Israeli-Iranian War Becomes Very Possible
Erich Follath, Der Spiegel | June 23, 2009
The current demeanor of both, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could lead to war in 2010. ++ Although the leaders aim at different goals, "they are united in their apocalyptic religious visions." ++ The probable failure of US-Iranian nuclear negotiations must result in more sanctions against Iran. ++ The international community should prepare for this to speed up Iranian uranium enrichment, which might trigger a military reaction from Netanyahu.
Tue, Jun 23rd 2009, 17:11
Olaf von Roeder
As to the content of Erich's statements:
It is correct, and a matter of common knowledge, that Israeli officials view a nuclear armed Iran as an existential threat. They also have announced on several occasions, that they would not rule out a strike against Iran's nuclear infrastructure.
When Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told the Atlantic magazine some months ago that "You don't want a messianic apocalyptic cult controlling atomic bombs", new concerns were raised, and even caused CENTCOM commander General Petraeus to articulate those concerns and their possible consequences in a testimony to the U.S. Congress.
However, even the Bush Administration actively discouraged Israeli plans to conduct such a strike in 2008 by denying Israel's requests for some special equipment needed for such an operation. And the new Administration knows as well that any such move by the Israeli military would draw the United States into a conflict, possibly involving weapons of mass destruction. Furthermore, it would do so without giving the US forces the required time for detailed operational campaign planning and preparation, and thus endangering the success of those operations.
An Israeli strike - with or without U.S. involvement - could additionally trigger a vast number of unconventional or asymmetric retaliations and Iran's missile tests in July 2008 can be interpreted as a demonstration of retaliatory capabilities directly addressing the Israel and U.S. governments.
Netanyahu, beyond his dashing manners, is well aware of these risks, and also is able to think rationally. Aside from that, Israel knows that continuously needed, future support from the Obama Administration might anyway be more difficult to obtain than in the past, and going it alone would not be a viable option for the country.
To sum it up, while I surely do have concerns about these recent trends, I am quite positive that it will not be Israel, that makes the first move in an aggressive, military confrontation on a larger scale.