The main purpose of the SCO is reflected in the word “cooperation”, the organization is neither a “block”, nor a “union”, or a “treaty”. Despite the adoption of a temporary moratorium for accepting new member and observer states in 2006, Pakistan, Iran and India applied to become full members of the organization, whereas Belarus, Sri Lanka, Nepal and Afghanistan sought to get on board as observer member states.
The enlargement of the SCO is a very sensitive political issue. India and Pakistan have a single obstacle on the way to a full membership which is the existence of a territorial dispute between the two states. With regard to Iran’s membership, unless the international community ceases accusing Tehran of working on its nuclear program, the state cannot become a member of the SCO. Even if India, Pakistan and Iran do not get a full membership in the organization in the nearest future, the SCO will still be able to build trust in the region.
Meanwhile, all the SCO countries and in part the US and NATO are interested in granting Afghanistan an observer status in the SCO. Current Afghanistan contains a vast amount of threats such as terrorism, extremism and drug-trafficking. Since Afghanistan has already taken part in SCO official meeting and summits, it is merely a question of time when the state will join the organization as a full member. At the same time SCO membership requires the state to undertake certain responsibilities such as a commitment to fight terrorism, separatism and extremism.
The withdrawal of NATO and US troops from Afghanistan will alter the geopolitical situation in the region. If Afghanistan becomes a member of the SCO, Kabul’s relations with NATO, US and Russia might be improved. Subsequently, Moscow might accept the presence of US and NATO military bases in Afghanistan which are expected to remain there after the exit strategy would be accomplished.
The President of Afghanistan Hamid Karzai admitted that the existence of such bases would entail a negative reaction from the neighboring counters such as Iran, Pakistan and China. The question to be asked is whether Russia, China and other SCO members are ready to deploy their forces in Afghanistan after the US leaves the country and how the SCO may secure stability in the state as soon as the latter becomes its member?
The progress that has been reached in Afghanistan as a result of a 10-year military operation is still unstable and reversible. The problems of local authorities in the provinces are not solved, the national army and police forces are still relatively weak and the most part of the country is not under their control. On the other hand, no one besides the US and its NATO allies are considerably capable of affecting the situation and forcefully participating in the conflict management.
Ten years of Soviet presence in Afghanistan followed by the US/NATO military campaign clearly showed that it is impossible to bring stability to this region through exclusively military means. Hence, a strong emphasis should be placed on the economic and socioeconomic development of the state, including economic reconstruction projects in public infrastructure undertaken in a conjunction with international institutions.
According to the argument of Leonid Moiseev, the representative of the President of Russia in the SCO, all SCO member and observer states are ready to work along the Afghan borders, but so far, inside the state these countries could only work individually and predominantly on pure economic issues.
As it was stated in the Astana Declaration of the 10th Anniversary of the SCO, “cooperation in the fields of security and economy and improving the livelihood of citizens remains the long-term priority direction for the Organization”.
It seems that all members are interested in making further cooperation part and parcel of the united vast Eurasian space. For that reason they are likely to unite common interests through building a pan-Eurasian system of gas/oil pipelines and electivity transmission lines as well as through building a transport road “West China - West Europe”.
The second issue is the relations between the SCO and the US. Although the establishment of the SCO in 2001 coincided with the worsening of the strained relations between the US, Russia and China, the organization does not have any anti-American orientation. Washington has its own interests in the region which in part overlap with the ones of China and Russia, namely gaining access to oil and gas resource, securing their supply and fighting terrorism. Nevertheless, both states value the reset of their relations with Washington and are in no need of jeopardizing them,
The United States is not interested in pushing Russia and China together in order to resume their rivalry and make the SCO fall apart. The reason for it is that first and foremost the SCO is bringing stability and economic development to the region which is impoverished and unsafe. Secondly, through cooperation in economic and political fields two great nuclear powers may contain each other in the framework of this regional institution
The importance of the SCO needs to be increased through its enlargement as well as through developing trust and cooperation in security areas. Today the SCO assists in eliminating anarchy and bringing stability to Central Asia, the region which never had any kind of regional institutions that could secure stability and promote economic development at the same time.
Dr. Oleg A. Khlopov is Associate Professor at the Department of World Politics and International Relations of the Russian State University for the Humanities.
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