug of war to redefine its role in the region and to as you've suggested, for in its own best interests. It will be interesting to see how the rise of Turkey (as it has been reference elsewhere) impacts the EU and the Middle East and how Turkey leverages its influence to pursue its strategic objectives.