Ever since negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program stalled in January, Tehran has continued its determined effort in pursuing a nuclear armament agenda. As Western governments struggle with the debt crisis, Iran has tripled its efforts in enriching uranium to more than 20% U-235. Uranium dedicated to civil purposes requires a degree of only 3.5% enriched U-235. This is not the first clear indication of the military purposes of Iran´s nuclear program. A medium-range missile test in July, combined with other military upgrades, aggressive behavior and support for terrorists groups around the globe have all heightened Western suspicions of the Islamic Republic’s nuclear ambitions.
Nuclear negotiations and conferences built on false premises over the years have turned out to be bootless. The US Ambassador to Germany, Philipp Murphy, pointed out at an Atlantic Community event that the US and European governments would not have chosen the current sanction track on Iran if progress in the field had been proven at the negotiating table. Moreover, Western politicians' naivety has made it possible for sophisticated advocates of the Islamic Republic to play diverging Western diplomacy perceptions against one another. Therefore, Iran has been able to make technical progress in the absence of the West’s ability to recognize the antagonism in its interests.
Beyond failed attempts
In the debate "Students Advice Policy Makers", we tried to tackle the complex antagonism and outline the premises of the Islamic Republic of Iran in order to explain the recurring deadlocks and fallacies in the nuclear dossier. We believe that our analysis is on the right track. The recent unforeseeable events verify our interpretation of Iran´s aggressive behavior (for example, support for Bashar al-Assad’s brutal repression of the Syrian revolution) and the role of online activism. Furthermore, during the Arab Spring, many new opportunities towards peaceful regime change in Iran presented themselves.
It is time to look beyond the negotiating table built on compliance, where Western diplomacy was forced into playing cat and mouse with the Iranian regime. Compliance with Middle Eastern dictators is not only ineffective, but also illegitimate. After the fall of Ben Ali, Mubarak and Gadhafi, it seems odd to argue for compliance with the most vital supporter of terrorism and violator of human rights – Iran – while the people fighting for freedom on the streets are getting beaten up and killed. The nuclear issue will be solved only if Iran’s military intentions vanish, given that the current regime will not change voluntarily. As we see, people in the West share with the people of Egypt, Tunisia, Syria and Iran the will to live in freedom. Our argument in favor of freedom activism online has become even more vital in light of the important role played by online dissidence in toppling authoritarian Arab regimes.
The Syrian track
Lately, Tehran’s strategic interests are seriously spoilt due to Syria, its most reliable partner, becoming the target of anti-regime street protests. Assad is the closest link the Iranian regime has to immediate terrorist activity against their self-proclaimed arch enemy, Israel. Saba Farzan is absolutely correct that it would be Tehran’s nightmare to lose its hub for weapons supplies to Hezbollah and Palestinian terror cells. Whatever comes after Assad, Tehran will in no way be able to maintain its military capabilities and support for their terrorist satellites in the short term. Therefore, it is in the best interests of the West to counter Iran’s aggressive ambitions in the region on the battlefield of Assad’s slaughterhouse.
The road to Tehran runs through Damascus. Keep in mind the symbolic effect when the Iranians see how the Syrians get rid of their regime. It would be unquestionable for Iranians that they could topple their own regime after seeing the people of Tunisia, Libya, Egypt and even Syria succeed. Hence, Western governments have to follow the approach Johnny West recently outlined on atlantic-community.org. Furthermore, we welcome the CGA at NYU Ethnic Conflicts Learning Community´s approach to topple the regime by using non-violent tactics.
Engage online activism
The CGA article mentioned that “more than 60% of the Iranian population is under the age of 30” and “more than 65% of Iranians in university today are women”. This is the very starting point of our approach to topple the regime or force reform using the internet. We need fewer visa restrictions and more scholarships and exchange programs for Iranian students. Furthermore, we have to evaluate opportunities to grant the Iranian youth access to the internet. We must promote networks like "Tor" which enables Iranian and Syrian activists to hide their identity from the regime and circumvent the pervasive censorship infrastructure. In addition, we have to consider opportunities for transnational hacker groups, for instance, to organize cyber-attacks against Iranian censorship institutions.
Again, we highlight our belief that Iran’s nuclear buildup can be prevented peacefully, if Western politicians get back on track soon. Before the Arab Spring, Western politicians struggled to discuss sanctions, negotiation terms or potential military strikes to end Iran’s nuclear program. Finally, the Arab Spring has revealed a path paved with new opportunities to solve the nuclear issue. We believe that this track ought to be pursued, though the aforementioned aspects, especially sanctions and military intervention, should also be kept on the table.
- 8
September 2, 2011
Mladen
Now, Iran is alarmed by growing influence and military might of Saudi Arabia, so regardless of regime change, they need additional security guarantees. One option is to reach nuclear threshold and sit on it. Other is to develop relations with West to level Turkey had and that will take years even if Iran gets democratic tomorrow.
Rulers in Iran know full well that if you show fear, wolves will eat you, like they ate Saddam Hussein or Moamer Gaddafi. Therefore, if Saudi Arabia manages to install Sunni theocracy in Syria, their only option is to persist even harder with nuclear program. And, if regime in Syria is toppled by force, chance that liberals will take over is nil. If you indeed want to preserve Arab secularism and create liberalism as formidable force in Syria, goal should be to force free elections and then gain support of Sunni urban, educated middle class.
As for Iranian nuclear program, best way to stop it would require nuclear free Middle East (without exceptions) combined with unrestricted access to prepared nuclear fuel and removal of some sanctions - particularly access to capable anti-aircraft defence.