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September 26, 2008 |  21 comments |  Print | E-Mail Your Opinion  

From the Editorial Team

HOT ISSUE:
How to Respond to the Financial Crisis?

From the Editorial Team: The current financial crisis has sent economists, politicians, and citizens alike scrambling to find solutions. In the US and Europe, expert opinion is divided on how to revamp the economy. How should the United States, the EU, the private sector, and others respond to this international situation?

The current financial crisis has not only traumatized the financial system in the United States but has sent shockwaves across the globe.

Furthermore, the financial crisis has given rise to a new bout of "transatlantic sniping," according to the New York Times. German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrück stated yesterday that "the financial market crisis is above all an American problem," and "the US will lose its status as the superpower of the world financial system." European banks and sovereign wealth funds will have an increased role in a multipolar financial world.

Despite tensions, transatlantic discussion will remain an important part of the story, and the need for international cooperation is now undeniable in the face of the current crisis.

The Issues:
Clear and specific policies will be needed to solve the problems. Here are some expert opinions concerning the broad issues facing policy makers today:

1. Should the US Secretary of the Treasury Paulson have broad authority?

  • Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington, argues that to put $700 billion into the hands of Henry Paulson is a mistake. He says that Paulson is "a guy who totally missed this [the financial crisis], and has been wrong about almost everything."
  • Carsten Meier of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) notes that such a package would effectively let those responsible for the crisis "off the hook." Furthermore, Meier argues that by doing so, the US government is hindering the financial reforms truly needed.
  • William H. Gross, the chief investment officer of the investment fund PIMCO, is more optimistic: Because assets will be sold at bargain prices, the Treasury (and anyone else who decides to get onboard) could eventually reap a 10 to 15 percent yield after all is said and done.

2. Should the EU contribute to a rescue package?

  • European economic experts, such as Stefan Kooths of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) and Diemo Dietrich from the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), argue that Europe should not have to bear the burden of America's poor economic choices. As the US government calls on European countries to help in the Wall Street rescue package, experts seem to agree that this is a flawed course, sending the wrong signal to those who caused the crisis in the first place.
  • Like several other governments, Germany has now refused to chip into Paulson's $700 billion plan to salvage several institutions.
  • John Bruton, the EU ambassador to the US, disagrees: "The main goal in present circumstances should be to spread the cost as widely and as thinly as possible. In that way, costs can be absorbed and panic avoided. Other countries, apart from the US, may also have to take a hand in the work."

3. How to reform financial regulation reform to prevent future crises?

  • Adam Posen notes that while deregulation might have gone too far, that was not the only problem: regulators were not enforcing the regulations that were already in place. The global nature of today's market calls for global financial standards. Posen admits, however, that it is not yet clear how to accomplish such a task and, like Steinbrück recently claimed, the US position to help coordinate and set global standards has been notably weakened.
  • Jeffrey Garten, former US Undersecretary of Commerce for International Trade and professor at the Yale School of Management, is calling for the formation of a Global Monetary Authority. He contends that the "current global institutional apparatus is woefully incapable of overseeing the financial system that is evolving."

Dear members of atlantic-community.org,

These are just some of the questions facing policy makers today. Others include: Is the Paulson plan an effective response to the financial crisis in the US? How large a role should governments play in the private sector? Should the world devise more regulatory standards, and if so, how? To what degree can greater transparency and regulation prevent another crisis? Has the US truly lost its status as the global financial leader? Is this the dawn of global financial multipolarity?

We encourage you to publish and comment on this pressing, transatlantic issue.

The floor, as always, is yours.

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Tags: | financial crisis | US | EU | Germany | Merkel | Paulson | bailouts |
 
Comments
Unregistered User

September 27, 2008

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Ancient Europe men said Happy is the man who knows the cause of things. Jean-Baptiste Lamarck concept: Le pouvoir de la vie The complexifying force. We become or create more complex things as we evolve forward. Our global economy certainly fits into this concept.

We embrace global economics with a plan to outsource jobs to China and India and replace those jobs with next level or new technology jobs. We follow the first part of the plan (outsourcing jobs) fully, and then only partially follow the second part of the plan (Create new technology jobs).

Please see www.engfuture.com for The rest of the second part of the plan.
Namely: Expanding into new areas of technology where we already have a super foundation ready to advance and at the same time already have and interest and a need to expand into these areas. Something extreme is needed. Why? Because according to the Federal Reserve Bank: Half the money in the USA changes hands each day under normal business or economic situations. Obviously people without jobs cannot exchange money so the machine slows or stops due to some missing gears as we are now experiencing.

In many ways Europe has created the modern economics both by promoting international shipping and trade long ago, and more recently by inventing modern machinery and electronics (radios, telephones and computers). Need I also mention that Europe also invented Honest business practices even to the point of a Handshake with ones word as binding. Certainly there is room for modifying plans along the way, yet every plan must be followed through with or a new plan made.

Question: Is paying off institutions just chasing the Effects and not dealing with the cause which is not enough jobs? Would we be better off using the money to fund some super projects or ignore the cause and have this same situation re-occur in another 1 to 4 years?
 
Unregistered User

September 27, 2008

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Successful leadership requires that we select managers and executives that have one or more of the following in the job related specialty:
• Education
• Experience
• Understanding
• Research
• Genius

The USA proven method for promotion around this logic is to claim persecution based on Gender, Race or Religion. This has lead to having incompetent leaders in charge. It is good to help underprivileged people. However, with the global economy at stake, we should be more cautious of how we promote individuals to Government and Industry leadership jobs.

One possible solution based on German Theorist Prof. Peter Todd concept that humans have a cognitive reasoning adaptive tool box is to improve our education system to help us adapt to an advancing civilization. Following is our education system up to PhD followed by my suggested new levels of college education beyond PhD.

Evolution of Education based on technology advancements requiring more education as we evolve.
1. Learn same craft from parents. Farming, weaving, metal smith, cooking.
2. Grade school 1-6th. Basic math, reading writing.
3. Middle school 7-8th. Math, science, wood/metal working.
4. High school 9-10th. Geology, Biology, Analytics, Electronics.
5. College 11-14th. Advanced concepts Math, Science, Economics, Engineering, and Medical.
6. University 15th plus. Advanced specialty Masters, PhD. Doctors, Theorists.
7. Mensa College. Advanced problem solving, team work, cross cultural communications.
8. Evolution College. Advanced studies in Human civilizations from ancient to modern to fully understand where we have been, where we are now and where we are going. Study Concepts. Do not memorize times and dates.
9. Ocean living College. Marine biology, navigation, weather, maintenance of ships and submarines.
10. Futurist College. Advanced planning for the future of human civilization, understanding the future so we can better prepare for it.
11. GeoEngineering College. Earth geology and ecology and how to preserve nature to support life.
12. Super Economics College. Super projects involving multiple countries, historic evolution of economic concepts.
13. Space College. Study space travel, living and maintenance of space craft and life support systems.
14. Colonization College. Learn how to colonize another planet and maintain and grow a small colony to many cities.
15. Logistics College. Logistics concepts for short, medium and long range transportation of supplies for off world colonies.
16. EcoIntegration College. Ecology concepts to integrate humans with each new planet ecology. Farming, Veterinary, Recycling on other planets.
17. Child Education College. Evolution of education techniques that are fun and efficiently prepare youngsters for a wide range of possible jobs.
18. Parenting Education College. Parents have the potential to be the greatest benefit to growing and learning children (outside of school). Studying child friendly parenting techniques that best prepare children for living in a constantly advancing civilization.

Each new level of education will fulfill a need that we have advanced to and cannot proceed without. We are already at a level where 27% of high tech jobs are not filled due to our education system has not kept up with our advancing industries. Please keep in mind that many jobs are both physical and mental so physical exercise programs must be maintained throughout each level of mental education to prepare us meet the physical challenges.
 
Member deleted

September 27, 2008

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Let us look at it this way: You can put about a million US dollars in my bank, without any conditions or strings attached and things should improve immediately.

Alternatively, what caused them? This issue is serious and may make one go purple in the face. Ants bringing an elephant down - kind of problematique or locusts damaging good healthy crop? They may be more correct analogies, with global rivalry, parapsychological factors (they exist), and the newer developements that certain tendencies suddenly seem to exhibit - at international forums as well as elsewhere.

Inter-dependence and what does that inter-dependence entail - provide answers that may not be so beautiful though they may be eloquent. Competing ideologies that have consumed and sub-sumed the human into it - as a nasty-beast-come-to-life - and exhibiting morbidities of thought unknown and/or unparalleled (within that consumption and subsumation and its self-awareness) can often lead to many crises. I lend you ten dollars for a weekend, in a campus life. You agree to return it to me by the next week-end. I need that ten dollars to purchase a new ink-cartridge for my printer. You have someone who was supposed to have paid you twenty dollars before the next weekend! He did not. You could not, thus repay me. I could not thus purchase my new ink-cartridge for my printer and my paper got delayed by nearly a month. Suzy, on the dance floor, needed that paper to get a promotion and secure an important business deal. She could not do that because of the delay. Happens!

What if the person who was supposed to pay you twenty dollars, knew of the business deal Suzy had to finish, based upon my paper? Or someone else did and who prevented the other person from paying you that twenty dollars. Happens but it is not a done thing! For you and me. Suzy's firm had a crises and she perhaps also got fired!

So we get back to certain competition somewhere - though the locust theory may be a more probable and apt description!
 
Donald  Stadler

September 28, 2008

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Gentlepeople, this is a crisis. It is a global crisis. Many Europeans like to believe that it originated in the US and can be confined there, but neither assumption is true.

One of the dominoes which made the world financial crisis possible were "intricate financial contracts known as credit derivatives, which insure debt holders against default". The following link is from the NY Times (HT PrariePundit):

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/28/business/28melt.html?_r=1&hp=&adx...

These derivatives originated from a small unit of AIG (the huge insurer whom the US treasury bailed out last week, that unit being located in - London. Europe:

"In the case of A.I.G., the virus exploded from a freewheeling little 377-person unit in London, and flourished in a climate of opulent pay, lax oversight and blind faith in financial risk models. It nearly decimated one of the world’s most admired companies, a seemingly sturdy insurer with a trillion-dollar balance sheet, 116,000 employees and operations in 130 countries."

"These insurance products were known as “credit default swaps,” or C.D.S.’s in Wall Street argot, and the London unit used them to turn itself into a cash register."

"Mr. Cassano and his colleagues minted tidy fortunes during these high-cotton years. Since 2001, compensation at the small unit ranged from $423 million to $616 million each year, according to corporate filings. That meant that on average each person in the unit made more than $1 million a year."

Right. So at least one part of all this originated in Europe. This seems to have been the critical piece. Europe. The i-bankers lived in Europe, took their bonuses in Europe, spent them and banked them in Europe.

But this European unit cannot be blamed for the whole thing of course. Blame must attach to those who bought these evil European insurances. Nobody was forced to, noblody did the due diligence. Many banks in the US bought the funny insurance and have to take their share of the blame.

But so did many in Europe. Europe created the crisis and helped fuel, Europe must necessarily take responsibility for resolving it.

Unlike many europeans I don't try to assert that one nation or group of nations must fix the entire system. The US must do it's part; but so must Europe.


 
Patrick  Edwin Moran

September 28, 2008

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On one extreme the people of this world have the promise of living in a society that has as its objective the optimization of opportunities. "If you live in our community, you live in one where we band together to see that nobody takes unfair advantage of you. We know we cannot be a healthy community if even one community member has tuberculosis. We know we cannot be a strong and united community if even one community member is enslaved to another." You get the idea, no?

On the other extreme the world faces amoral transnational organizations. Some sell narcotics, some sell medicine, some sell arms, and some sell water. The objectives of many of them are similar -- power for the group members with no regard to those from whom their wealth is harvested. Their members may have mansions here or there, but the more powerful they are the less they are tied to them.

Zhuang Zi observed, a very long time ago, that not even horses are naturally inclined to put saddles on their own backs, and that there is nothing in nature that says that humans must of their own free will submit themselves to others. That people submit to others is due to the use of brute force but also due to sophists who convince people by false reasoning that the have an obligation to do so or that they may derive some benefit by doing so. Organized religions and certain ideologies are a big part of this picture.

We in the U.S. are told that it is not "life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness," but the pursuit of wealth that is the God-given right of all, and a right that may not be subordinated to any other. There is petty larceny, grand larceny, and, at an even higher level, powerful men dominating the commons (or establishment bruins raiding the honey that stingless bees have stored in hollow trees).

Once it became possible to accumulate wealth, those who had it tended strongly to retain it and gather even more to themselves. They make the laws that protect their "right" to rake off all they can from the labor of others. There is no law of God or nature that prevents them from doing so. There is only the power of organized communities to say what they, as communities, will permit within their own boundaries. Good leaders for these communities are hard to find and hard to keep.

There is something that has risen to the top of the crock. It may not be cream, but it assuredly has managed to put a few lifetime's incomes aside in some hidey hole for each member of this coven.
 
Unregistered User

September 30, 2008

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"Right. So at least one part of all this originated in Europe. This seems to have been the critical piece. Europe. The i-bankers lived in Europe, took their bonuses in Europe, spent them and banked them in Europe."

Don, that''s not are saying your reps fellows, it's the dems' fault

and there isn't any medic , apart letting the insolvents going down :

http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=OTBhYWJkYTg3OWM3NGMzODNiOD...

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=8634
 
Donald  Stadler

September 30, 2008

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Marie Claude, the blame for the banking crisis has been laid on the US. That is wrong.

It is not my attempt to lay the blame on Europe for what is a global crisis, but merely to point out the obvious: That this is a global crisis, it's causes are global, it's pain is global, and any solution(s) must be global. Blaming the US and insisting that the US pay for the dirty portfolios of European banks will not work - no matter how diligently Europeans work to blame the US. Even if you succeed - will blame save your banks?

I have looked further into this crisis since last week, and some interesting facts appear to be coming out. European banks appear to be in deeper crisis than those in the US, because European banks seem to be much more highly-leveraged than their American counterparts. I hear that the typical European leverage is 40-1 (that is 40 euros of assets to 1 euro of capital) while I-banks in the US are leveraged about 20-25 to one and US commercial banks about 10-1. This seems to be reflected in the cost of funds - the spread between the yield of government securities and bank-issued securities is at a record high both in the US and in Europe, but the actual spread in Europe is more than double the spread in the US. Also, the euro plunged today against the dollar.

Conclusion: the crisis is now much worse in Europe than in the US even though it came later.

I think that much of Europe has awaited the passage of the bailout package by the US congress, hoping that this will fix their problems. That package failed, and I suspect that any replacement package will be more modest and focussed. It's going to be politically impossible to oush a plan to bail out European banks at the expense of the US taxpayer. This is appropriate I think, because it was a European decision to allow your banks to leverage that highly. Profitable during the boom, but the risks were very high. The same was true in the US, of course, so there is no cause to sneer.

Good luck.
 
Unregistered User

September 30, 2008

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I had like to know your sources, cause if it was the case, I would have sure read that from your fellows, they can't miss an opportunity to bash the EU
 
Donald  Stadler

October 1, 2008

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Martie Claude, here is the link to the NY Times story about the derivatives insurance meltdown: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/28/business/28melt.html?_r=1&hp=&adx...

It was a small unit in AIG located in London that sold these things.

There is a link talking about Europe's banking problems: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122272113757787351.html?mod=googlen...


Finally, here is a link to what iconic billionaire Warren Buffett thought about derivatives way back in 2002 - he thought they were extremely dangerous and was working to eliminate them from his businesses back then.

"History teaches us that a crisis often causes problems to correlate in a manner undreamed of in more tranquil times."

http://www.myprops.org/content/Warren-Buffett-On-Derivatives-deriva...

 
Unregistered User

October 1, 2008

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uh, UK, well it's not new, there have been already surprimes scandals a few years ago.
As far our banks they already have a state participation, up to the third . As the Wall Street journal says, we are in habit to pay for our state mistakes and or successes, so the impact will not be so hurtful here
 
Member deleted

October 4, 2008

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Sales Promotion Approach.
In American corporations the only way for executives to advance is to take on more departments and supervise more people. This is difficult enough under normal conditions. Now try this under conditions when many lower ranks have been laid off by the corporation streamlining causing executives to justify their jobs and high salaries with now fewer people to supervise and you may begin to see a precarious situation.

Executive Salary justification comes partially from taking credit for ideas provided from experienced lower ranks. The lower ranks (including 1st level managers) often have many ideas for improving the company in various ways. Under streamlined conditions where there are fewer than optimum number of workers, people have to work harder and smarter and learn more job skills in order to multi-task and make up for laid off workers.

Sales Executives have found their smooth talking gift of gab and saying they can achieve results in any area of specialty has gotten them promoted to supervise sections where they have no experience. Why? Because the stock market demands a corporation not just be stable, it must continuously increase production and profit add-infinitum.

The Problems: When a sales executive tries to manage or improve a department (say technology) he knows nothing about some problems occur. Lack of understanding causes communication gaps, programming requires planning and time writing which he cannot accurately estimate so he creates time lines that are not achievable and thereby over works people and fails in the end anyway. The results are minimal or no improvements.

Survival Economics: Rich people do buy products built by the average workers, so it is important to maintain an executive level. It is also obvious that average workers buy many things that support other workers jobs in the economy. When people and corporations fail the economy suffers.

Suggestions:
1. Keep executives in a related field of expertise.
2. Give lower ranks credit for their ideas.
3. Give corporations points for stability.
 
Donald  Stadler

October 4, 2008

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Jeff, I'm shocked. What you propose is tantamount to Red Bolshevism.

Advocating that the top managers of a corporation practice - good management? Spread rewards to the lower ranks in some kind of systematic way rather than gathering all to on high?

Next thing we'll see you propose that coporations actually train their workers - and not just the next generation of 'fast-trackers'.

What you propose is sometime called 'Druckerism' (after Peter Drucker), and it is basically communism! ;)
 
Donald  Stadler

October 5, 2008

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Another crisis weekend in Euroland. I am seeing stories about how the Belgin government is trying hard to save Fortis (again) and the Dutch have seemingly taken over the Nederlands components of Fortis completely.

Meanwhile the Hypo Real Estate Holding AG bailout appears to be in trouble after several banks withdrew from it's bailout plan. This according to Bloomberg. I'm not sure why, I cant see how things could be all that bad. Probably another liquidity crunch thing. An Irish unit appears to be the source of the crisis for Hypo. It sounds similar to the crisis which brought down Northern Rock UK. Northern Rock made long term loans but acquired much of it's capital from short-term funding markets. When those markets dried up Northern Rock was toast.

Good luck to European regulators, you may have to go to a more heavy-handed 'shock and awe' approach to these things. I don't think subtley is working just now....

 
Bernhard  Lucke

October 6, 2008

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I'm not an expert in economics, but focus on feddback processes (usually in environmental systems). But the idea applies to any other system as well.

In the media it appears as if the financial crisis is an indepented event, a matter of finance experts and regulations. However, we always learn from feedback analyses that things are much more complex. I recommend Frederic Vester's ideas on "interconnected thinking" (http://www.frederic-vester.de/eng). The game "Ecopolicy" is a very good introduction into the idea: http://www.frederic-vester.de/eng/ecopolicy/

Let us consider some other aspects of current finance crisis:

- rising energy prices make it increasingly impossible to pay back loans (especially for American citizens)
- car sales went down by 41% in some European countries, and the S.U.V.-market has completely collapsed, which will at some time be reflected in the employment rates (big trouble ahead?)
- food prices in most developing countries doubled, and oil prices tripled, which may lead to unrests since many people will be unable to pay for the heating during winter (if they don't starve)
- more security will be needed, which means more expenses, and less civil rights
- the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan cost around 400.000.000 $ a month
- we have entered a circle of armament, while the war risk is rising thanks to diminishing resources, eroding morals, and increasingly brutal fights (largely carried by mercenaries)
- nobody knows the costs of climate change, but they might be tremendous

To some degree, the current situtation reminds me to my research on the collapse of the Roman empire and other collapses of civilizations in the Near East. It is always hard (if not impossible) to name single reasons. However, there is no doubt that the great migration was due to famine - and mercenaries as military answer didn't prove too effective. Is the current confrontation of complex and simple societies comparable with the past?

The unfortunate thing with exponential growth is that it always leads to collapse in simulations. Let's hope this proves again wrong in reality.
 
Donald  Stadler

October 6, 2008

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"rising energy prices make it increasingly impossible to pay back loans (especially for American citizens"

Ummm, not as much as other factors. It is true that some of the hardest-hit sections of bad real estate are the ones furthest from metropolitian areas (far from jobs). But that is because these areas disproportionately attracted people with marginal finances seeking their own houses rather than renting apartments closer to work. These people were voerborrowed and close to the edge. Two things pushed them over; rising costs of living and the fact that house prices stopped rising, meaning that they could not refinance to keep up payments they could not afford.

Dropping house prices on the perimiter put pressure on speculator-rift ridden real estate closer to the center; these have also lost value but not as much.

Energy is important but not that big a factor - unless you are on the edge and borrowed up to the limit. I live in London & don't own a car - my monthly cost is up perhaps £20, perhaps less. If I cut the heater and put on a sweater even less. The tube is relatively affordable. I can cut food expenses a bit, maybe go to less cinema & theatre.

A man with a large house and a big truck or SUV who has a long commute to work and big loans on the house and car - has a much bigger problem of course.
 
Meredith L. Nicoll

October 7, 2008

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Yes Donald!

I would also like to point out that, ever since the "white flight" in the 50s, living in civic centers, until maybe very recently in some places, has been viewed in the US as dangerous and low-class. People did anything to have their own home.
The most disturbing example in my experience was in Los Angeles. People would live in "suburbs" that were a 2 or even 3 hour drive away from work in order to afford their own property. Their reasons always included better education and safer neighborhoods for their families, quieter life, etc.
Those people, even with a super high mpg car will not be able to pay their house payments when gas costs go through the roof and there are no, I repeat, no public transit options.

So, I guess we could list crime, city school failure and lack of public transport to the list of reasons.
 
Donald  Stadler

October 7, 2008

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Meredith, there are two models of city geography. In places like Boston, Seattle, New York, and even Washington DC to a degree the city geography is in-urbanizing rather than ex-suberbanizing, And even in the most extreme example of suburbanisation (LA) the worst trouble spost for the real estate crash are the furthest suburbs.

I suspect that the solution for these crisis spots will ultimately for them to urbanize as more of a self-sufficient city in their own right (factories, office buildinging, etc) built up locally to take advantage of cheap housing. But that will have to wait for the present crisis to stabilize.

You are correct about the lack of public transport options. But (I repeat) it's not so much the increased cost of gas as other things which made these places less viable, because even increased gas prices are still outweighed by the other costs of running a car (payments, maintenence, insurance).

The fact is that many of these mortgages were unsound in the beginning and relied upon rising real estate prices and refinacing to stay afloat. I rented a room once from a couple in a similar situation in New Jersey - they were barely staying ahead of their payments both working full time plus part time jobs on the side. I know my monthly rental for my room made a big difference to them.
 
Meredith L. Nicoll

October 8, 2008

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Donald,

I would also like to point out that people who live in suburbs do not nescesarrily live there because of the cheap housing (look at the couple in Jersey), but instead for a relatively cheap house. One of the big bonuses to owning a suburban house is to live in neighborhoods far from factories, office buildings, etc. The idea of owning a house would, itself, have to change in oder for the self-sufficient-city idea to work. But I agree, it needs to work and the ideal needs to change.

However, another side of the story might be that this ideal has, indeed, been changing in recent years, which contributed to the falling prices in the first place.
There is an in-ubanizing trend of a lot of cities that were once ex-suberbanizing (like say Chicago, with it's vast suburbs that were developed over the last 50 years or so). Cheap, undesirable rentals within the city center caused a vacuum that sucked the attention away from the dream of your own house. Renting a beautiful apartment in the city is much more desirable to certain populations that, in past generations, used to seek out big suburban back yards. This vacuum caused by this cultural shift must have also played some part in the falling of market prices.

If so, the falling market could have been seen a mile ahead as inner-city rents went up and inner-city neighborhoods were gentrified (like in Portland, OR: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/29/us/29portland.html?_r=1&oref=slogin). How could people have expected to be able to build and build in the suburbs when young families are obviously wanting to move into the city? Makes the mortgage companies seem all the more evil, the people who signed them more stupid, or maybe they all just had too much faith in the picket-fence dream.

What do you think?
 
Member deleted

November 7, 2008

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Planning
Understanding can lead to better planning for the future based on promoting the good aspects of each economic style or combination of styles, and avoiding the bad aspects of each style or combination of styles (easier said than done). Modern economics tend to use a combination of styles even though the leaders play the game pretending to be strictly capitalist, communist, whom-everist.
Some banks originally only gave loans to individuals or companies and made their profits from the standard interest. The stock market was separate and was a way for corporations to not pay interest to a bank for a loan, and at the same time individual investors could own a piece of the corporation and hopefully make a profit in the long run. The real problem now is that the banks and stock markets are becoming more intertwined, so that banks are making more investments, which creates a situation that when one falls the other is sure to fall with no safety net for anyone.

Here is my Couch Potato’s Guide to Planning.
Task: Plan the future of humanity based on knowledge of where we have been (foundation), where we are (capability) and where we are going (improvement).

History Channel. Where have we been and how we created our foundation. Isaac Newton was asked why he achieved so much and replied: “If I have seen further [than certain other men] it is by standing upon the shoulders of giants” (other clever men before me). We have moved from an ancient time when farming was our main source of survival and ancient Slavic people designated the family as the first level economic unit. The children learned a specialty craft from the parents.

Discovery Channel. Explore your world and find out where we are now and what our capabilities have created. Now we learn many different functions just to maintain one job. Example: Driving, computer programs, operating office or factory machines, communications skills and etiquette. We have created an education system to prepare our youth to survive in an increasing level of multi-tasking society.

Science Channel. Research, research always pointing us in some new directions according to our desires, our curiosity and our studies. Something in our nature makes us strive to be better, to learn more, to make new inventions and to create a never ending set of new tools which are more capable themselves and more adaptable to our needs. The more adaptable the tools become the more they assist us to accomplish more. At the same time the more skilled we as uses of these tools must be to understand and use these new tools.

National Geographic Channel. Weather, water, seasons, crops, animals, fish, minerals and all the things that we both depend on to survive, and that we have an ever increasing affect on has become an important part of our survival. Recycling to extend the life of our raw materials, generating energy in eco-friendly and sustainable ways and continuing to enjoy and respect the power of nature.

Science Fiction Channel. Yes the future is where we are going and Science Fiction seems to be planning the many extremes of possible futures. As individuals, corporations and governments we each seem to be more concerned with immediate survival and maybe 10 to 20 years into the future. A few brave souls have ventured to plan a hundred to a thousand years into the future. This seems to bring lots of explorers to see the possibilities, and then they dash back to trying to pay the bills each month just like the rest of us.
 
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November 8, 2008

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The Human Factors appear to play a very strong role in local economics and an expanded role in Global economics as more mind sets or points of view are added. I created a short list of these factors that I believe are affecting the current economy, for us to think about.

Nirvana Factor: The Utopia idea is has been around for a long time with thoughts of Atlantis the historic version of an advanced utopian culture. Brasilia is a modern version of the Utopia city from the 1970’s and was partially successful. A wonderful idea where the world has less competition, and architecture and landscape promote a meditative Nirvana state of mind where creativity and advanced understanding of concepts becomes natural.

Conquistador Factor: The love of competition seems to be a part of nature for insects, animals and humans. Throughout history this played out as war between rival countries. Recently it plays out as war between corporations. The stock market is designed such that a company cannot just be stable and have steady loyal customers and employees. The company must in fact be increasing profit each quarter, so they must war with other companies for the same customers. They may also spread rumors about the rival company so their stock prices fall. Follow this through to the extreme and the world will become 1 large diversified corporation managed by a Gazillionaire.

Co-operation Factor: We are one big happy family and should work together sharing the work and sharing the wealth equally. Professor Hölldobler in his book “The Ants” says: “The path to colonial supergiant is first paved by the maximization of the inclusive fitness of each individual of the society. How this might arise, he believes, is that competition that might exist between individuals in the same society diminishes as the incipient colonial society becomes larger, better organized and contains better division of labor – and, ultimately, better cohesiveness.” Is global economics an attempt to achieve this type of human superorganism?

Scam Factor: Criminals like to get ahead in life quick, so they come up with ways to trick other people into letting them steal their money. Example: Instead of going with the standard pricing in a professional line of work they make up a new pricing that at the begging seems clear and at the end seems ridiculous. Say you want your house painted. The standard price is some amount per square foot of wall space or some amount per hour. All of this is standard and a painter can give you an estimate of the cost before starting.
Now the scam artist will say: He charges by the number of cans of paint used in the job and he will just count up the number of cans when he finishes. He will not give you any estimate. He starts the job and each day a new and incredible number of cans appear, you calculate and realize you cannot afford to pay and tell the man to stop painting. He gets mad, starts yelling saying he is going to call the police because you are stealing from him by not honoring what you agreed to in the beginning.

Loyalty Factor: In order for a business to succeed it needs experienced workers. Typically this results in leaders being loyal to the workers (job security) and the workers are also loyal to the company. Recently this has been changing dramatically. Employees are calculated as human capitol. To lower cost and appear to the stock market to be making more profit, executives will lay off workers at the end of the first quarter and hire back more at the beginning of the fourth quarter. Employees are pushed to do twice as much, then others laid off since someone else can now do that work. This causes friction between employees; those who can do twice as much are despised and plotted against to get them fired.
Also employees realizing that at the end of certain projects they will get laid off, are not waiting. They go and find another job before the completion of the project. Leading by example (giving no loyalty) has resulted in receiving no loyalty.

Revolution Factor: Former US vice President Al Gore said “What the USA needs is a Revolution in Thinking.” The modern term thinking out of the box is popular. However I can’t help wondering if thinking outside of one box equals thinking inside another box. In which case; we may want to try thinking inside of all boxes and then comparing the various outcomes to arrive at a more replete solution.

Solutions Factor: In the 1970’s the USA was all concerned with finding problems and analyzing them from every angle to fully understand the problem. In the 1980’s we realized 80% of the time was spent on analyzing the problem and 20% dedicated toward solving the problem. We decide this needed to be reversed. By the 1990’s we improved so much we coined the phrase Solutions. Creating Solutions teams and committees and became so obsessed we even were creating solutions and causality software. Excel spread sheets became a tool of choice with a myriad of formulas and easy conversion to charts to get a visual of every detail every month. This led us to where we all are now on this Think Tank and the following questions that we are collectively trying to answer for various problems: How do we identify, analyze, solve and then Prevent these reoccurring problems?
 
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November 15, 2008

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Oil the Big Deal
The ancient Sumerian culture in ancient Uruk (modern Iraq) learned to use petroleum for various reasons. The obvious reason is burning it for light and heat. They also learned of its chemical properties and chemically synthesized oil into medicinal formulas use to heal the sick.
In recent centuries the world has industrialized and developed a larger and more complex civilization, proving that evolution does indeed take place. If we use the Jean Lamarck concepts applied to our civilization a heightened level of understanding arises:
1. Le pouvoir de la vie: The complexifying force
Lamarck referred to a tendency for organisms to become more complex, moving 'up' a ladder of progress. He referred to this phenomenon as Le pouvoir de la vie or la force qui tend sans cesse à composer l'organisation (The force that perpetually tends to make order).
2. L'influence des circonstances: The adaptive force
The second component of Lamarck's theory of evolution was the adaptation of organisms to their environment. This could move organisms sideways from the ladder of progress into new and distinct forms with local adaptations.

Now let us view the human race in its evolution.
1. We develop small nomadic tribes that move from place to place as resources are depleted in one area. Basic tools and skills are required to fulfill basic needs.
2. Then we learn to farm and develop small villages as we can now produce more food and sustain a larger population. We start to develop more tools, for improving our farming (planting, irrigating, harvesting, transporting), and for improving our housing (wood working tools, stone working tools). Intermediate level tools and skills are now required to fulfill the basic needs.
3. Our increased building skills created larger buildings, our transportation allows us to move food longer distances so we develop larger cities. These larger cities house many more people who demand many more services (more tools and skills required) and the greater distances and varied interactions require a more sophisticated communication system (language, writing, messengers). Advanced tools and skills are required to fulfill our basic needs.

Oil is used to power our transportation system, both automobiles and aircraft. Oil is also used to create many of our modern tools, by forming plastic parts for those tools. Oil is used by all chemical companies to produce their products.

How does oil affect the economy positively and negatively?
Positive: By fueling the transportation system we are able to transport goods and services around the world. This transportation network supports the world’s large population with jobs and products. Tools made with plastic parts are lighter and transported easier.

Negative: Chemical and production companies generally enter into agreements to supply others with goods and services at a set price for 1 or more years. Oil companies refuse to agree to any set prices and often raise the price for no reason other than to increase their profits. This raises the price of the base product for Chemical companies which are now losing money as the base product is now costing more than the end product they are selling. Some companies have gone out of business because of this.

Wall Street stocks rise and fall based on oil prices. Initially they fell every time oil prices went up, now the scam is to invent a reason to drop stock prices even when oil prices decrease.

If you want to balance a part of the world economy then oil prices should be set for each year or 2 years and not changed for any reason, until the end of the agreed time, which all business should be aware of so they can plan and set their prices accordingly. Unpredictability in the world market day to day creates panic and leads to collapse and chaos.

I would appreciate some comments (positive and negative) from others on this. Please!
Tags: | Oil the big deal | economics |
 

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