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November 16, 2008

amarjyoti acharya

China occupies one's minds these days. Like the United States does alongwith Russia and a few other powers - the celebrities' club in the world-community. However, China's image-managers seem publicity-shy about such attention that world-community celebrities usually get. China se e ms to prefer to attain the material markers of a global celebrity minus the photo-ops. That makes China very in te resting and alluring, with a certain and natural curiosity about what car zooms out when the gate opens and what driver drives it and what traffic regulations has been hardwired in to the car's circuitry.

December 2, 2008

henelito a. sevilla, jr.

Moving forward and searching for the best locomotive for Chinese industrialization and rapid urbanization requires that the security of both energy of supply and demand be considered in a highly alarming manner.

Its true that since 1993 China has become a net importer of oil especially from the Middle East but its search for an alternative oil sources has shifted from the greater Middle East to Central Asia to the extend of Africa especially Angola. The 'great game' competition between US and Russia with the additional now of China, and Japan in the Central Asia has become very dangerous. Whoever 'controls oil' in these regions would automatically controls the world' economy. That will give the US a leverage since it has all the elements of power to dominate in the region. However, in a long range target, this dominance is becoming a liability because US is creating enemies not only between and among her competitiors who are the nation-states actors but also other transnational terrorists organizations who are influencing the future instability of these two vulnerable regions in the world.

With regards to the South China sea where it serves as the passing point of world trade movement from Persian Gulf to the rest of Asia and Pacific, I really dont think China could be considered as Threat but rather China in this sense can be cooperative with the United States and the existing countries in the region.

What will be the future threat in the South China Sea is not China itself, although it has upgraded its "Blue Army". What will be considered to be the future threat will be in the narrow Malacca Strait where potential terrorist groups could sabotage and control the ares. China needs the stability of the South CHina sea for its future economic survival and in as much as possible it will try to avoid future revalries with competing states and even with Taiwan. It would be naive to argue that Taiwan can be the sole consideration of China with regards to its need for oil. One has to recognized how the strait of malacca can be vulnerable to future attacks and sabotages. Suffice it to say that the Vital Sea lane of Communication has to be secured through regional and international cooperation.

Hence, the world should not interpret the necessessity of China on oil as a basis where future wars occur. Today's world interdependency allows us to think that acting alone can not be sufficient to address out national interests and security,rather, it will demand more closer cooperation to imbark on a secured and sustainable economic growth and development.

at the end I would like to say that the so called "Chinese Theat thesis" shoul be avoided and instead the US to seek American companies to invest in Chinese energy projects so as to minimize the potential expectation of percieving China as threat.

December 2, 2008

Donald Stadler, Self-employed, Diamond Contributor (1052)

Th last comment mkes some interesting points, but the final suggestion that the US government encourage US oil companies to help develop oil sources close to China is potentially dangerous in itself, because the Chinese could well regard it as meddling on the part of the US. It would also put the US oil companies in a certain danger, the danger that major investments are made long way from home and in a locate where their invesment could be expropriated. China has not done this to date, but Russia has deliberaely made it difficult for it's oil partners to operate in Russia, effectively forcing them to sell their interests in Russian oil fields to interests favored by Putin.

I think China is fully capable of developing it's own reserves, and might well view it that way. It would not be unbtoward for US companies to offer assistance if requested - but China should be dealt with respectfully at all times.

The same thing goes for cooperation, of course China's voice should be heard.

January 17, 2009

Sonja Davidovic, Castalia, Gold Contributor (116)

Gentlemen,

I appreciate your comments.

I just wanted to clarify a couple of points.
The terms "vulnerability" and "sensitivity" refer to the impact of geopolitical events on China's economic and commercial realities. In this context, vulnerability denotes long-term and sensitivity short-term effects on Chinese oil and gas import prices. This perspective allows a sober analysis of China's international energy ties and diversification efforts, without the need of taking sides or engaging in "friend" or "foe" discussions.

The rising energy demand of emerging economies is the starting point from which to identify mutually beneficial forms of energy cooperation. One form is commercial and political risk sharing through multinational project finance arrangements in the upstream and midstream sector, as you rightly point out. The joint investment activities with the participation of relevant international financial institutions, induce mutually profitable operations and thus contribute to closer economic and financial ties between the participating countries in general. These ties, in turn, potentially serve as the most efficient trust and confidence building measures in a world of depleting fossil energy resources. Other forms of energy cooperation relate to securing energy transportation lines. Disruptions of energy supplies through the Malacca Straits, caused by potential Sino-American tensions, could severely hurt the Chinese economy. Under normal circumstances, however, the presence of the US Navy in South East Asia only enhances the security of China's energy imports. The adoption of a UN Security Council resolution on fighting piracy in the territorial waters of Somalia might indicate that China has a genuine interest in protecting its precious energy imports from Latin American and Africa.

So much for fossil fuels...However, we will start facing severe oil shortages long before the last drop of oil is pumped from the ground. In order to prevent wars and conflicts as a result of that shortage, it is absolutely pressing to broaden international cooperation in the renewable energy sector.

Plans of the incoming US administration to intensify the development and use of alternative energy sources will not only have positive effects on the US economy in terms of job creation and the increase of the national export potential, but also boost global energy cooperation. Joint investments and international R&D projects will lower the prices of renewable energy technology and facilitate important innovation in research and development. Thus, this technology will become more accessible in less developed economies and it will cover the needs of remote off-grid rural areas in India and China. In the overall context, going green can become a profitable business operation for the private sector, key milestones in designing economic and social development policies in the public sector and contribute to the fight against global climate change.

If the new US administration seized the momentum, it could take the global lead in the design and use of renewable technology, thereby setting a good example to other polluting countries and increasing its leverage in global warming negotiations.

June 24, 2009

Stefano Queirolo

Honestly, dear Ms. Davidovic,
all what you have written seems to be more than reasonable and besides very interesting.

I truly appreciate your work.

Moreover, I sincerely suggest you to go on like this!

My warmest regards,

Stefano