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September 8, 2009 |  17 comments |  Print | E-Mail Your Opinion  

Topic Germany is ISAF's Weakest Link

Joshua Foust: The Bundeswehr has evolved from refusing to kill known militants to calling in air strikes based on flimsy evidence. The German deployment has been a complete failure. The Bundeswehr is consistently undermining the allied tasks in Afghanistan and should either reevaluate or withdraw.

On November 6, 2007, a group of Afghan militants exploded a bomb at a sugar factory in Baghlan Province while visiting members of the Afghan parliament and a local school were on a tour. Nearly eighty people died, including dozens of children and six parliamentarians, making it one of the deadliest insurgent attacks of the war. Five months later, in March of 2008, the German KSK had located the man they believed responsible for the attack. As they closed in to capture him, his security forces spotted them and the man escaped. While the KSK could have shot and killed the militant commander, they did not—Germany’s rules of engagement did not permit them to do so.

The incident in Baghlan, and Germany’s inability to manage its aftermath, is part of a years-long pattern of mismanagement and confusing command decisions by the German Army in Northern Afghanistan. Responsible for nine provinces, the German Army has faced growing criticism of its refusal to participate in combat over the last few years, and its latest action—calling in an air strike in Kunduz that is reported to have killed dozens or more civilians siphoning fuel from a hijacked truck—has drawn sharp condemnation from the international community.

Some of these incidents boggle the mind. In 2005, for example, a local German unit refused for hours to assist an Alternative Livelihoods crew that had been struck by an IED in Badakhstan Province. Even though some of the men were bleeding out onto the road, it was dusk and therefore deemed too dangerous to mount a rescue operation. After much hectoring from the UN and the U.S. they eventually reached the stricken men.

Since 2006, news from Germany’s provinces—mostly Kunduz and Baghlan—is a seemingly unending series of insurgent attacks, killing off civilians and government officials alike. Even the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, which had languished in obscurity in Waziristan for years after the 2001 invasion, began to make a comeback in Kunduz earlier this year.

Meanwhile, opinion polls suggested many Germans see their Army more as an armed relief organization than a combat force. Many German commentators bragged about the success of the German mission, proclaiming their experience of the model of “armed social work” that could save the country. Of course, while the German Army sat on its bases in the North, the Taliban came back.

The rest of NATO has noticed. At a meeting of NATO parliamentarians in Québec in 2006, both the Canadian and British contingents angrily accused Germany of refusing to do the same heavy lifting they did. While Canada and Britain suffered relatively high losses, Germany suffered relatively little.

Germany has also failed to train the Afghan police. Shortly after the 2001 invasion, Germany took up the task of training and deploying a new police force for Afghanistan. Despite lofty goals to field 80,000 police officers, they only sent 41 trainers. The U.S., frustrated at the lack of progress, has been taking over more of the police mentorship since 2006.

Things seemed to change in July of this year, when the German Ministry of Defense issued new directives that allow the Army to behave pre-emptively. They can actually attack militants before an attack, not only during or after.

Things do not seem to have changed much. Despite the Kunduz air strike—which initial reports indicate was based on some grainy aerial video and a single person insisting the crowd was Taliban—officials in Kunduz are angry that the German Army is not more active in its pursuit of insurgents. While it remains shocking that, within the space of a few months, Germany has evolved from refusing to kill known militants to calling in air strikes based on flimsy evidence, there remains deep frustration from the locals that security continues to worsen.

Germany’s stewardship of the North has been a disaster. They have mismanaged the area, overseen a shocking deterioration in security, and managed to kill dozens of civilians when they chose to become proactive. For too many years, Germany has been failing the people of Afghanistan. If the military won’t start to act like a real Army, it should scale back its commitment in Afghanistan and allow other nations to take responsibility.

Joshua Foust is a military analyst. He blogs about Central Asia at http://www.registan.net/.

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Florian  Broschk

September 8, 2009

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Mr. Fousts criticism of German policy is harsh, somewhat abridged and applies more or less to all of ISAF: The situation worsens and nobody has found the silver-bullet yet (and those who probably understand these kind of missions best insist that there is no silver bullet).
This said, I think this kind of criticism is indeed necessary: the German leadership even refuses to debate strategy more than its lofty "security and reconstruction belong together". With the priority for local commanders on force protection, "security" is normally mistaken for "our security". Once again: this is a problem that affects all of NATO (as Mr. Foust regularily complains).

But while Germany was never able to validate its firm believe, that not the military, but reconstrution will somehow improve the situation (and all that is needed from the forces is mere presence, like on the Balkan), politicians and media alike show a remarkable proness to condemn other approaches. This arrogance can only be explained by mere ideology (in this case mainly pacifism), undisturbed by critical scrutinization or an influx of reality - and exactly this ideology prevents any chances of adapting to the situation.

I am really not sure whether formulations, that the German army does not "act like a real army" or "has to learn to kill" - as it has been put earlier - are truely helpful. In fact, taken somewhat out of context, these slogans may have helped to avoid a sincere debate in the past: the military rightly can point out to many achievements as well as a growing number of firefights and KIAs. On the other hand, in the German public, "real army" and "killing" inevitably invoke pictures of Wehrmacht soldiers gassing jews, hanging partisans and shooting civilians.
However, the Bundeswehr has to change its approach and it needs a wake-up call (the dramatical worsening of the situation will probably not be enough, for it is not felt institutionally). It is (especially the few units leaving the camps) certainly not the drunk, overweight caricature that is so present in british media, but it is an overly centralized, hesitant buraucracy trying to imitate what it did with some success on the Balkan while confused that Afghanistan refuses to be similar.

Probably Nagl's "learning organization" (especially the absence of ideology) would be enough for a performance, which in turn would at least be consistent with ISAF's overall performance. I don't know whether this would be enough to overcome all our strategic difficulties in Afghanistan. But with its concept of Auftragstaktik the Bundeswehr already possesses the necessary tool. If it would only live up to its own doctrine - that is develop sound, constantly re-evaluated strategic guidance while delegating authority to the lowest level possible...
 
Marek  Swierczynski

September 8, 2009

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It is probably the harshest criticism of the German deployment in Afghnistan that I've read on this forum, surely one of the harshest ever published here on any topic, though very interesting, bearing in mind the Author's experience.
But he seems to neglect the broader reality: NATO as a whole isn't coherent about the ISAF mission and has probably bitten more than in can chew. The recent Kunduz air strike was more linked to psychology, less to warfare. It was a retaliatory move, made by helpless commanders who probably felt they have to do something rather than allow the Taleban to steal their fuel.
If they left these tankers in hands of the Afghan mob, every fuel convoy would be in great danger. Sometimes even ISAF commanders may show human feelings like anger, revenge or hatred.
The real problem is that NATO has failed to convince its own member states that it is fighting a "just war" there. Hence, some countries put national caveats and some refuse to put all their weight behind the mission in which they do not really trust. I do not think that someone else is quite ready now to offer more than 4000 troops to replace the Germans, should they withdraw.
So maybe it's time for the whole NATO to re-think, re-define, re-group and finally reduce the mission to what is achievable.
 
Unregistered User

September 8, 2009

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You seem to ignore that the Germans had begun to step up to the plate lately on the ground, with use of IFV in combat (Marder shooting at insurgentes) and, more importantly, change of ROE. See http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,637646,00.html

Yes, just before the elections, the German government wanted to avoid German casualties at almost any cost - but I think we will see a much more proactive Bundeswehr after the elections, if this event doesn't cost CDU + FDP to much at the polls.
 
Andrey  Chubyk

September 8, 2009

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I think, we don't have any right for condemning commanders of German contingent in Afghanistan, that they deal not enough "military". Actually the main goal of ISAF is to show better life style for native population and not to kill Taliban militants, because they are mostly the Afghans. Another think is of course, what they (ISAF) do really, if it is progress in civil society life or not.
One of the most important obstacles in the NATO is the lack of strategy. It is just in the work and seems to take several months even not years. So, it could be more successful only after clear strategy of NATO future and especially of the EU place in this structure.
 
Bernhard  Lucke

September 8, 2009

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I would like to really thank Joshua Foust for this very revealing comment. The recent events in Afghanistan make clear that the ISAF is fighting a war there, and not conducting a "peacekeeping" mission. The Bundeswehr deployment is violating the German constitution. Probably this airstrike-event is just the tip of a mountain of incidents which are not reported, or summarised as the notorious "collateral damage" of the ISAF actions on the ground. So it is fortunate that this impressive airstrike made its way into the news.

What it also shows is how unwise it is to conduct a half-hearted military deployment which is based on a failed (or non-existent) strategy. Perhaps the international reactions to the airstrike will lead even conservative German politicians to re-think the engagement of the Bundeswehr. The only reward Germany can earn in Afghanistan is a kick in the ass, be it from its allies for losing another unwinnable war, or by Afghan rebels for mixing reconstruction with occupation. As well, the ongoing war will probably make international terrorism worse, not better. At least I can't see any improvement of the international security situation since the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. The trend clearly shows the opposite.

Nearly one year ago I assumed that increasing the military manpower and actions will make things worse, not better (http://www.atlantic-community.org/index/Open_Think_Tank_Article/Win...). I really wonder why Afghanistan is so often compared with Vietnam: NATO is actually getting its Afghanistan there, as did the Russian just 20 years ago. That comparison really fits, and if we have a closer look, we can see that NATO is quite exactly repeating the Soviet mistakes.

If the Americans around Joshua Foust think they can do it better, go ahead! Withdrawing the Bundeswehr is fine with me. I see no point of staying there since Afghans evidently don't want us.
 
Joshua  Foust

September 9, 2009

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Thank you, everyone for commenting. I think all of us can agree that the lack of a coherent strategy from ISAF as a whole has been detrimental to the war effort; however, I don't think you can apply criticism equally, as many of the commenters here seem to want. Rather, the Brits, Dutch, Australians, and Canadians have all made pretty substantial contributions in terms of both combat and reconstruction work, and don't deserve, I think, to be painted with the same brush used to condemn the Germans' efforts.

One thing, and Florian is right to point this out, is that the list above of Germany's activities in Kunduz is abridged (there is a word count, after all). The problem of Germany inactivity has lasted for many years. In 2004, Nathan Hodge, writing in Slate Magazine, expressed confusion at Germany's refusal to protect local aid workers during rioting in Badakhshan in 2004—the German commander at the time said his job was to assist the Afghans, not do their job for them.

But if there are no Afghans yet, what then? During the most recent airstrike, the Germany commander didn't even pretend to coordinate his actions with the local governor or Afghan security contingent. It would be unfair to blame him alone for that, since many ISAF units don't interact very well with the Afghans (including many American units). But when you then look at the reaction of the governor after the strike, you see something remarkable: his anger is not that 125 looters got killed, but that Germany isn't active enough in securing the areas around Kunduz.

That is critical: the Afghan government itself is frustrated and exasperated at Germany's years of refusal to perform basic peacekeeping duties in the areas—all while insurgent activity has gotten worse and worse (to clarify a minor point for Marek, fuel tankers are hijacked routinely near Kunduz—these tankers got taken less than 10km from the German base, because the Germans did nothing to deter such activity before this past weekend).

While I can't speak to the constitutionality of the Bundeswehr's deployment, I can say, to go with Positroll's comment, that if the new rules of engagement—which have barely been put into place—actually do bring about meaningful change, then much of this conversation will be moot (except for the question of why it was allowed to get this bad). Better rules of German engagement, combined with a coherent national strategy coming out of ISAF, might actually have a realistic chance of affecting some kind of permanent security gains. But we won't know until it happens, and even in the U.S. people are getting fed up with all the delays and missteps, so who knows what will happen.
 
Joshua  Foust

September 9, 2009

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Hrm. So the link to the Nathan Hodge piece is in there, under "confused," but here it is anyway in case anyone would like to read it.

http://www.slate.com/id/2107629/entry/2107636/
 
Unregistered User

September 9, 2009

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Mr. Foust's definition of " weakest link" is " refusing to kill" and ordering airstrikes based on
" flimsy information", even when this information is transmitted from B-1B bombers and from two F-15 Strike- Jets.
Killing militants in a war fighting insurgents and rebels will have with almost certainty collateral damage,-- always.
I was 2.30 am at night, when the German Commander asked for assistance.
The two Strike Jets responded within two minutes, offering two 2000lbs bombs, while the German Commander settled for two 500lbs bombs. So much for that.------
The Taliban by hijacking two loaded fuel tankers had two options in mind,
a) to move the two tankers into territory of the German Operations Command and blow them up, or
b) to challenge German Command, which became increasingly attacked by rebels, to
blow up the tankers , outside the village, with the intensions to split US and Nato
forces and with certainty for 4200 German Soldiers to be blamed for a impotent warfare.
The "Washinton Post" was quite conclusive in its judgement.-------
Perhaps it would help to learn about a special relationship between Germany and Afghanistan:
Under Zahir Shah and his Uncles (1933-53), especially under the Musahiban Brother, Muhammad Hasim, internal objectives were focused on improving the army and developing the economy ( including transport and communications). Both goals however,
required external assistance. Seeking to avoid involvement with the Soviet Union and Britain, they turned to a far-off nation that had both the interst and the technical expertise
required-Germany. Already by 1935 the Afghan Government had invited German experts and businessmen to help set up factories and build hydroelectric projects. No other country did achieve Germany's level of prominence in Afghanstan's foreign relations.
By the beginning of the 1940s Germany was Afghanistan's most important foreign friend.

The German Commander made the right decision, collateral damage is always unfortunate.

The Question to be answered is quite simple:
Why are we fighting in Afghanistan such a war and why is there a Taliban
or in broder context, why is there a Osama Bin Laden et al.
The Germans certainly had nothing to do with that.

HRF


Tags: | athens/afghanistan |
 
Brian  McCarthy

September 9, 2009

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The use of the word " War " in Afghanistan is incredibly misleading. In a war, opposing armies try to gain the upper hand by killing or taking the enemy soldiers out of the situation and keeping them prisoners until the end of hostilities.
What occurred in Afghanistan is that a foreign army took up occupation of the state with the connivance of one of the many tribal chiefs who was, in time-honoured fashion, appointed as president of the country by the power of same invading army.
The reason for the invasion is quite simplistic - to extract maximum revenge on a bunch of thugs calling themselves Al Qaida who carried out an atrocity in the USA and who are hiding out in the mountains.
To cloak this piece of imperialist lash-back in claims that the invasion is to bring democracy by force to the Afghan people, is simply not credible and is drawing more and more recruits to join the rag-tag forces trying to oust the invaders. Of course this will lead to great numbers of citizens being swept up in the swirling conflict with their lives completely disrupted by the actions on both sides of the conflict.
In a war, the end is determined by the defeat of one of the opposing armies. Even in a civil war, while mostly not in uniform, the opposing sides are clearly identified and thus victory or defeat can be clearly established and hostilities ended.
In the Afghan situation, there is an occupying army facing a totally indeterminate "enemy" who may spend some of their time in neighbouring Pakistan and at other times, mingle with non-combatants in towns and cities. It is the occupying army which determines who is and is not a combatant so there is no official or logical way of estimating when this invasion will end. The United States has inveigled NATO to enter into this adventure by announcing that it is a "WAR ON TERROR" to be fought by standard armies. Thus, it is not surprising that some of the soldiers from NATO armies have difficulty in understanding role they are being asked to play.
Some clarity is necessary before blind recriminations are meted out by gung-ho militarists
 
Tatu  Liviu

September 9, 2009

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Interesting article Mr Foust,
well it is much to say about NATO's mission in Afghanistan and Germany's role within this mission, if it will be a success or it will fail.It is a hard question to answer it!
It is clear right now for many of us that ISAF is the turnesol paper test for NATO!
I do not think that NATO could win a counterinsurgency mission without a complete political and military reform of the Organization.
So far we have seen an interesting comedy, from Riga Summit and beyond (Bucharest and Kehl/Strasbourg), this is not enough, group photos, declarations and many documents signed and what we have today - same NATO facing real problems in Afghanistan and certain problems regarding military cooperation on the field!
Does NATO leaders know that Cold War ended?
Will Afghanistan anounce the end of NATO or it will reform it?
 
Marek  Swierczynski

September 9, 2009

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@Brian,
True, it's not a war in traditional terms. Military pundits tend to call it assymetric conflict, but this assymetry relates to methods of fighting and does not help much in defining the enemy. The problem is that as the situation in Afghan theatre deteriorated the term "war" replaces other terms, like mission, operation or deployment - just because it's clearer and stronger for the wide public. Especially in those contributing countries that know little or nothing at all about the region they send troops to. Only yesterday I was laughing to my tears listening to a debate on public radio where MP's were debating whether it is still a peace-keeping operation or an outright war. I'll just repeat here that the time has come for NATO to redesign ISAF, get rid of the Salvation Army clothing and focus on anti-terrorist operations. Others, including the UN, EU and whatever Asian body joins in, should focus on limited assistance in fields like education, health-care, infrastructure. And let's the Afghan tribes decide what they want for their land (as there is no such thing like Afghanistan).
Tags: | war | operation | mission |
 
Péter  Marton

September 10, 2009

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@ Marek,

As to the absurdity of still debating whether it is peace-keeping or not, we fully agree. I have an op-ed coming up here (waiting in the queue since yesterday) which makes the case for just this, besides other things. I am actually surprised - though I really don't have problems believing this - that in Poland this debate is still on as much as you're saying. After incidents like the one in Nangar Khel, or having troops in Ghazni... it's odd that some of this reality doesn't alter the debate sufficiently from what is seen elsewhere, in some of those countries that still have, by the looks of things, a bit more of a reason to continue believing that their army is involved mainly in Salvation Army kind of work. Could you give us a sense of how the discourse is shaping up in Poland nowadays? What arguments are typically used?
Tags: | Poland | war | peacekeeping |
 
Donald  Stadler

September 10, 2009

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I am generally quite uncomfortable with the title of this opinion piece for two reasons. It refers to a popular TV program "The Weakest Link", in which after a round of questions the panel 'votes off' the weakest member. This is not a useful metaphor to use in analyzing either NATO or the IASF mission, I think.

Perhaps the IASF mission may develop with the 'weakest' members withdrawing first, but by that measure Germany is unlikely to be the one who leaves first. It will be smaller national contingents first, I think.

As for NATO breakdown either de facto or dejure? I think it's very likely the "strongest Link(s)" would be the ones leaving first, not Germany, because the cost-benefit tradeoff is far less advantageous for those members than for Germany. Put it this way: Staying in NATO till the bitter end is decidedly in the German national interest. Whether it is in the national interest of the US, UK, or Canada is a far more balanced question....

So, 'Weakest Link' - this is not.
 
Moon of Alabama

September 10, 2009

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So let me get this straight.

For years Germany kept the north, nearly a third of Afghanistan, relativly quiet.

For years the US OEF mission steered up trouble in the south.

For years the U.S. and others in the south did not manage to keep the insurgents down. Instead they let the insurgency grew right under their watchful eyes. Supported it with OEF bombing of this or that wedding etc. Then, eventually, the insurgents metastasized into the north.

And that is by Foust's soapbox opinion the very guilt of the Germans???

Dear Mr. Foust:

YOUR troops screwed up in the south and that is the very reason that there is now trouble in the north too.

It took YOUR troops years to recognize that brute force is not the way to go and that low violence COIN may be the more more efficient. Just like the Germans said and practiced all along.

YOU screwed up you have the chutzpah to but you blame the Germans.

Pitfull





 
Unregistered User

September 10, 2009

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My apology in advance, but the Colonel Klein incident and the investigative judgement
thereof just illustrates the incompetence of the NATO organization.
First to the German Officier at NATO, who so"knowledgeably" stated, that it is "crystal clear"
Colonel Klein " did not respect decision making procedures " , should not be allowed to
wear a uniform.
To the Afghan Foreign Minister, Rangin Spanta, with respect for defending Colonel Klein and his men and women in uniform.
To the American pilots of the F-15 Strike Jets, job well done.---------

The initial NATO review of the incident states, that Colonel Klein oiverstepped his authority and misjudged the situation.
The situation, as reported:
Taliban seized two loaded NATO fuel trucks--- fearing to be used as truckbombs against
ISAF International Forces or their installations.
However the ISAF troops were not in imminent danger, as the vehicles gotten stuck in mud at a local river crossing (and the trucks were closely monitored from aircrafts above). Further NATO allows only "close air support " when troops on the ground are engaged in fighting.----------

Should the Colonel have challenged the Taliban to a fight to recapture the fuel trucks
--- and call in close air support?
The Taliban based on their tactics would have blown up one, while emptying the other
into the river,-- nice impressive fire works.
Should the trucks have been attacked while traveling through the village?
Should the Colonel have waited until the trucks were at the gates of his base?
It was a one time chance and no time to waist, it was a non moving target for which the American pilots were well trained. It was also a costly lesson for the Taliban.

The Colonel made the right decision for the Taliban to remember.

HRF






Tags: | Afghanistan |
 
Florian  Broschk

September 13, 2009

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The fuel-tanker incident, as well as other incidents described, should serve as a reminder of a systemic failure with the German deployment: it did not have a situation like the one it confronts now in mind from the start and never adapted. Although I don't see the German mission as a "disaster" on the tactical level - surely not when compared to the overall ISAF-performance - the mission as a whole has suffered from the missing strategic framework.

That is not to say that no such framework exists, only that it doesn't fit to the realities: in 2001/02, the German troops mission was to deter warlords from overthrewing president Karzai and prevent ethnic violence. This was something the Bundeswehr knew from the Balkan - and nothing more than deterrence, based on presence was needed. Unfortunately, deterrence based on presence doesn't pay off against a grass-roots movement which mobilizes against a perceived occupation by infidel foreigners.

Logical in the Balkan-type stability mission but unforgivable in present-day Afghanistan, the Bundeswehr has no true concept to translate its presence into security. Always in the defense against pacifists and humanitarians, in the Bundeswehr's worldview, security and stability will be achieved by reconstruction measures, while occasional patroling demonstrates the benevolent soldiers' commitment and benign intentions. Of cause this leaves the Bundeswehr with little responsibility for a deteriorating security situation. This has led to the establishment of the "liberated zone" of nearly complete Taliban-control in Chehar Darra. These zones of cause exists all over the country - as does the pre-occupation with own security instead of operational success.

However, the degree of German anxiety compared to other Nations can rightly be described as a "cultural conflict", as it is at http://weblog-sicherheitspolitik.info/2009/09/07/kunduz-vorfall-kul... in the situation described, COL Klein and GEN McChrystal both know, that it is dangerous to visit the site - and indeed, 10 minutes after they leave mortar grenates are fired. Interestingly, both sides feel confirmed: the Germans (in this case MoD spokesman Raabe) because SOME risk existed, while the Americans feel annoyed, because SOME risk always exists - and hey, that's why we are here.

In this "cultural" context, the decision to engage tankers out of fear, they could possibly attack the camp makes complete sense (even when you knew about lots of civilians present): the tankers pose SOME risk. This mindset of cause must be overcome in order to achieve operational success. But it will not, as long as Germany firmly believes, that its forces are in the Balkan, deter war-lords and prevent ethnic violence while the security-situation will improve through reconstruction measures (someday, somehow).

From an overall point of view, it does make sense to question the German mission in Afghanistan (with many, many of the 4000+ soldiers busy creating, editing and receiving power point presentations in Mazar-e Sharif). Not because they are tactically inept but because their missing strategy regularly precludes a mindset that would value operational success over own security.

 
Donald  Stadler

September 13, 2009

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Good points, Herr Florian

"security and stability will be achieved by reconstruction measures while occasional patroling demonstrates the benevolent soldiers' commitment and benign intentions. Of cause this leaves the Bundeswehr with little responsibility for a deteriorating security situation."

I think the response of the local leaders was revealing. They are angry with the Germans - but not because 'innocent' civilians were killed. No, the anger is because the Germans have failed to maintain security in their areas.

This reminds me of certain incidents during Vietnam. At one point the Americans adopted a strategy of peaceful buildup. American units would go into a hamlet and provide vaccinations and basic healthcare.

Unfortunately they did not make the hamlets secure, so the Vietcong would also visit the hamlets afterward, kill the hamlet leaders who had been friendly with the Americans, and in at least one notorious case the 'People's' insurgency was reported to have lopped off all affected limbs of the people vaccinated by the Americans.

The lesson here is that security comes first. This is why the locals defended Col Klein, because he actually acted against the Talibanis who stole the fuel trucks. Both the leaders and Col Klein were correct in this case. Let us hope that the Germans continue to act as he did.
 

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