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Bosnia’s fragile decade and a half-long period of peaceful co-existence seems to be gradually coming unstuck as a result of internal disagreements over the future political arrangements in this former war-torn state. The disagreements relate to the so-called Butmir Process, which was inaugurated in the autumn of 2009. This process aims to develop new constitutional reforms which would eventually lead to the creation of more centralised institutional structures. In the longer term, these measures would presumably result in the formulation of a probable Bosnian unitary state, overcoming the divisions imposed by the Dayton Peace Accords in 1995 and preparing the country for eventual EU and NATO membership. This has produced a mixed response from the various ethnic groupings. The Bosnian Muslims, or Bosniaks, have always been supportive of these objectives ever since the birth of the Bosnian state in 1992. Dr. Haris Silajdzic, the current Bosnian Muslim representative on the tri-partite presidency, has been calling for the formal ending of the two entities in Bosnia since 2007. The Bosnian Serbs, however, are opposed to such undertakings, with Milorad Dodik, the Prime Minister of the Bosnian Serb Republic, threatening to call a referendum on the complete independence of this entity from Sarajevo. This could result in the resumption of underlying tensions which could turn violent.

The international community clearly has to take some of the blame for these current pronouncements. For the most part, international organisations involved in the stabilisation of post-conflict Bosnia have adopted an a la carte approach to addressing the thorny issue of Bosnia’s future political status. The Ashdown era saw considerable efforts to reform Bosnia’s defence establishments as a precursor to the country’s political structures. Since Lord Ashdown’s departure in 2006, there has been no successful attempt to add to these achievements.

The current political crisis is certainly not helped by the re-opening of old wounds. The ongoing trial of Dr. Radovan Karadzic in The Hague and the arrest of Dr. Ejup Ganic at London’s Heathrow Airport in March 2010 are leading to an exacerbation of already-strained ethnic relations in Bosnia. Equally, the early release of Dr. Biljana Plavsic in October 2009 was met with stiff opposition in the Muslim Croat Federation. On the day Dr. Plavsic was officially released, Sarajevo University stripped her of her doctorate. So what path should the international community now navigate? Clearly, the issue of Bosnia needs to feature more prominently on the transatlantic agenda. This is of course difficult due to the involvement of NATO member states and partner countries in the current ISAF mission in Afghanistan. While this is the case, a collective effort on the part of the European and North American allies would resolve any underlying problems in the short to medium term. The strong partnership between the EU and NATO in Bosnia needs to be further enhanced with preliminary plans to deal with any hypothetical outbreak of hostilities in Bosnia. While this is a slim possibility, one has to be prepared for such an eventuality. The US also needs to support the EU in any of their own diplomatic initiatives. This will put additional pressure on the parties. The continued commitment of the Alliance to Bosnia was shown at the start of 2010 by an official visit of the NATO Secretary-General and North Atlantic Council to Sarajevo. The new NATO that emerged after the collapse of communism evolved as a result of its experiences in the Western Balkans. It is now time to craft new policies to reflect the successes of the 1990s and deal effectively with any threats that may emerge in south-eastern Europe in the coming years.

Niall Mulchinock is a PhD candidate in the Government Department at University College Cork, Ireland.

Related Material From Atlantic Community

• Joschka Fischer: The EU Should Not Ignore Serbia
• Memo 18: EU and Turkey to Mediate Balkan Tensions
• Daniel Korski: Solving Europe's Bosnia Crisis