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August 14, 2009 |  26 comments |  Print | E-Mail Your Opinion  

Carrots for Pakistan, Sticks for the Gulf States

Shazad Ali: The US led ‘War on Terror’ should not only focus on Pakistan and Afghanistan but also on the Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia. Even though the Taliban receive more funding from these states than from both Pakistan and Afghanistan, the US only threatens Saudi Arabia with more privileges. To fight terrorism effectively the US must cut off the Taliban funding lifeline from the Gulf.

While the United States has been fighting the 'war on terror' with a focus on Pakistan and Afghanistan, the Gulf region has been recently identified as the source of funding for Taliban militants. The US policy of demonizing Pakistan and Afghanistan as the homes of terrorism ignores the role that the Gulf States play in funding them.

Ignoring this factor is ironic given the focus on stemming terrorism at the source. This failure of US policy to properly administer blame needs immediate change.

Reports that the Taliban are funded through drug money raised by poppy cultivation in Afghanistan have been quoted as established fact for some time now. However, this was placed in context when the US special envoy to the region Richard Holbrooke disclosed that the Taliban were receiving more funding from the Gulf countries than from within Afghanistan.

Holbrooke, during his recent visit to the NATO headquarters in Brussels, stated that the Taliban operations in the Pashtun belt are supported by drug money, while overall activities are funded from outside Afghanistan. An unnamed NATO official agreed with Holbrooke, saying that drug money represents only a portion of the Taliban's operational funding.

Barely three days later, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, following a meeting with Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al Faisal, asserted that the US and Saudi Arabia were working together to "deny terrorists safe havens and access to funding in Pakistan and Afghanistan."

If one considers the efforts to combat terrorism since the September 11 terror attacks it appears that Washington uses a stick to punish Pakistan while offering carrots as incentives to Saudi Arabia, despite the fact that most of the terrorists involved in the 9/11 tragedy were born in the Gulf state. Al Qaeda and Taliban members usually belong to the Wahabi school of thought, which comes from Saudi Arabia.

While Pakistan, despite being the victim of terrorism itself, has been threatened by the US with "either-you-are-with-us-or-against-us" policy, its tone and gestures towards Saudi Arabia have always been mild. The US has also accused the Pakistani premier spy agency - Inter-Services Intelligence - of supporting the Taliban, perhaps forgetting that Washington supplied funding and armed the Mujahideen during the Soviet invasion to contain the spread of communism and influence in this strategically important region.

The accusations made by Washington may be true, but the fact remains that it has never adopted a harsh or threatening policy towards Saudi Arabia. If, according to the US, Pakistan had to safeguard its own national interests by supporting the Taliban, it was and is also in US interests to adopt a mild tone in its dealings with Saudi Arabia or other so-called progressive Gulf countries for that matter. The reason is simple, Saudi Arabia has the biggest oil reserves and the US, at the moment, does not wish to jeopardize its supply. The second reason is the huge investment made by Saudi Arabia in the US which might be withdrawn if the Obama administration decides to take a tough stance against the oil-rich country.

Nevertheless, if the US wants to take the bull by the horns, it must cut the lifeline of the terrorists, the funding from the Gulf. For that it needs to take concrete steps rather than half-hearted rhetoric. Terrorists are nothing without weaponry, and for weaponry they need money. It is time that Washington takes measures against the Gulf states or any country from where the funds for supporting terrorist activities are coming.

In this scenario, bombarding Pakistani villages with drones while giving preferential treatment to the Gulf states can only add fuel to the fire, increasing anti-America sentiment among the Pakistani and Afghan populations. Although there is still a sentiment of hatred towards the US in Pakistan, the people at large have denounced the Taliban and Al Qaeda for unleashing a reign of terror with suicide bombings.

Terrorism is not the predicament only for Washington, it has become a global menace. If the US really wants to eliminate terrorism, the time has come for it to start treating all the stakeholders on an equal footing rather than with dual policies.

Following Sept 11, Pakistan made a choice by withdrawing its support for the Taliban in order to deal directly with the issue of militancy within its borders. Its previous support for the Taliban was based on the need to counter external threats but the then President Pervez Musharraf renounced that in favour of support from the US. He then paid a heavy price as the move invited the wrath of religious political parties.

Now it is the turn of the US to make a choice. It will have to make serious efforts to cut funding to militants, and sacrifice a bit by dealing with all the players without discrimination.

Shazad Ali is a journalist and writes on international affairs with a focus on counter-terrorism, Asia and Europe.

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Tags: | Gulf States | US | Pakistan |
 
Comments
Florian  Kuhne

August 14, 2009

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Mr Ali,

thank you for your article and a fresh look on terrorism because you point out things which are if not denied then concealed at least.

Although one does not hear much about specific backgrounds of the "war on terror" I am not surprised about those facts you supply. Why is that? The whole "war on terror" was started with a big lie and lies are running all the way through that war. The fact, that public is not told details seems clear. And it is the same pattern again. The US (and Europe as a good fellow too) point their fingers to this and that but do we know what is really going on? Isn't there a grain of truth in the argument, that the US "needed" the war in 2001 and still profits from arms industry, export of arms to allies and from their role as security guard of the world? Maybe one can say that ending the war on terror is not the interest of the US at all.

If the terrorists and their network would be dangerous to the vitality and strength and prosperity of the West, shouldn't the US and Europe work a lot harder to suppress and destroy it? I think facts like these have the ability to show that "terrorism" is less dangerous than governments try to tell us all the time.

I just want to refer to the case of the "Sauerland-Gruppe", "terrorists" on trial in Germany who were supported by the German Verfassungsschutz (Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution) or the guys arrested in New York this May: A group, obviously made up by the FBI but displayed as dangerous as the 9/11 hijackers (who form a chapter of themselves).

In my opinion, the threat is if not made up absolutely overestimated as part of US-policy to threaten its citizens to perform a policy as they desire.
Tags: | war on terror |
 
Nikolina-Romana  Milunovic

August 14, 2009

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Thank you for your contribution!
I agree with Mr. Kuhne’s idea of a certain global tendency to blow the terrorist threat out of proportion. It is a well established fact that societies draw closer together if there is an imminent external menace. Further, controversial laws can be enacted more easily, the US Patriot Act being the most obvious example.
However, I would refrain from denouncing terrorism as simply a tool, made up by the potentates. Terrorism, as a new form of security challenge is a logical repercussion of globalization and the rising complexity of international interdependence. The increase and importance of economic ties makes traditional warfare among nation states unlikely. This results in positive effects such as more than 50 years of peace in the EU area.
On the other hand, the decreasing importance of borders also means that the idea of fighting for a single country degenerates to the vision of following extremist religious beliefs. Therefore, I do not share your assertion, Mr. Kuhne, that the terrorist threat is “made up”.

The phenomenon of concentrating anti-terror initiatives on Afghanistan and Pakistan is indeed questionable. Mr. Ali, you say the international community must take measures against the Gulf States. What sort of measures would be reasonable in your opinion? Certainly, the West cannot afford to discourage anti-terror cooperation with these countries- so I wonder, what kind of stick could be used for the Gulf States?
 
Florian  Kuhne

August 14, 2009

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Dear Ms Milunovic.

Maybe I misled you and other readers by arguing with examples for "made-up" terrorism threats. I did not mean to judge terrorism as a phenomenon made up by the US or "the West". This would go to far. What I wanted to stress is the argument of governments threatening their citizens in ways which suggest the use of terrorism for their own goals. You mention the US Patriot Act, other examples can be given. Every few weeks, German media is full of terrorist threats. With the coming elections things may getting worse.

I would not deny Terrorism as political weapon. In some cases it seems to me kind of the only way some groups have to fight for their goals (which are not always of religious nature, as we sometimes fail to see). This is meant non-judgmental. What I was talking about is terrorism in the US or Europe. The two examples were given to highlight the difficulty I see in the whole concept of the "war on terror".
Tags: | war on terror |
 
Shazad  Ali

August 15, 2009

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Many thanks for your valuable comments Mr Kuhne and Ms Milunovic.

While I would agree that West at times uses terrorism as a political tool, I would also favour the argument by Ms Milunovic that it is not a "made up" phenomenon by the West which Mr Kuhne has also clarified. I believe terrorism is a reality not a myth, although reasons for it may be different not particulalrly religious as it may apparently seems.

 
Shazad  Ali

August 15, 2009

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Note: this reply is a continuation of previous one which was mistakenly sent before complete message.

Although Western governments may use terrorism to gain political advantages or to achieve their agenda, terrorism is certainly as dangerous as it seems. People in the West could say terrorism may not be as dangerous as the governments try to portray it, but this may not be the case in the East (Asia or South Asia) which faces the menace more than the West.

Ms Milunovic thanks for your comments and observations. But I would like to clarify that I have emphasised on the US, not the international community, to take measures against the Gulf states. The point I tried to make is that since US has been trying to fight terrorism to defend its national interests then it should working out on the real problem related to terrorism. And for this it has to make some sacrifice.

On one hand US uses rough tactics against Pakistan and accuses Pakistani intelligence or the government for supporting Taliban clandestinely, one the other hand it does not seems to be serious in forcing the governments of the Gulf states (from where funding to Taliban might be coming) to take strict measures to stop flow of cash for terrorist activities. Now it is up to US administration to make a formula how to tackle this situation. If US can go to such an extreme where it uses drones to bombard Pakistani territory to eliminate terrorists, then it can at least find a diplomatic way to persuade Saudi Arabia or Gulf states to step up efforts to curb flow of funds.

Since US always emphasises on democracy, I believe a word about "democracy" in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states would be a "big stick" which would be enough to persuade the people at the helm of affairs in the kingdoms to start working on cutting the cash flow in the real sense.
 
Donald  Stadler

August 15, 2009

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"I agree with Mr. Kuhne’s idea of a certain global tendency to blow the terrorist threat out of proportion."

@Ms Milunovic

That is an interesting statement. I might agree that the Terrorist war is not WWIII, but there also seems to me a concerted effort to blot the terrorist war out of existence, or at least out of memory. I daresay that far more newspaper inches of coverage has been given to the topic of the US becoming a totalitarian state (upon the obviously sound basis of 3 highly culpable men having been captured and waterboarded). This is of course no exagguration, none at all.

Meanwhile palpable acts of war have been blotted out of memory. Deliberately so, apparently they are of no consequence. Not only 9/11, Madrid, and Bali but massive acts occuring within the past year. Does anyone remember Mumbai, or is everyone too busy demonizing Bush & Cheney?

No, I don't think it is blown out of proportion. Certainly far less blown out of proportion than G-Bay and other slips along the road, which we have heard about again and again and will no doubt continue to hear about, while truly massive acts of war against peaceful countries are alloed to slip off the front pages.

Or do you believe THIS is blown out of proportion?
 
Donald  Stadler

August 15, 2009

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Speaking of the possible consequences, I think everyone should think about this one.

WWI started because of the assasination of a single man. Albeit there were many causes and the powers of Europe were aligned in such a way that it could happen, but the assasination of Archdke Ferdinand in Sarajevo by partisans backed by the Serbian secret police (or so it was alleged with some credibility) was the tinder.

Now lets consider certain countries in the Indian subcontinent. Suppose that one of these countries mounts a successful assasination of the other's Prime Minister, and it leads to war between two nuclear powers?

Farfetched? Hardly. India has had one Prime Minister (Rajiv Ghandi) assassinated by a terrorist in the recent past; his mother was blotted out in another terrorist attack not long before that. And India has been the victim of a terrorist attack on it's National Parliament fairly recently. Put one and one together - and I think you have to conclude that it could happen again. And it could lead to war. Nuclear war. One doesn't have to plan to make war happen, random (or non-ramdom) events can cause them. An India-Pakistan war could kill hundreds of millions. It's not unlikely, and the spark would be terrorism. At very least terrorism has created the conditions by which it could happen.

No, it's not probably. I would not put the probability of this happening in the next decade above 15%. Nor less than 5%, I fear.

Think about it. Still think the threat of terrorism is overblown?
 
Clayton  Macdonald

August 15, 2009

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I think Donald Stadler mis-wrote a little when he said WW 1 started because of the assassination of a single man. He meant, of course, that the assassination was the trigger or tipping point that cascaded the subsequent 4 years (and more) of madness and he did try to clarify just that. But even calling that event "the tinder" gives it greater importance than it warrants. The point is, the institutions of Europe at that time, along with their inertia and the petty mindedness of the elite, had created an extremely unstable condition based on a fantasy of multilateralist balance of power. Archduke Ferdinand's murder was more akin to the last random atom of oxygen needed to set an existing hot smolder into an outright blaze.

Yet I agree that an act of terrorism could trigger another massive war event today since the present conditions, indeed, appear to be very unstable. Yet putting the blame for a future war on any act of terrorism would be displacement. If conditions are stable, no act of puerile violence can possibly devolve into an avalanche of even greater violence. Rather, it will remain isolated and abhorred, much like the insane Basque bombings, or the Oklahoma City bomb of a few years ago. Furthermore, if conditions are unstable, no act of terrorism is needed to trip the descent into hell; any sort of insult will do, even to the point that an insult will be fabricated to get the ball rolling.

So the blame needs to be laid with the instability that our leaders and institutions have been allowed to create, not with "the terrorists." If we should have a major war, if we should have any war at all, it is because we, ourselves, have failed to create stable conditions.

So the question then becomes, is bombing Pakistani villages to get the evil terrorists while, at the same time, cozying up to the Saudi regime optimal policy for creating greater levels of stability in the world? Are we encouraging our elite to act in the interest of long term stability, i.e., peace, or do we demand that they first preserve their elite positions at any cost and second allow us to follow along as closely as we can on their coattails?
 
Donald  Stadler

August 15, 2009

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@Clayton,

Not a bad argument, but I think you place your attention on the wrong theatre. US policy toward the Saudis and Pakistan is not going to be the tinder to cause a major war; the hot spots lie elsewhere.

Where? The foremost one is the confrontation between India and Pakistan, and secondarily between India and China over border regions they both claim. The latter issue is in negociation, so we can hope that they will be able to come to a mutually satisfactory compromise.

That leaves India-Pakistan. It appears that elements in the Pakistani Secret Services have been training and helping terrorist groups which have been attacking India for quite some time. They seem to feel free do do so because of the Pakistani nuclear deterrent. Yet how long will India lie down under this treatment. The attacks on Mumbai last year have been tied to Pakistani supporters (bearing Chinese ordinance). That was a causus belli for India, but one which India overlooked. But unless Pakistan can restrain the elements which are doing this, it will keep happening.

This is highly unstable. Many things could trigger it off, but I judge that diplomacy will not do that. The countries are talking with each other with some success. No, I judge the wild card in the equation is the terrorist tactics encouraged by elements in Pakistani intelligence. An unusually destructive attack or even a series of Mumbai-like attacks on India could bring war between two nuclear countries. China could intervene, as could the US, though these two powers are perhaps more likely to support the combatants than to declare war themselves. Assuming no outside intervention it seems likely that India would defeat Pakistan in a conventional war, making it more likely that Pakistan might resort to the nuclear option to avoid defeat. India would retaliate, I think.

My point is not that this is inevitable or even probable. But that it's reasonably likely to come to war sometime over the next 10 to 15 years. T4errorism is the likely trigger of a major war, which doesn't lead me to believe that the threat od terrorism has been overstated.

No, I conclude that many people simply have their heads in the sand, like a a flock of ostrichs......
 
Clayton  Macdonald

August 16, 2009

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Hi Donald,

I do not at all disagree that some deranged person or group could provide the excuse to go to war, whether between Pakistan and India or elsewhere. My argument is that if governmental institutions are interested in, and have built, stable social, political and economic environments, then no act of terrorism will spark a war. I would further argue that if governmental institutions have actually built stable conditions, then the likelihood of terrorism itself declines dramatically.

If we continue with the example of potential war between Pakistan and India, then we have to ask how the other countries of the world are helping – or hindering – the creation of stability on the sub-continent. Let's consider the suggestion of a lunatic fringe that has embedded itself in Pakistan's spy departments and which is aiding terrorist attacks on India. Now, suppose the U.S. or the E.U. or, for that matter, China or Russia or Argentina bomb some Pakistani villages in the name of protecting their national security or furthering their own strategic objectives or just in order to kill the bad guys. What effect will that have on the lunatic fringe? Make them more, or less, inclined to mount terrorist attacks against whatever perceived enemy they can reach? If you are in an environment where people are shooting all around you, are you more, or less, inclined to shoot?

Terrorism needs to be taken seriously. But if we wish to create a world where war is something to be read about in historical novels, good ol' boy cronyism and class discrimination are unknown in government, and terrorism is known only in isolated cases of complete derangement, then we need to take creating government that can create stability much more seriously. And that certainly does not include preserving the status quo.
 
Donald  Stadler

August 16, 2009

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@Clayton,

What occurred in Mumbai was precisely the same thing as what started WWI -State-sponsored terrorism. Albeit slightly unofficial state-sponsored terrorism - in both both cases.

In 1914 it was not random, the assassination was the work of a group known as the Black Hand, which Serbian army officers ran. I doubt the assasination was approved by political figures, indeed the Blcak Hand seems to have been formed in 1912 as the result of a schism within the Serbian Radical Party. But the assassination was ordered by the Chief of Serbian Military Intelligence (according to Wikipedia). That is official terrorism. Killing the head of state or the heit apparent was designed to destabilize the Austro-Hungarian Empire.

For a parallel you might consider what the consequences would have been had it ever been established that Lee Harvey Oswald had been a member of a group sponsored and financed by the KGB.

I'm afraid that you're failing the chronology test. The attack upon the Indian parliament occurred in December 2001, I believe, almost 8 years before US forces crossed into Pakistan in hot pursuit of Taliban fighters who have regarded the border as their safe refuge. So this is not a couse and effect thing, unless you are arguing that Pakistani state-sponsored terrorism is the cause of the anti-Taliban incursion. I'm not convinced of that but am willing to entertain your arguments.

No, that is not an excuse for the Mumbai attacks. Like the other attacks on India, the Mumbai terrorists were well trained, well organised, and well-equipped. And they shot down Indians and foreigners like animals. It did not matter whether they were rich or poor, Hindu or Muslim, backpackers or nabobs. They did specifically target Jews and two luxury hotels.

Now lets suppose a successful attack on Indian government, either the national pariament or a state government. Would that not destabilize India? It probably would. Might India respond with an ultimatum? Very likely. Could Pakistan refuse all knowledge of the conspiracy despite it being suspiciously well-armed and well-trained? Yes. And might India not capture one or more members of the group alive, and get confessions that Pakistan security was the organizer? They did so in 2001 and in Mumbai. Just because India did not choose to go to war after either incient does not mean that these were not causus bellii with potentilly grave consequences. Nations have gone to war for less.

Can we continue to rely on Indian self-restraint in the face of extreme provication? I fear not. Consider the response of a BJP-led government to another attack on the India Pariament. It doesn't bear thinking about, does it?
 
Colette Grace Mazzucelli

August 16, 2009

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Clayton, Donald, greetings from New York on a lovely Sunday afternoon.

Donald, thank you for the link you sent a few days back. I am in the midst of grading to finish the NYU summer course and will respond after this week.

I am following with great interest your exchanges regarding this topic. As I read more, my initial question pertains to the mechanism of the balance of power (BOP), which, as you know, is operative in this part of the world.

I agree with those analysts, including the realist Hans Morgenthau, who argue that the balance of power is inherently unstable and unworkable. World War I is an example that speaks to this assertion, which is cited in your exchanges.

If we argue from this starting point, what are the institutions to counter the balance of power? Can we make the argument from Waltz's second image, the state, that the nature of a polity determines whether or not it will participate in a balance of power system?

Was Bismarck's Germany more inclined in the late 19th century to operate within a BOP system than the United States in the Nixon/Kissinger era?

In South Asia, where the pull of globalization will continue to increase in years to come, will the balance of power continue to operate in the same way? If so, it is likely that the relationship between India and Pakistan, both armed with nuclear weapons and still in conflict in Kashmir, will continue to define the system.

The fundamental asymmetry in institutional terms is that India has strong domestic institutions in comparison to fragile ones in the Pakistani polity, which is rivalled by the security apparatus inside the state. Even if that asymmetry were to be addressed by strengthening the Pakistani government's ability to control the security service and the military, what international institutions would states accept to replace the balance of power system in this part of the world?

How would this new system cope with non-state terrorist actors without a fundamental agreement on the nature of the threat and the political will to redefine sovereignty in terms of responsibility as well as power? If no sovereign power except the state persists in the system, how is the institutional response to be framed to rise to the nature of the threats states face individually and collectively?

All the best, Colette
 
Donald  Stadler

August 16, 2009

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"I agree with those analysts, including the realist Hans Morgenthau, who argue that the balance of power is inherently unstable and unworkable."

I think it depends upon the circumstances. If Morgenthau (and you) are arguing that BOP cannot work I would have to disagree. If you are arguing that economic growth, technology, and changing politics can and will undermine any BOP over time, that seems sensible. But those thing will ultimately undermine any extablished order, whether it is one dominant power or anything else.

BOP can work for a long time. Bismark showed that, the order created by the Congress of Vienna worked for almost a century more or less. Of course the most successful example has been the post WWII order, if you wish to call that balance of power. With no major European war between 1945 and the present I think it's obvious that has been a major success.

"Was Bismarck's Germany more inclined in the late 19th century to operate within a BOP system than the United States in the Nixon/Kissinger era?"

I don't know whether that was BOP or not. Germany had alliances with Imperial Russia, Austro-Hungary, and Italy, and was able to maintain those alliances whilst he remained in power. But Bismark was a recognized diplomatic genius - once he passed from the scene the balance (and some of the alliances) crumbled. As for Nixon-Kissinger? In some respects their diplomacy was BOP. The rapproachment with China was definately BOP. Nixon did not create the Vietnam War. It's difficult to lay it on any one President, probably Kennedy more than anyone. Or LBJ.

"In South Asia, where the pull of globalization will continue to increase in years to come, will the balance of power continue to operate in the same way? If so, it is likely that the relationship between India and Pakistan, both armed with nuclear weapons and still in conflict in Kashmir, will continue to define the system."

India-Pakistan and Kashmir are certainly the most visible manifestations of the current balance of terror, but not the only ones. China and India have their tensions; Pakistan is in some respects a Chinese cats-paw being supported in order to keep India off-balance and occupied elsewhere. If India were finally to have enough with Pakistani-sponsored terrorism and were to go to war, the question is whether China would intervene apart from selling or giving arms to the Pakistanis. It would be difficult for the Chinese to do much direct damage to India over their direct border the Himalayas. The converse also applies of course.

China has shown signs of imperialism elsewhere, notably over oil rights in the South China Sea.

"The fundamental asymmetry in institutional terms is that India has strong domestic institutions in comparison to fragile ones in the Pakistani polity,"

True, and the primary reason India hasn't gone to war as yet are those institutions. But - if BJP were in power in India and there were a major act of Muslim terrorism in India I shouldn;t want to answer for the consequences. This whether Pakistan is actually implicated in this specific incident or not, because I am very sure that most Indians (or at least must Sihks and Hindus assume that Pakistan is directly or indirectly behind any act of Muslim terrorism in India - with considerable reason to, I think.

Seems to me the one reaon for hope is that India does have strong institutions; chinese musings that India could be broken into 30 parts to the contrary. Pakistan strikes me as quite similar to the Serbia or 1913, but India is not similar to the Austro-Hungarian Empire of 1913, so perhaps the centre can hold despite everything.
 
Clayton  Macdonald

August 17, 2009

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My response, here, written in response to Collette's and before I saw Donald's most recent contribution, seems to highlight the different lenses with which Donald and I view the world.

Getting to the specifics of enhancing regional (and world) stability raises several dimensions for consideration: Existing institutions vs. restructured or new institutions; Innovative institutions vs. ones that stubbornly follow standard operating procedure (SOP); The effects of direct interventions vs. indirect, and; Emphasis on policy outcomes in the short term, perhaps what can be accomplished in five or so years, vs. long term outcomes, perhaps with a view to outcomes that are ten or more years out.

If we confine our considerations to existing institutions, to ones confined by their SOPs, to direct interventions and to short term outcomes, then I am very pessimistic both in general and in the specific instance of the Pakistan-India scenario.

Let me at this point say again that I am no expert – woefully ignorant would be a better description – about the specifics of the dissonance between Pakistan and India. This is why I've kept my comments at the level of hypothesis rather than policy prescription. But I do have the distinct impression that the common elements of, a) fear of being oppressed by the Other and, b) self-righteous desire to oppress the Other – i.e., to win the alpha position and to force the Other into the subservient position – are the functional motivations at play. This seems to apply both between Pakistan and India and within each of those countries. I am sure that both the citizens and the states advance well developed legal, moral and historical rationales for why their positions represent Truth.

So, in at least a token of trying to remain relevant to Mr. Ali's initial commentary, we can argue that the US policy of occasionally bombing a Pakistani village to kill alleged terrorists is a direct intervention using existing institutions following SOP with an emphasis on short term outcomes. The US policy of remaining cozy with Saudi Arabia is, with regard to Pakistan, indirect intervention using existing institutions following SOP, but perhaps with little consideration of impact on outcome, either short or long term. I have hypothesized that both these US policies could have destabilizing effects in Pakistan because they both are likely to inflame any nascent or existing convictions, among citizens and within the state, that Pakistan is threatened by the Other.

There is, nevertheless, potential for existing national and supranational institutions to enhance stability if they are able to be innovative, if they can change SOP when SOP is a barrier to progress, if they are able to consider indirect effects, and if they pursue outcomes for the long term. Hmmm...need I explain why I'm pessimistic?

I am trying to get to specific policy prescriptions. Please be patient.

Earlier, Donald pointed out that if Kennedy's assassination in '63 had been identified as an attack by the USSR, the result could have been war. Yet identifying the assassination as an attack (vs. a bizarre rogue action of deranged outsiders), and the choice to respond by going to war, are both signs of fundamental social and political instability. Where, then, does instability come from?

There are at least three answers: a) fighting original sin – the belief that humans, no matter what the environmental conditions, always produce significant numbers of immoral bad guys who need to be rooted out and punished by the righteous, b) hierarchy – humans, especially males, always fight, using any and all means, to get the alpha position, and c) inequity – humans, as very social primates, have highly evolved instincts and cultures that do not accept gross inequity in the distribution of resources within the tribe.

Therefore, institutional action to promote stability should be action that counteracts the destabilizing tendencies listed above. In other words, very often the most effective policies will be those that are indirect and have a long term perspective.

This response is already overly long. Again, I am too uninformed about actual conditions on the ground in Pakistan and India to make policy proposals for specific individual institutions for short term, direct action. However, I would at least encourage the extended development of micro-loan banks (especially if loan payback were based on success, rather than time), support of independent judiciaries and media, and provision of health services with special emphasis on women and children. Use of local, non-dogmatic institutions would likely be more effective in the short term than top down interventions by faceless and remote international institutions.
 
Colette Grace Mazzucelli

August 17, 2009

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Greetings Clayton,

Thank you for this explanation. I do agree with Mr. Ali's argument. There is a double standard. The cost to change policy is perceived by many vested interests in the countries in question to outweigh the consequences, which are clearly detrimental in terms of the US presence in the region. This is critical as US relations with the Gulf States continue to evolve in part as a counterweight to Iran's growing influence there.

In terms of regional stability, I tend to see the India-Pakistani rivalary as one of identity. In this sense, it is often played as a zero-sum game. India was founded as a secular democracy. Its first leader, Nehru, was an institution builder, who was scrupulous in his respect for democratic practices in those institutions. His successors did not always live up to the standard Nehru set.

Pakistan was founded as an Islamic state: the land for the Muslims - end of discussion. That country is still grappling with this identity today. India, in this context, has more Muslims inside its borders than the population of Pakistan. In fact, with 150,000,000 Muslims, India is the second largest Muslim state in the world after Indonesia.

The crux of the difference between India and Pakistan is identity in that India was founded as a pluralist, secular democracy. This is an identity that its recent national elections, BJP party to the contrary, confirmed. The presence of Sonia Gandhi as the head of the Congress Party is, I believe, important as a symbol of that party's and the sub-continent's commitment to pluralism.

Pakistan has chosen a completely different path, which further complicates a fragile institutional context. Policies that have a long-term perspective may find a lack of fertile soil in which to develop because of the internal factions and power rivalries amidst a corrupt system.

Micro-bank loans to address poverty, particularly the condition of women in rural areas in India as well as Pakistan, are a constructive approach. We have seen this in Bangladesh. What this approach cannot address in human or institutional terms is the issue of identity politics in South Asia and the ways in which this continues to impact on inter-state tensions in the region.

It is the Huntington versus Sen argument. Although I agree with Sen that people have multiple identities, as Asian, Indian and Muslim, for example, the pull of "clash of civilizations" remains strong. In terms of stability, which depends on structural factors and interests as well, identity differences should not be ignored.

Sincere regards, Colette
 
Donald  Stadler

August 17, 2009

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@Clayton,

"seems to highlight the different lenses with which Donald and I view the world."

Perhaps not so different as all that. I agree with you and Grace that initiatives in things like microfinance and independent media and judiciary are worth doing, even if I'm somewhat skeptical of their utility in a country where every moderate leader seems to get assassinated or overturned by a coup sooner or later (Bhutto and her father). Perhaps they would succeed in strengthening civil institutions in Pakistan in the longer run. Certainly they would seem to be necessary steps in such a strengthening.

One point we do seem to disagree with is the 'randomness' of the terrorist attacks upon India. You seemed to dismiss them as 'random' - I pointed out that they were not the work of random crazies; they were well-planned, well-armed, and supported by powerful elements within Pakistani intelligence with the apparent aim of destabilizing more liberal Pakistani governments and possibly that of India. Yes, I include Musharaff in that description, and certainly the late Benazir Bhutto, who was likely assassinated by these same people or close allies. Not to mention her father.

My point was not to denigrate your ideas, or most of what you and Grace have been writing about. Not at all. What I was responding to were comments made by two of the earlier commenters on this discussion that terrorism is far overstated as a threat, which struck me as more than a little insular. Anything which could easily lead to war between two nuclear powers cannot be dismissed so casually.

Is terrorism an existential threat to any of the western democracies? No it is not. But a State has the obligation to defend it's citizenry, in a positive manner if possible. That is not mere defense, but by surpressing the problem at the source.
 
Donald  Stadler

August 17, 2009

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Grace,

You wrote:

"India was founded as a secular democracy. Its first leader, Nehru, was an institution builder, who was scrupulous in his respect for democratic practices in those institutions."

I think Nehru was mostly supportive of democratic practices, but have to point out that Nehru agreed to a democratic plebiscite in Kashmir. But that has not occurred, has it? I've wiki'ed up a brief history of Kashmir since 1947, and it seems to be a mixed story. Both India and Pakistan have used force to impose their POV. Pakistan fomented a guerilla war against the Maharajah of Kashmir to force him to join Pakistan. The Maharajah then turned to India, who sent forces to repress the Pakistani forces. The subsequent leader of Kshmir seems to have made common cause with India but has also turned against them and been jailed for his pains. The promised plebiscite has not happened. I think the explanation has been it's because the Pakistanis haven't left Kashmir, but that wears a little thin after 50 years. In any case I don't think either Pakistan or India wish for a plebiscite; they want to win.

My sense is that Kashmir might prefer a fate independent of both countries, the aggressive Pakistan and the alien India, but that doesn't seem to be on offer.
 
Colette Grace Mazzucelli

August 17, 2009

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Greetings Donald,

Within India's institutions, I do believe that Nehru was scrupulous in his respect of democratic practices.

As I understand the history of Kashmir, India's occupation dates back to the signing of the Instrument of Accession by the Maharajah Hari Singh, ruler of the princely state of Jammu and Kashmir, on October 26, 1947.

India insists on the Line of Control as the permanent international boundary in Kashmir on the basis of the signed Instrument and is not in favor of a plebiscite to settle the dispute.

Pakistan, on the other hand, has supported a plebiscite to settle the matter in recent years. The genuine obstacle, in my understanding, is internal to Kashmir given the lack of leadership to lead an independence movement there amidst the instability fomented by terrorist acts.

I believe that you are correct to say that Kashmir would prefer an independent fate; however, in my understanding of the context on the ground, the leadership to deliver on that option in the long-term has yet to emerge.

That is a decisive obstacle independent of India's or Pakistan's actions.

All the best, Colette Grace
 
Colette Grace Mazzucelli

August 17, 2009

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Greetings Donald,

"BOP can work for a long time. Bismark showed that, the order created by the Congress of Vienna worked for almost a century more or less."

I agree that order endured although unlike today it was a system led and maintained by European leaders. There was no diversity in the system as we have today given the rise of China, India and other non-European powers.

"Of course the most successful example has been the post WWII order, if you wish to call that balance of power. With no major European war between 1945 and the present I think it's obvious that has been a major success."

I believe that the stablility inherent in the bipolar system, 1945-91, was the balance of terror, which depended on the nuclear weapons arsenals of the former USSR and the US. The arms race in the 1980s led to the decline of the system and the end of the Cold War. From this vantage point, that balance did not endure. In years to come, the Cold War is likely to be seen as an exception, not the rule, in terms of historical periods.

"I don't know whether that was BOP or not. Germany had alliances with Imperial Russia, Austro-Hungary, and Italy, and was able to maintain those alliances whilst he remained in power. But Bismark was a recognized diplomatic genius - once he passed from the scene the balance (and some of the alliances) crumbled."

The Bismarck era was, as I understand sustained by the balance of power. Leadership matters, as you underline. The alliance system upon which the balance depended, could not outlive the founder. As for the Nixon-Kissinger era, the leader who followed Nixon, former President Gerald Ford, was not inclined to continue a foreign policy in that tradition even though Dr. Kissinger was still active in government. Neither was former President Carter whose focus was human rights.

"India-Pakistan and Kashmir are certainly the most visible manifestations of the current balance of terror, but not the only ones. China and India have their tensions; Pakistan is in some respects a Chinese cats-paw being supported in order to keep India off-balance and occupied elsewhere. If India were finally to have enough with Pakistani-sponsored terrorism and were to go to war, the question is whether China would intervene apart from selling or giving arms to the Pakistanis. It would be difficult for the Chinese to do much direct damage to India over their direct border the Himalayas. The converse also applies of course."

I agree with your assessment, which supports the idea of the balance system of the 1980s - USSR-India versus US-Pakistan-China. The US-India rapprochement is interesting to follow in this context. From the US side, the aim is to fix India in the US orbit. India still keeps its options open in the realist tradition of foreign policy cultivating bilateral relations with Russia, particularly in terms of energy supplies.

"Seems to me the one reason for hope is that India does have strong institutions; Chinese musings that India could be broken into 30 parts to the contrary. Pakistan strikes me as quite similar to the Serbia or 1913, but India is not similar to the Austro-Hungarian Empire of 1913, so perhaps the centre can hold despite everything."

This is an important distinction to make in historical context. I believe the center can hold with the present institutions; yet, the issues of conflict are still primarily on the periphery. India could never be ruled from the center even under the Mughals, which makes me question how center-periphery relations will evolve as globalization intensifies in South Asia.

The five poorest states are likely to drive the population growth - and the poverty, with all this implies for conflict in terms of socio-economic disparities -, as India rises to overtake China as the most populous country in the world.

All the best, Colette

 
Donald  Stadler

August 17, 2009

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Greetings from London, Grace

"I agree with your assessment, which supports the idea of the balance system of the 1980s - USSR-India versus US-Pakistan-China."

Except that it's kind of been turned on it's head, with the warming of US-India relations during the Bush administration. It might shape up into IS - India vs Pakistan - China, though we are far from that now. US policy under Bush has been to maintain friendly relations with all three corners of that triangle, with marked warming toward India and some warming toward China, I think.

"The US-India rapprochement is interesting to follow in this context. From the US side, the aim is to fix India in the US orbit."

I disagree, I think. I think you could call the Bush policy "The New Realism". If the Nixon-Kissinger opening to China 40 years ago was Realism I, the Bush opening to India is Realism II. I don't think anyone believes Nixon was trying to 'fix' China in the US orbit but rather a recognition that China was a significant power with whom it would be advantageous to warm the relationship with. Similarly India. Absent a major slip, India will one day be a superpower, and is already a Great Power. creating a good relationship of equals is an investment in the future.

"India still keeps its options open in the realist tradition of foreign policy cultivating bilateral relations with Russia, particularly in terms of energy supplies."

And should it not? Everyone is doing that. Europe, China, and India. If the US tries to turn India into some kind of satellite it will end in tears. Treating India like a Great Power now (when China is behaving arrogantly, Russia in relative decline, and Europe still can't get it's collective act together is smart diplomacy. You will perhaps note certain similarities between Bush administration foreign policy toward India and Brazil. Both smart plays, a recognition of coming power in the world.
 
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August 24, 2009

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Mr. Ali,

Thank you for a brilliant article. I am a recent MS graduate of NYU's Center for Global Affairs. A great deal of my studies concentrated upon transnational terrorism and security issues. I could not agree more with the idea of using "carrots" for Pakistan and more "sticks" for the Gulf states. Although Pakistan is perhaps the most volatile place at the moment regarding terrorism, the truth is al Qaeda did not originate from Pakistan or Afghanistan. The entire 9/11 operation was developed by US allies, predominantly Saudis. I feel people often forget US enemy number one, Osama bin Laden, is in fact a Saudi. People also seem to forget the majority of 9/11 hijackers were all Saudis. As you mentioned, some terrorist funding comes from drug production, however a significant portion still comes from personal contributions from citizens residing in Gulf states, largely Saudi Arabia. While I do not believe the Saudi government is contributing to terrorist activity directly, I do think they must step up and take on a more active role to stop al Qaeda from growing and thriving. You are certainly correct by stating US foreign policy toward powerful Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia needs to change. Why should we have drones and military operations in Pakistan and Afghanistan while neglecting the source of the problem: Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states?

While the US has interests in Saudi trade and oil, there must be other ways for US to use a firm hand against Saudi policies that threaten the safety and security of Americans, and also Europeans. Mr. Ali, you mentioned Wahhabism as being a significant source of the problem. Indeed, US and European officials must take into greater consideration the dangers of radical Wahhabism spreading from Saudi Arabia throughout the Middle East. Although not all forms of Sunni Islam nor Wahhabism is a threat to national security, they are often misused and misinterpreted becoming a source for extreme violence. I recently attended a lecture with Prince Turki al-Faisal, former head of Saudi intelligence, in which he too expressed the need for the Saudis to take on a larger role in Middle Eastern affairs. Its wealth and geographic importance as home to the Holy Cities of Mecca and Medina give Saudi Arabia both power and regional influence. US and European nations must begin to push the Saudis, with "sticks" if necessary, to adopt policies that will reduce the spread and power of terrorist organizations. Although Pakistan and Afghanistan cannot be overlooked due to their immediate threat, focus should shift to the source of the problem and policies should be adjusted to address the Gulf states and those responsible for prolonging the power and capabilities of radical Islamist terrorist organizations such as al Qaeda.

 
Colette Grace Mazzucelli

August 26, 2009

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Dear Mr. Ali, Laura, and Atlantic-Community.org Colleagues,

I found this article informative given our discussions about this commentary. The points made speak to Mr. Ali's argument in his analysis. Now one of the questions to ask is how will this knowledge translate into constructive policy actions.

Please see the link

http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/asiapcf/08/25/afghanistan.pakistan.ho...

with the highlights

Holbrooke: Persian Gulf oil money fuels Taliban insurgencies

•Persian Gulf oil money is a major financing tool for Taliban, U.S. diplomat tells CNN

•Holbrooke: Oil financing outpaces Afghanistan's opium and heroin exports

•Much of Tuesday's meeting dealt with rebuilding after fighting in areas of Pakistan

•Holbrooke: Helping Afghanistan hold elections is a priority of Obama's administration

All the best and greetings from Old Town, Colette Mazzucelli
 
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August 27, 2009

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Thank you Professor Mazzucelli for the link you provided. It seems clear, especially from the comments made by Ambassador Holbrooke, that a major source of the problem in Afghanistan and Pakistan is the funding the Taliban and terrorist organizations are receiving from wealthy Gulf States. As you said: we have identified a major problem, but now where do we go from here? How can the US and Europe change their policies while maintaining friendly trade relations with the Gulf states? Will we have to give up our trade relations with the Gulf, perhaps even issue sanctions, in order to prevent future funding of terrorists? What will be the necessary course of action and what sacrifices will need to be made?
 
Shazad  Ali

August 29, 2009

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Dear Dr Mazzucelli and Ms Wicks,

Many thanks for appreciating the article and sharing your thoughts.

Ms Wicks, glad to know we have common interests (transnational terrorism and international relations). I fully agree that Saudi Arabia being an important element related to Al Qaeda has always been ignored by the West, although it is the main player.

Thanks for sending the link, Dr Mazzucelli. Perhaps Holbrooke had just reiterated that militants are being funded by the Gulf countries as he had already mentioned that some weeks before his CNN interview. But it is indeed informative.

I also believe that Saudi government may not be involved in funding the Al Qaeda or Taliban, but a lot of money must be coming from individuals or groups in the Gulf states, and we cannot ignore the Wahabi connection involved in it. But the problem is not the spread of Wahabism, but the real threat is the radicalisation of thoughts and portraying Wahabism or Islam in a concocted shape by the terrorists which is also a source of creating bridges between Muslims and non-Muslims. That needs to be eliminated.

Now, what "policy actions" are needed to tackle this situation is a million-dollar question. I think bombarding Saudi Arabia or any Gulf state would certainly not be a good idea. It may seem to be working in Pakistan in the short-term, but it may not work in the long-term. There is no need that US should cut off trade or bilateral ties with Saudi Arabia.

US must devise some methods in collaboration with Saudi government to stop the cash flow from the Gulf. Pakistan government has made strict banking procedures to prevent and keep a check on money coming from outside Pakistan which may be used for terrorist activities. First, the Saudi government should be asked to keep a check on money from being transferred from its banks.

However, it is a very complex issue. Funding for such activities also comes through hawala, while individuals carry money during travel as well just like Holbrooke said in his interview. For that it is now up to the US and the Saudi governments to prepare a plan to curb that activity.

As for the "stick", US had once told Pakistan that "it would bomb the country back to Stone Age if it refuses to co-operate in its "war on terror." Now the question is why not such a threat to Saudi Arabia. It is simple. US wants to safeguard its national interests; oil from Saudi Arabia and its investment in the US. The point is not that US should make such a threat to Saudi government. The point is that US has ways through which Saudi government can be forced to start working in stopping the funds in the real sense.

For instance, US has always emphasised on democracy while talking about Pakistan. Why not in Saudi Arabia? Democracy is the last thing which the people at the helm of the kingdom would want. One can say it can be a "big stick" enough to stimulate the people in the palaces.

By doing this, US may get what it wants, but in the same process might loose Saudi investment as a sort of retaliation. And that is a small sacrifice US would have to make.
 
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August 29, 2009

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One is in agreement with the need to stop the funding of terrorists. But then, why should not the scale be extended to every such group or groups that are involved in terrorism or supporting terrorism? Of course after one has carefully defined terrorism and analysed it since it is case sensitive at the least.

US aspirations seem very confusing and also very suspect. Is the US serious about combating terrorism? One sees US officials in US diplomatic cars sitting cozily with those segments of Indian population that is closest to what describes the Taliban - in at least their global view which may only be modified via their difference in religious affiliation as well location. New Delhi still continues to be New Delhi despite its numerous villages, slums etc. that form its refuge-areas for such people.

I have direct experience of seeing US officials sitting in US diplomatic cars in cozy conferencing with such elements. That they also pertain to a particular gentry that is specific to a particular grouping of political parties is merely the icing on the cake. One is not sure if other groups do not enjoy such open patronages in other banana republics. The issue of the crime-terror-prostitution networks is another dimension that perhaps other states specialize in, since the US is seen as more closer to such elements within the Indian populace and that of New Delhi and its environs.
So. However, the central issue here is in addressing the reasons that afford groups like the Taliban, etc. the resources towards fundings while people like me and my family are penalised and yes - subjected to indirect and direct violence (my father was subjected to direct violence even though he also had served as an officer with the Indian military). Are there explanations here? I specialized in Combating International Terrorism as my topic for my pre-doctoral thesis from the Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. I was soon warned by some officials of the embassy to stay silent. I now understand why.
In India the Talibanesque group is largely its peasantry from Hindustan. The other places show more of the suave/wanna-be-suave crime-terror-prostitution networks.
But that is a direct reporting of seeing US officials sitting cozy in US diplomatic cars with such civilized gentry.
I face their indirect violences nearly everyday and that defines the US as it defines India. But the incident speaks a lot over such areas that one calls terrorism.
Tags: | terror. religion | facts |
 
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August 29, 2009

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Corrigendum. It was the University officials who had asked me to remain silent. While the socialists went on trying to track my family, etc. Not the US embassy officials, except for the Indians dressed in black - the kites, etc. The typographical error is sincerely regretted.
Tags: | corrigendum |
 

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