No doubt,
Obama's speech at the Victory Column in Berlin will have its impact. The images
of the tens of
thousands of mostly young people cheering him are surely
impressive. There is a new political quality around this presidential candidate
that has to be reckoned with. But will his speech have the impact on global
politics that he wants to make us believe it will? Or even on the American
elections which his speech was also carefully crafted for?
I am doubting
both.
On the global
scale, his speech contained everything we can all agree upon: the necessity to
fight poverty, to fight the proliferation of nuclear weapons, to build bridges
between nations and religions, to renew the transatlantic bond, to be proud of
what we have achieved as allies in the past, etc., etc., etc. The speech
contained more promise than substance; it was more "Disney" (David Brooks, New
York Times) than "Realpolitik".
This was not the
radical change he promised during his primary campaign. Instead, it was "more
of the same" and most of it could have been said by President Busch as well.
But nobody would have listened. No doubt, it came in a nice package and very
eloquently presented. So, why all the hype?
One thing really
strikes me, having seen him during his primary campaign in the U.S. and now in
front of the huge crowd in Berlin. It is Obama's mesmerizing effect, especially
on young people. It is his ability to make people believe in what he says and
in his person. This is not about politics but rather about a quasi-religious
surrogate which goes down so well with a younger generation. They seem to long
for and to embrace his messages in a way that was rarely seen before.
That is the new
quality of Obama and that makes him unique as a presidential candidate as well
as a new type of politician. He seems to be more trustworthy and more credible
than any other politician around the globe. And that is why the content of his
political message is not what really counts.
But will that be
enough to get him elected as the 44th president of the United
States? As far as Europe and its jubilating crowds are concerned, no doubt, he
would be voted for by an overwhelming majority. But back here, in the United
States, the picture is quite different. Astonishingly enough, even after his
successful foreign policy tour to Afghanistan, the Middle East and Europe, he
is only a couple of points ahead of John McCain in the national polls. And in
some swing states McCain is narrowing the gap. Even the glamorous pictures of
Obama shaking the hands of presidents and kings alike, might not go down so
well with John Doe as some of the Obama campaigners might imagine. It might even give
fodder to those critics, including Hillary Clinton, who blame Obama for being
too elitist and disconnected from ordinary citizens, whereas McCain campaigns
in shopping malls and townhall meetings, getting together with his real-world
constituents. He might have found the right tone in this election campaign.
One thing is for certain though: the election ain't over yet! It's all
still up in the air. And Obama, who has proven himself not only a skillful
rhetorician but also a very shrewd and coolly calculating politician, may have
won additional sympathy in Europe and proven his foreign policy skills. But
elections are won back home and it very well might be that McCain - who is
still looking like the underdog compared with Obama - may have the last laugh.
There have been historic precedents: the most famous one was 1948 when Dewey
had a clear lead, but Truman won the presidency.
Rüdiger Lentz is the president of Atlantic Initiative U.S. and the Washington bureau chief and senior diplomatic correspondent for Deutsche Welle Radio and Television.
Related materials from the Atlantic Community:
- Rüdiger Lentz: Europe's Hope for Obama Presidency Likely to be Dashed
- Obama in Europe: Continuity We Can Believe In
- Hot issue: How long is Bush's shadow
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