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January 28, 2011

Paul-Robert Lookman, http://geopolitiek-in-perspectief.blogspot.com/, Platinum Contributor (280)

I question the wisdom of putting this issue up for debate at this hectic moment.

With European and American leaders having supported these autocratic, corrupt and oppressive regimes for decades, I believe it behooves us, European and American subjects, in all modesty to keep silent on the struggles by the brave populations where scores of victims are to be deplored, and where nobody can predict any outcome.

All we should do in my view is to offer moral and (peaceful) material support to the populations fighting for freedom, insist free access of our and local media to monitor the events, press our governments to push for real democracy in these countries, and hope and pray for an outcome causing the least amount of blood.

January 28, 2011

Michael Schuster, University of Vienna, Silver Contributor (69)

Right now, the West should tell Mubarak and his generals that they need to stop the violence from the security forces, because the West will not return to business-as-usual.

I think Obama, Biden, Clinton, and Gates and the joint chiefs of staff are doing so already.

The Egyptian military is the key here. The generals are not all in Mubarak's pockets, but see themselves as above the political system.

January 28, 2011

Joerg Wolf, Atlantic Community, Editor

Fascinating: Al Jazeera's English language Livestream:
http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/

It's free, but you need the Real Player.

On demand videos: http://www.youtube.com/aljazeeraenglish

January 28, 2011

Niklas Anzinger, Student of Philosophy & Economics, Platinum Contributor (708)

A good, quick move by the AC - big up! I´m already watching the Livestream!

My leader did support the autocratic Arab regimes - yes, I know, I critizised them for that. Why should I keep silent now, as events take place that I hoped for a long time? Did I support these regimes?

Though, I will keep an close eye on prospective Islamist ambitions - I not worried about Tunesia, but I have second thoughts about Egypts. Anyway, their uprising is justified!

January 30, 2011

Carsten Rettig, Freie Universität Berlin - Center for Global Politics, (8)

Where are the Islamists? Maybe this is the most crucial questions from the “Western” point of view. The Arabic regimes have been supported by the “West” because they granted a stable environment and suppress Islamist currents, as long as their peoples could arrange somehow with these regimes. Yet this requirement seems to have been infringed.
As my co-commentators have outlined, currently there are no Islamists actively participating publicly in the protests. What could be the rationale behind?
Focusing on Egypt the Muslim Bothers are seen as the main opposing Islamist group and still are not involved in the protests against the regime of Mubarak. There are two arguments considerable and even mutual supportive. First, the autocratic regime perceives them as the major thread to the political system and thus keeps a tight grip and focus on them. It would be enlightening to see who is in charge or takes the lead in suppressing the Muslim Brothers? The Police? The military? Intelligence service?
Second, he Muslim Brotherhood recognizes that joining the protesst would provide legitimacy to the regime of Mubarak in terms of being a stronghold against Islamists, a rationale why this regime has been supported by the “West”, similar to the French support to the recently overthrown regime in Tunisia.
Hence the upcoming challenge might be a second Islamist revolution subsequent to the current “liberally” inclined revolution. The latter knocks out the autocratic regime thus enabling the Islamists to cause further unrest and to conduct a second revolution aiming on bringing peace and stability on their terms.
What stands against this scenario? Regarding Tunisia, the Islamists have been shattered by Ben Ali’s regime. In addition the Tunisian society is more modern and sophisticated in terms of civil and especially women’ rights. Here more resistance against fundamental and archaic Islamists can be expected.
Regarding Egypt, I agree that the Egyptian military is the key. Yet there is one mayor requirement. It has to keep on the sidelines of the current protests as it has done hitherto. Thus it will keep a clean slate and the legitimacy to restore and maintain order after an eventual overthrow of the Mubarak regime. Then the Egyptian military will be perceived as purely fighting radicals instead of suppressing the Egypt people in the case of a eventual second Islamist revolution.
How should the “West” react? I think the West performs quite well as how it does currently. Highlighting the need for peaceful protests as well as the call for avoiding violence against protesters is underpinning an emphasis on peaceful changes. Direct support for certain groups or currents should be avoided, because this could provoke backlashes that play into the hands of Islamists and we might see burning US flags.

January 30, 2011

John Muller

Can Omar Suleiman, long-time head of intelligence, as vice-president and former Air Force chief (the job Mubarak himself used to have) Ahmed Shafiq as prime minister stabilize the situation? Perhaps. He is an able man. But to have the man who has organized repression running the country is not exactly a step toward libertarian democracy.

Realistic assessment from Barry Rubin: There are two basic possibilities: the regime will stabilize (with or without Mubarak) or power will be up for grabs. Now, here are the precedents for the latter situation:

Remember the Iranian revolution when all sorts of people poured out into the streets to demand freedom? Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is now president.

Remember the Beirut spring when people poured out into the streets to demand freedom? Hizballah is now running Lebanon.

Remember the democracy among the Palestinians and free elections? Hamas is now running the Gaza Strip.

Remember democracy in Algeria? Tens of thousands of people were killed in the ensuing civil war.

It doesn't have to be that way but the precedents are pretty daunting.

What did Egyptian tell the Pew poll recently when asked whether they liked "modernizers" or "Islamists"? Islamists: 59%; Modernizers: 27%. Now maybe they will vote for a Westernized guy in a suit who promises a liberal democracy but do you want to bet the Middle East on it?

January 30, 2011

Claudiu Dan Degeratu, EURISC Foundation, Silver Contributor (64)

FYI,
Expected Scenarios for the Future of Governance in Egypt, published in July 2010
http://www.aljazeera.net/mritems/streams/2010/7/21/1_1005090_1_51.pdf
The study seems to be elaborated for the ”This paper served as a discussion catalyst at a symposium that included a select group of experts and analysts who are members of the Jama’at al-`Amal al Watani (Group for National Action), which was formed in March 2010 during a major conference of the Journalists’ Syndicate.”
Seems that this Group for National Action is apparently close to islamist movement. I hav done just a short research maybe not so relevant to imply close connections. I do not want to suggest that this study has an radical source of inspiration.

January 31, 2011

Eric Boule

The crowds in the ME and Egypt lost their fears and continue demonstrating.You cannot keep the masses of one miljard people from progres and human rights because the US+EU wanted this.Heigh time for the EU to change their policy and support the democratic process that they denied these people for so long.Also the original plan of Churchill+Adenhauer+DeGaulle can then be realized of a Europe in peace,prosperity and good cooperation with surrounding countries and continets to the benefit of all

February 1, 2011

Joerg Wolf, Atlantic Community, Editor

@ Eric,

Prime Minister David Cameron, President Nicolas Sarkozy and Chancellor Angela Merkel heard you and issued a joint UK-France-Germany statement on the situation in Egypt:

“We are deeply concerned about the events that we are witnessing in Egypt. We recognise the moderating role President Mubarak has played over many years in the Middle East. We now urge him to show the same moderation in addressing the current situation in Egypt.

“We call on President Mubarak to avoid at all costs the use of violence against unarmed civilians, and on the demonstrators to exercise their rights peacefully.

“It is essential that the further political, economic and social reforms President Mubarak has promised are implemented fully and quickly and meet the aspirations of the Egyptian people.

“There must be full respect for human rights and democratic freedoms, including freedom of expression and communication, including use of telephones and the internet, and the right of peaceful assembly.

“The Egyptian people have legitimate grievances and a longing for a just and better future. We urge President Mubarak to embark on a process of transformation which should be reflected in a broad-based government and in free and fair elections.”

http://www.number10.gov.uk/latest-news/2011/01/joint-uk-france-germ...

February 2, 2011

Anamaria Tamas, Institute for Cultural Diplomacy , Silver Contributor (43)

Dear Mr. Carsten Rettig,
Regarding your first question about the absence of the Islamists from the current protests in Egypt, I disagree with both of your possible arguments as the direct cause for their lack of spearheading involvement. I think it is much simpler than that. This is not a protest against repression of religion, or freedom to practice one's religion (in this case a more fundamental interpretation), or even other freedoms that define a more advanced form of democracy. It is actually about the rife corruption and unworkability of the whole political and administrative systems that render everyday life impossible: bribery, high prices versus low wages, lack of accountability, red tape, decrepit roads and health care etc. We have seen this over and over again in places like Eastern Europe and Latin America. I remember reading a very interesting book by Wladimir Kaminer ("Russian Disko") where he describes how much energy and time the everyday Russian wastes in Russia on fighting the arbitrary corruption and intricate inconsistencies of the administrative structure, to the point that one gives up in despair to pursue his desired goal, and by this I mean simple things like opening a bank account or getting a blood test. Furthermore, this kind of administrative "putrefaction" does not only decrease the economic quality of life, but it creates extreme unhappiness, frustration and antagonism among the people, making life almost worthless.
I believe the protests in Egypt are about this impossibility to carry on with one's life because corruption has reached such high levels that basic everyday transactions and social norms are impossible to achieve anymore (the latest economic recession and inflation further reduced the people's potential to impact their lives). This phenomenon is not unique to Egypt or Tunisia, it has occurred in Communist Eastern Europe, Ukraine (Orange Revolution) etc and this is why i do not think it has anything to do with religion or radical Islam. It is about the universal right to a reasonable life.
However, I find your predictions/prescriptions about the future of Islamist involvement and the military very accurate.

February 2, 2011

Michael Schuster, University of Vienna, Silver Contributor (69)

2011 is going to be a very interesting year.

By staying in the background, the Islamists are very shrewd in the revolutions!

"Islamists emerge as powerful force in the new Tunisia"
http://blogs.reuters.com/faithworld/2011/02/02/islamists-emerge-as-...

February 3, 2011

Paul-Robert Lookman, http://geopolitiek-in-perspectief.blogspot.com/, Platinum Contributor (280)

@ Mr Wolf,
As editor-in-chief, you come with a swift reply to Mr Boule, a non AC member. However, I wonder if it is very encouraging and quite to the point. Those who are conversant with Middle East issues of the last decades know what the “moderating role that Mubarak has played” in actually stood for: contributing to the creation of the conditions under which the US and its key ally Israel could realize their political agendas, incl. UNSC resolutions either vetoed, or simply defied, and to the continued rule of other autocrats in the region who serve US/Israeli interests and suppress their populations.

Now that Mubarak had actually poured oil on the fire at the cost of hundreds of victims, I feel the declaration of the European leaders is outrageously hypocritical. It is also hypocritical for the European leaders to call on Mubarak - who has clearly lost all credibility among his population - to address their “legitimate grievances”.

The fact that these three neo-conservative leaders issue a joint statement, rather than using the vehicle of the EU for that purpose, is indicative for the division in Europe, a continent with post-colonial responsibilities in the region, which they so persistently redeem…

Mubarak has ruled Egypt for 30 years, most of which without legitimacy by his electorate. What Europe should do is call for Mubarak and his entourage to step down immediately, allowing “the people” to choose their own leaders.