One side-effect of the Bush administration's Middle East policy that has not received much attention is the declining popularity of the United States among the Arab Gulf states. For decades the US has been the key external actor and security guarantor to the population-poor but oil-rich monarchies. However, there are still various unresolved threats in the Middle East such as the instability of Lebanon and the Iranian nuclear program, which also affect the safety of the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Therefore, these states are seeking alternative arrangements to enhance security.
Even though the violence in Iraq is regressive right now, the country is far from being stable, and the impact of the perceived failure of the Washington's Iraq strategy cannot be underestimated. The war has undermined US security credibility instead of demonstrating the strength of America, as the neoconservatives would have hoped. Therefore, the ruling elite of the Gulf recognize that unipolarity is on the decline and that security guarantees cannot be provided by only one ally any longer.
Due to the unstable situation in Iraq, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) recently announced its intention to write-off billions of dollars of Iraqi debt and to appoint an ambassador to Iraq. This not only has an economic effect, but also an impact on security: one way to prevent the Iraqi crisis from affecting local security is to strengthen the Iraqi economy and revitalize diplomatic ties with Iraq.
Another consequence of the Iraq war and the fragmentation of the country is the power vacuum that has emerged in the surrounding region, which Iran is trying to fill. Although the GCC states view Iran with distrust, in part due to the conflict between the UAE and Iran over the Abu Musa and Tunbs Islands, the GCC is still trying to improve diplomatic ties with Iran, as the Iranian President's attendance at the GCC summit in 2007 proves.
In comparison with the US, who would still rather isolate and pressure Iran even after some recent strategy shifts, the EU continuously joins the GCC in attempting to solve the crises through diplomatic efforts. This was confirmed in May at the 18th EU-GCC Joint Council and Ministerial Meeting in Brussels. The final press release of the meeting expresses the joint commitment to a diplomatic solution, while also emphasizing the need to fully implement all relevant UNSC resolutions.
Other diplomatic initiatives of the Gulf states, such as Qatar's involvement in implementing a ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel in 2006 or Saudi-Arabia's negotiations between Hamas and Fatah in 2007, have also been closer to the EU's position than to the US's. Even more importantly, these initiatives show that the GCC states have a broad understanding of security, and that they have started to take action concerning regional security matters themselves. This development deserves more attention by EU policymakers.
The center of gravity in the Arab world is shifting to the Gulf, and the vitality of the global economy depends on the region. The EU runs the risk of missing out on crucial developments and would be well advised to acknowledge common positions on various security issues thereby strengthening its ties with the GCC countries.
The EU-GCC Joint Council and Ministerial Meeting is one forum for consultation between the GCC and EU officials, but it only takes place once a year. Considering the relatively deinstitutionalized nature of the GCC countries foreign policy, this is not sufficient.Europe needs to intensify its commitment to the EU-GCC and develop a common vision of its involvement in the region. Moreover, benchmarks of cooperation should be formulated, which not only focus on the establishment of a Free Trade Agreement, but also include security issues.
Keeping in mind both institutions' problems coordinating the interests of their members, bilateral partnerships and diplomatic initiatives between the EU and GCC countries could pave the way for eventual multilateral collaboration. One good example was the summit between France, Syria, and Qatar to discuss the peace process in the Middle East at the beginning of this month. As France holds the current European Union presidency and as Qatar is the current chair of the GCC, this meeting shows the possibility and the necessity of increased diplomatic collaboration concerning security issues between the two parties.
The EU cannot aim to replace the US in the region, neither with regard to its military presence nor in diplomatic means. However, the European economy and security depends on the stability of the GCC countries and the broader Middle East. Therefore, the EU certainly has an interest in improving the regional security situation. EU-GCC cooperation, e.g., with regard to the peace process could be a mean to resolve the disputes that should not be ignored by the EU.
Leonie Holthaus is currently an editorial intern at Atlantic Community. She studies political science at Marburg University and has spent one semester as a visiting student at the American University of Sharjah (UAE).
Related materials from the Atlantic Community:
- Charles Kupchan and Ray Takeyh: Iran Just Won't Stay Isolated
- John Turner: New Silk Road Has Global Significance
- Zaborzka, Casini, Szymanski, Weber: EU Should Provide Shelter to Iraqi Refugees
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