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March 22, 2011 |  12 comments |  Print | E-Mail Your Opinion  

From Moscow to Cairo

Anna Adeola Makanju: Those who want to see democracy flourish in the Middle East must learn the lessons of the post-communist transition and make civil society engagement and support a priority. While working to address the short term needs of the region, strategies should be in place for a lasting resolution.

The world is riveted as people across the Middle East pour into the streets trying to cast off authoritarian regimes and demand better living conditions. As the United States and its allies develop policies to respond to the evolving upheaval, it’s worth taking a look at what happened the last time a major region of the world shook off the old order and tried to remake itself. Twenty years after the pro-democracy movement swept through Eastern Europe, the results have been decidedly mixed. The reasons for this are complex and varied, but it is clear that civil society is a critical factor in the success and failure of new democracies in the former USSR and its Eastern European neighbors. Those who want to see democracy flourish in the Middle East must learn the lessons of the post-communist transition and make civil society engagement and support a priority.

As a teenager in Russia in the early 1990s, I watched my neighbors take to the streets of (then) Leningrad, filled with a euphoric sense of the possible. The air seemed to literally crackle with excitement and anticipation as hundreds of thousands filled the squares, demanding a future they could shape themselves. Today, most Russians are unlikely to say that their country has ended up in the way they hoped when they took to the streets 20 years ago. As Russia languishes at the bottom of economic freedom and corruption indices, even its president Dmitry Medvedev has acknowledged that Russia’s weak democracy and economy will not improve unless the country’s fledgling civil society plays a greater role in governance.

Russia’s neighbors in Poland have good reason to be far more satisfied with the results of their movement. Secretary of State Hilary Clinton calls their nation “a case study in how a vibrant civil society can produce progress.” Twenty years after it cast off authoritarian rule, Poland boasts a healthy representative democracy and one of the fastest growing economies in Central Europe – thanks in no small part to the tens of thousands of organizations and activists that play a role in the country’s governance – every day.

Civil society organizations are critical to democracy because they serve as fora where citizens can organize around political, economic and social issues outside of direct government control and work to shape the policies that affect them. These organizations serve to counterbalance state power and improve a government’s accountability to its citizens. Assisting nations with strengthening civil society is slow and unglamorous work that requires an in-depth understanding of the historical context and culture of the country. Perhaps this is why such policies were absent from the early US approach to reforming post-communist Russia. Instead, Western policymakers focused on the far more exhilarating – and mostly disastrous – economic “shock therapy”. Without credible public institutions and civil society oversight, these economic reforms were doomed.

While there are important cultural, economic, and geo-political differences that make it difficult, even dangerous, to draw facile comparisons between Eastern Europe’s post-Communist transition and the current turbulence in the Middle East, there are nonetheless important parallels that make Russia’s example instructive. Oil is one critical common factor – numerous studies have shown that oil wealth has a negative correlation to democratization. Another is that, as in Russia, independent civic participation across the Arab world has historically been fairly low. Now that we are seeing an unprecedented level of civic involvement, policymakers should move quickly to harness and sustain the momentum.

In the Middle East, as in Russia, the West lacks two important democratization tools it used during the post-Communist transition – the carrots of EU and NATO membership. The promise of the economic and security benefits of membership were used to coax and coerce Eastern European political leadership into making reforms improving the rule of law, human rights, accountability and transparency. Without these external drivers of democracy, an organized citizenry will have to be the primary driving force behind reforms.

The Obama administration has made civil society involvement a foreign policy priority. The administration has worked to initiate civil society dialogues in a number of countries and has even created a position in the State Department focusing on the issue. The newly-appointed Advisor to the Secretary of State for Civil Society and Emerging Democracies has already launched an ambitious strategic dialogue with civil society – the first strategic dialogue the State Department has held with a group other than a government. It will be critical for the advisor to be on the front lines of the current Middle East involvement.

It is important to recognize the credibility issue Western-led democracy initiatives will face in the Middle East. The West will therefore have to take a careful and culturally sensitive approach to civil society engagement and include a broad range of prodemocracy groups – including religious organizations. This will mean engaging groups that do not perfectly mirror Western values, but engaging only those we agree with is incompatible with democracy-building. To be successful, civil society-building programs cannot be standard-issue, but must be shaped by local realities.

As the unrest continues to grab world headlines, those who support the democratic opposition movements have exhorted authoritarian leaders to step down, called for imposing various sanctions, even suggested providing arms to anti-government rebels. But even as we work to address the immediate needs of the region, we should be developing the strategies that will strengthen the citizens who will have to build and sustain the democratic movement once the world community moves on to the next crisis. Though I no longer live in St. Petersburg, many of my family and friends do. We do not want to look back, twenty years from now, and see the people who are finding their voices across the Arab world today as disillusioned and disempowered as so many of my former neighbors. Careful and consistent engagement and support for civil society organizations that can give voice to the needs and dreams of people across the Middle East will be critical to ensuring we do not have to.

Anna Makanju is a Special Assistant in the Office of the Secretary of Defense for Policy in the United States.  The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense.

 

This article was submitted for the atlantic-community.org's competition: "Empowering Women in International Relations." It coincides with the 10th Anniversary of UN resolution 1325 calling for an increased influence of women in all aspects of peace and security. The contest is sponsored by the U.S. Mission to NATO and the NATO Public Diplomacy Division.

You can read more submissions from the competition here.

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Bernhard  Lucke

March 22, 2011

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An excellent, very important article!!! Thank you very much, I completely agree with it. Nothing to add - only to mention that the credibility issue of the west is in my opinion the most important topic. In many Middle Eastern countries, the west lost much credibility because of the oil and cooperation with autocrats.
 
Jay  C. Warner

March 22, 2011

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I claim to be "on the spectrum" for autism, so I don't, and don't have to, understand "civil society organizations." But I do recognize when they exist and don't exist. Ms. Makanju is absolutely on the mark. A large number of civil society organizations allow for public expression of a wide range of opinions, often apparently conflicting in fundamental ways. The cacophony makes it very difficult for elected people to get a sense of what their electors want and how they should decide on yes/no issues if they care about that collective opinion. But simultaneously, the cacophony avoids dramatic swings of policy and legislation as it (hopefully) guides the entire society closer to the members' vision of better.

As an example, here in Wisconsin the Governor has apparently crossed the line into 'unacceptable changes' territory, with simultaneous dramatic changes in treatment of organized labor, environmental stewardship, regulation of business operations, and governance structure. In the next few months we'll see if the plethora of "civil society organizations" rein him in, or accepts the changes he and his political party cohorts install.
 
Unregistered User

March 22, 2011

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My sister rocks!
 
Unregistered User

March 22, 2011

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Well said Anna, and it's good to know we have someone with your grasp of the issues at hand working on public policy. It will be an incredible challenge for these societies to create meaningful democracies and any lessons the world can gleam from our past endeavors will be critical for success.
 
Joanne F. DeMark

March 22, 2011

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I always prefer a thoughtful plan for what partnering for democracy really means and needs in order to be achieved--relationship, commitment, hard work over time through the myriad of complexities that are present in any region of the world. Civil society organizations will stand a much better chance of building true relationships locally and globally, helping achieve democracy and progress for and with the people. Best not to do short-lived strategies which are not prepared for the long haul of sustaining change, neglect local leadership, and have no plans for enlisting necessary ongoing ad long term support. Well laid out, Anna Makanju.
 
John  Hadjisky

March 23, 2011

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I disagree with the judgement that "economic 'shock therapy'" has been "mostly disastrous". I feel this reflects an overly Russia-centric point of view.

Granted, in countries like Russia, the economic policies proved painful in the short run, and in the long run, unable to foster the sort of high-performance, accountable (to the customers) private enterprises that were hoped for. Meanwhile, in countries like Poland, the short term pain has indeed led to long-term gain; whereas a more gradual approach might have resulted in slower progress, or permitted more of the corrupt and tainted legacy institutions from the Warsaw Pact period to survive. Nor was Poland an isolated example or special case; a number of countries the region and elsewhere have benefited from shock therapy. Perhaps the therapy failed in Russia because it wasn't dramatic enough to dislodge deeply entrenched institutions or cultural practices.

Additionally, even when shock therapy failed, it had unintended, beneficial side effects. The Red Army is a shadow of its former self, and the thermonuclear arsenal is one fifth or one tenth its former size. These things would probably have happened even without shock therapy. But it is thanks to the "failure" of shock therapy that the economy that produced these monsters is no longer capable of re-creating them. That is a good thing.
 
Unregistered User

March 23, 2011

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Well said Adeola,
Ghaddafi, Africa's longest reigning dictator, established a capacity to survive in the face of all odds in the past, he is not the typical dictator, rather, a dictator who sees himself as a revolutionary and a philosopher-king.
Libya provides yet another interesting test case for the people's revolution, but there is only one certain outcome: Ghaddafi's demystification and exit, and a likely post-Ghaddafi "vacuum" that could even be more problematic as the entry point to the change that the people seek
 
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March 23, 2011

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Beautifully articulated and a key driver that is often ignored or under valued / funded / considered. Also a wake up call for our own NGOs and other capacity building programs for civil societies in the Arab world. We have a lot of learning to do in terms of how we 'prescribe' our 'standard issue' programs. This is a great opportunity for us to think outside the box in the way we do outreach, plus, grow our own civil society as we become more diverse, more multi-ethnic.
 
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March 23, 2011

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Excellent article. The comparaison between the Ex-Russian block and the Middle East is very interesting.
The state of the education system of a country must have a big influence too since these civil society organizations are often created and supported by an educated population. Democracy can live if educated choices are made right? I hope to read more from Ms. Makanju soon.
 
Unregistered User

March 24, 2011

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A very relevant article and warning order for policymakers as they seek to learn from past successes and failures.

Addressing Mr. Hadjisky's comment, I would argue that his premise (Poland succeeded because of shock therapy whereas Russia did not) actually supports - rather than negates - Ms. Makanju's argument.

Some foreign policy commentators have argued that drawing parallels between the spread of democracy following the fall of the Soviet Union and the wave of anti-government uprisings in Middle Eastern and North African nations is specious because the two regions have such different histories, cultures, etc. When Mr. Hadjisky points out that 'shock therapy' worked in a country like Poland, he highlights how a population and a nation that has a history of civic activism and democratic governance (albeit punctuated) is better able to weather the turbulence that shock therapy inevitably produces.

In a country like Russia, which had minimal civic activism after the second world war (aside from environmental groups that became de facto umbrella organizations for anyone of a dissident bent in the mid to late 80s) and scant history of democratic governance (you essentially have to go back to the 16th-17th century zemskii sobori), shock therapy's inevitable shockwaves are not absorbed existing civic institutions or dulled by the knowledge/belief that a democratic government is worth the struggle.

I would argue that many of the nations in the Middle East and North Africa, while very different from Central and Eastern European nations generally, are far more similar to Russia than they are to Poland. Therefore, if there is a lesson to be gleaned from the experience of the post-Soviet era (as I would argue there is), I believe that Ms. Makanju's argument in support of civil society development is the most compelling, and it is one that foreign policy makers should heed in the coming weeks and months.
 
Unregistered User

January 30, 2012

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Even with the Arab Spring,The article remains topically relevant.I do not however see the post-USSR as you do.Breaking the communist jinx itself was a major achievement; that they did without looking beyond their economy with a begging bowl !Given the brand of nationalism for which Russians are well known,there is no doubt them getting it right sooner than later.
 
Unregistered User

January 30, 2012

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Even with the Arab Spring,The article remains topically relevant.I do not however see the post-USSR as you do.Breaking the communist jinx itself was a major achievement; that they did without looking beyond their economy with a begging bowl !Given the brand of nationalism for which Russians are well known,there is no doubt them getting it right sooner than later.
Tags: | communism,post-USSR. |
 

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