While EU membership prospects seem to be fading in the West Balkans, Dr. Dušan Reljić, Balkan expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), observes the following on Euractiv:
“The regaining of strength of Russian political and economic influence in the West Balkans has far-reaching consequences for the policy of the EU in that region. At present, Russia aims to curb the American predominance in the West Balkans in order to strengthen its position in international relations… The EU will only hold its ground if it actually proceeds efficiently with enlargement policies in the West Balkans. The more countries are ‘europeanized,’ the faster they will resolve their existing conflicts and the less they will seek political support from Russia, the US, or Islamic States.”
Despite this possibility of improvement for EU-Balkan relations, the Irish Times observes rising frustration in the West Balkans, especially in light of Iceland’s admission progress.
Another danger for the region is the possible collapse of fragile Bosnia-Herzegovina. Croatian President Stipe Mesić warned against this possibility in a Spiegel Online article in late 2008. He further asserted that the secession of the Republic of Srpska could lead to a new war in Europe. Due to this rising conflict potential, Atlantic Community envoked this Theme Week.
On Tuesday, Balkan expert Daniel Korski from the European Council on Foreign Relations analyzes the situation in Bosnia and the potential threat to European security posed by Serb politician Milorad Dodik.
On Wednesday, Elizabeth Pond, journalist and author of “Endgame in the Balkans,” discusses the current status of Kosovo.
On Thursday, Tomislav Maršić from the German Institute for International Affairs (SWP) attends to the consequences for EU accession of the Croatian-Slovenian border dispute and the necessary future EU agenda.
And on Friday, Prof. Dr. Wolfgang Stock concentrates on the political blockade applied by Slovenia and Greece constraining Croatian and Macedonian EU ambitions respectively.
Dear members of Atlantic Community,
• Do you believe that a new Balkan war is likely?
• What is the most pressing ‘powder keg’ in the Balkans today?
• How should the UN and EU de-escalate Balkan tensions?
Prospective Schedule
- Tuesday: Daniel Korski: Solving Europe’s Bosnia Crisis
- Wednesday: Elizabeth Pond: Kosovo: Balkan Success Story and Future EU Member?
- Thursday: Tomislav Marsic: The Blocked Bloc
- Friday: Wolfgang Stock: How Will Europe Protect Itself against the Nationalist Virus?
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August 3, 2009
Tony Bryant
The best and most stable long-term solution would be for the super-powers to stop treating the Balkan States as a no-mans-land and start recognising that the citizens of those States deserve to be allowed to determine their own destiny, by means of democracy and diplomacy.
The US and Russia have a global responsibility to act jointly to support those aims, but do not have the right to behave as Russia did in Georgia for instance, and impose its will, outside its borders, for its own benefit.
Similarly, the US must recognize that placing missiles in Eastern Europe today, is no less provocative than Kryschew sending them to Cuba 50 years ago.
Perhaps Eastern Europe and the Balkan States should become a Demilitarised Zone, several hundreds of miles wide, established by means of yet another United Nations mandate.
It's a high hope, but maybe only that will demonstrate to each super power that the other is genuinely committed to regional independence and the end of global expansionism, which has been at the root of super-power tensions for most of the time since 1945.