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November 18, 2008 |  11 comments |  Print | E-Mail Your Opinion  

Congratulations Mr. President ... Here is our Agenda

Thomas Bauer: Barack Obama’s election has created a ground swelling of excitement in Europe. In an effort to revitalize transatlantic relations, several issues need to be addressed. First and foremost, Europe needs to get its own house in order if it expects the new President to heed its calls for greater cooperation.

The global Obamania hype has reached European soil. Expectations are gigantic. But the fate of the transatlantic relationship does not solely depend on Barack Obama. Its fate will rather be decided by the way Europeans react to and interact with the new US President, as well as to what extent they are willing and able to set an agenda and contribute to its implementation.

The current, rather passive, European approach concerning the future of transatlantic relations is founded on a substantial strategic deficit within most EU member states’ capitals. It limits Europeans to being spectators and passive bystanders instead of being proactive, contributing partners.

Consequently, two things need to change if the EU’s role within the transatlantic partnership is to be saved from marginalization. First, the US needs to give up its reluctance to accept the reality of a multipolar world order. Second, the EU needs to become a credible partner for Washington, capable of dealing with the major tasks of our time. The first step cannot be achieved without the latter. Nevertheless, it is primarily the European Union that holds the key to this development. It can be achieved by convincing the US of the transatlantic partnership’s efficiency within a multipolar system.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s efforts to negotiate a cease fire agreement between Russia and Georgia, Brussels’ decision to launch an observation mission in that area, and the EU’s initiatives concerning the financial crisis have been good steps forward. Europe needs to continue on that road in order to keep up with the pace that was set by the dynamics of political, economic, financial, and social interdependencies.

Military force no longer represents the core element of political power. It rather derives from effectively dealing with the risks and challenges that have snuck into our homes and lives, such as energy security, climate change or the financial crises. Consequently, today’s politics are about developing convincing and efficient structures for defining and implementing solutions to specific tasks. Examples of such include:

  1. Creating internationally approved guidelines for a new global financial system that help overcome the current deficits of and the public mistrust in the banking sector. Likewise, they must provide options for future business by supporting the progress of finding answers to shared challenges. This effort has to be founded on the economic reality of today, meaning there must be an acceptance of the continuing shift of economic power toward Asia.
  2. Energy security and climate change have to remain top priorities for further political and – even more important – economic dialogue between the United States and Europe. Especially with the financial crisis affecting national budgets and funding plans for research and development, the topic of restoring ecologic stability and safety for our children and grandchildren needs to be preserved as a major priority for political action.
  3. Fostering the global non-proliferation regime through a commitment to open dialogue. Against the constant dynamics of political and economic power in a web constituted by many centres of gravity, weapons of mass destruction (WMD) should never become an instrument for securing the dominance of a unipolar system.
  4. Developing forums for strategic transatlantic and international dialogue by restructuring and reanimating the G8, NATO, and the United Nations. In particular, with regard to NATO, the transatlantic partners need to develop options beyond the Article 5 Alliance in order to overcome the militarization of transatlantic relations since 9/11. In the case of Georgia, NATO and its limited options for action (membership or no membership) have proven to be more of a problem than a solution in this area of overlapping neighborhoods with Moscow.
  5. European Union member states need to show their readiness to take in prisoners released from the Guantanamo Bay detention camp who face the danger of falling victim to persecution and torture in their home countries. If one argues against Guantanamo and calls for the protection of human rights, then one has the obligation to help when there is an opportunity to put an end to the Guantanamo system.


Topics such as Iraq or Afghanistan should be avoided in the beginning because they have poisoned any attempt to reanimate the transatlantic partnership in the past. However, sustainable and measurable progress in the areas mentioned above could provide the common ground and public support needed for touching the sensitive issue of more European commitment in those areas of conflict. We may not always share the same opinions, but we are doomed to co-operate because we are bound to each other. That is the true nature of what Barack Obama called the “community of common destiny” in his speech in Berlin.

Thomas Bauer is a political scientist working in the fields of foreign, security and defense policy, armaments cooperation, and transatlantic relations. He works at the Center for Applied Policy Research at the University of Munich

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Bernhard  Lucke

November 18, 2008

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Very nice post. I agree completely. The coming months and the year will see very important decisions.

In this context, I find it interesting to note that the Bush government found an agreement with the Iraqis. But the media coverage (at least in Germany) was not very strong - although it is probably one of the most important decisions for this decade. U.S. troops will stay for another three years after the end of the U.N. mandate, but it seems that's it, and there are no attempts to blackmail Iraq into a forced agreement exceeding this period.

This is very good news and might relieve the new president and transatlantic relations of one of the most burdensome tasks.
 
Donald  Stadler

November 18, 2008

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This is a very interesting discussion. A few observations:

"The current, rather passive, European approach concerning the future of transatlantic relations is founded on a substantial strategic deficit within most EU member states’ capitals."

I agree that Europe have been unable to act as a partner of the US. This is one reason, but Europe has two strategic personae - neither which has heretofore been able to act as an equal partner. The passive one mentioned above, I'll call it Dr. Jeckel.

There is also the forceful European persona - call it Mr. Hyde. Mr. Hyde is the 800 pound gorilla of international diplomacy, and can be seen in the 'negociation' of international treaties and at the UN. The way these things work, the EU nations negociate among themselves and come to a concensus beforehand, then propound the treaty without really negociating with the US; the EU's wishes are usually at least 95% of the final language. The US POV is carefully listened to and then ignored. Then events go down their well-trodden path to hell. The US refuses to ratify the treaty, 'enlightened' Europeans denounce the US, and greater mistrust is then harbored on both sides.

Neither the passive persona nor the active persona is useful in being a partner; one is a nonentity, the other demands to be dictator!

This doesn't only apply to new treaties, either. Within the past decade the Geneva Convention was effectively rewritten, or rather re-interpreted, to mean that rights which had previously belonged only to soldiers of a recognized nation should now be extended to all combatants regardless. Groups like Al Qeada which are not signatories of any treaty and do not abide by international law are now to be treated as first class participants under Geneva. This was a radical, massive reinterpretation of international law.

Do not people see what this means for the proper development of International law? It dooms it, because countries now know that what they sign this year can be radically redefined after a treaty is enacted, but they will be bound under international law to uphold the new interpretations - whatever they are. Only states willing to ignore international law or who believe they won't be put into the position to test it can afford to sign new treaties.
 
Marek  Swierczynski

November 18, 2008

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Very insightful analysis, but a bit too optimistic in reviewing Europe's progress. Sarkozy’s efforts are a bit of a joke now, when Russia’s achieved what it wanted, not matching the status quo criteria – which Sarko himself admitted. It looks that the energy business prevailed, but again it’s Europe that’s digging deeper into Siberian oilfields rather than making use of Russia’s renewable resources. In proliferation and arms control, Europe has achieved only the announced deployment of Russian middle-rande Iskander ballistic missiles within NATO and the EU borders, a move unprecedented in more than 20 years. It is absolutely true that Article 5 is not enough now and NATO needs more options, below rather than above the common defence clause. It is quite striking that this analysis recommends removing Iraq and Afghanistan from the agenda – look what is listed just above. I very much agree: both are failures beyond repair, one could only minimise the negative results. Keeping al-Qaeda at bay is another issue, but al-Qaeda is probably closer to the West than Hindukush, even if landscapes there are better. I would re-phrase Don's paralel - Europe may be rowing its boat on international policy seas quite well, but there is a tiger on board, a Siberian one if you like.
 
Unregistered User

November 19, 2008

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there is another topic that is becoming the next decade main worry :

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/soma...

um ,Sarko-ci, Sarko-ça, OK, who then in EU ???? didn't see that any former president managed anything , but were only worried about saving their own country interests

France doesn't need russian oil or gas, 83% nuclear energy, Sahara gas...

so easy to talk, but which counties need to ly in front of the oligarcs ? and weren't likely to take position, nether on the eastern front, nor on the western front, say, some kind of ostrich policy !!!

OK, the western front should pay and die for them

what a bunch of whinners !!!!




 
Member deleted

November 20, 2008

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I think that discussion over transatlantic cooperation or agenda should not be reduced to security or military topics alone. The basis of EU however is economical cooperation and if EU can operate a single economical area it really can be a big player on international forums. Economical development tools and sc. soft power can at best decrease tensions which otherwise could escalate violent conflicts.

Transatlantic cooperation is of course more than EU-US relation - wider circle includes e.g. EU's Mediterranean dimension, Russia, Eurasia and BRIC countries.
 
Christia  Flourentzou

November 21, 2008

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This is a very interesting discussion with many insightful comments. What I wanted to add is that while politics play an important role in determining the direction of the relationship, it needs to be accounted that the transatlantic relationship is based on the fact that the EU and the US speak a common language; the language of democracy, human rights, free markets and progress. The Bush administration has not changed the equally shared commitment to such values. What President Bush did was to change the language and become incomprehensible. He changed the language from one of multilateralism to one of unilateralism and he shifted from a tradition of advising one another before action to 'do it alone' policy. Historically, the transatlantic relation is strained during Republican administrations and eases during Democratic administrations. I believe this cycle will hold.

At the same time, I agree that the US needs to accept the reality of a mutlipolar world order and that Europe needs to become the worthy partner of Washington. I think that Europe needs to share responsibility on the military field and emphasise its success in aid provision and post war reconstruction projects. Further, the EU stands as a great economic power in the way it combines the economies of 27 member states. I think the EU should insist on the role of global economic interdependencies and continue with the steps it took in relation to the financial crisis.

Overall, I think that the transatlantic relation is one which will hold despite the tensions and loss of trust that have been characterising the relation in the last few years. The EU needs the US as much as the US needs Europe. The relation holds benefits which go both ways and is based on a common vision and common values which cannot be brushed aside.
 
Member deleted

November 21, 2008

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One common custom is to equate European perspective and sc. Western values. I totally oppose this equivalence. Almost half of Europe´s territory and 30 % population is not EU members. Western Europe shows only one part of wholeness of our continent, eastern Europe and also Byzantium are part of continent´s history. Perspective can point East as well than West. Today also radical Islam is challenging both Europe's Western and Eastern values. Unilateralism (anglo-saxon western point of view) indeed gives too narrow picture of Europe today, pluralistic view is needed.
 
Christia  Flourentzou

November 21, 2008

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An interesting article on the reality of multipolarity...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7741049.stm


In a line, the argument is that China, India and Russia will challenge US economic and military preponderance. The US will be influential but no longer hegemonic. It is interesting to keep in mind that such debates on the potential decline of the US have occurred numerous times in the past. In terms of academic debates Kennedy’s (1987) The rise and Fall of the Great Powers and different works from Professor Michael Cox capture the declinist debate quite well.
 
Member deleted

November 21, 2008

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To Christia, maybe my article "While EU is blocking Serbia BRIC could be an good alternative" on 18th Sep.2008 is interesting for you. One may find it from my Archives:Blog address http://arirusila.wordpress.com
Tags: | BRIC |
 
Donald  Stadler

November 21, 2008

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"The US will be influential but no longer hegemonic."

I'm not sure that the US has been a true hegenomy for a long time. What is the measure of a hegenomy? That a large part of the world obeys the orders of the hegemon, I would think.

So when has this been true within the recent past? When Uncle Sam snaps out orders, does the EU jump and say 'Yes Sir! How high, sir?'. Or China, or Canada, or Mexico, or anyone?

I don't think so. Nor did they ever do so that I can think of. The period between 1945 and 1950 was probably the 'high water point' of the US 'hegenomy' if ever there was one. So what happened during those years? The US 'lost' China. North Korea invaded South Korea, the US intervened and almost was pushed right off into the ocean. Later, China intervened in that war and forced an alacritous and very long retreat on the US forces in North Korea. A bit earlier the USSR exploded their first atomic bomb.

Not much of a hegemon even then it seems. Indeed there have if anything been far fewer huge setbacks for the US since 2001 than there were during the period 1945-1950.

Most pople inthe US have no wish to be a hegemon, and that ultimately controls in the end. I think the US has nough power to be a kind hegemon if is wished to be (at least for a while), but the wish isn't there.

In fact I will go further than state that I think the American public wants to pull back not only from Iraq and Afghanistan but also from roles which the world have found extremely useful even if they don't wish to give thanks or acknowledgement for. This is the real danger more than American hegenomy, which is reluctant at best. Americans have had their faces pounded with such vigor and enthusiasm by self-styled 'friends' that many of us merely wish to disengage and let everyone go to hell in their own way, whether they call themself friend or adversary.
 
Adam K. Svensson

November 22, 2008

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The EU and the US cannot yet be considered equals as concerns many of the crucial political issues of our time. As Thomas Bauer rightly observes, the US must 'give up its reluctance to accept the reality of a multipolar world order,' but I believe that Bauer at the same time underestimates the significance of the military factor. Even though most states very seldomly need to make good on their promises and threats in international relations, they must uphold the image of being able to do so when necessary. Looking back at our history, this mechanism seems a fact, whether we like it or not. In order for the EU and the US to become equal partners, I hence believe that the EU has to further its ambitions to create a much more intimate military cooperation as already hinted at in the CFSP.

Along the same line of reasoning, the Lisbon Treaty will probably prove to be a large step forward in matching the EU with the US. The EU is today in certain ways extremely unattractive to negotiate with. The reason for this is that the EU consists of 27 different actors with their own agendas. Consequently, the EU is much less able to make concessions than unitary actors, such as the US, are. Naturally, the ability to make certain concessions is an important feature of all negotiations. This inablility must therefore reasonably be dealt with, and only thereafter can the EU in reality become more of an equal partner to the US.

The paradox of the above is that the EU has to take steps that are against its immediate and short-term preferences in order to gain in the longer term; it has to undergo a military surge in order to gain peace, and it has to weaken its negotiatory advantages in order to become a more attractive partner to the US and thereby a more powerful actor overall in the international arena.
 

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