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Barely three weeks, ago Taliban-backed militants moved into the Buner District of northwestern Pakistan. Subsequently Pakistan's government abandoned its peace deal with the Taliban over control of the Swat Valley area. Reportedly, Pakistani security forces launched a vigorous offensive against the Taliban militants in the area last week. This chain of events once again demonstrates the country's proximity to inexorable state collapse and internal war.

A state failure of nuclear-armed Pakistan poses a major security threat to the region and the world. The international community recently decided to offer billions of dollars in aid to Pakistan's government to reestablish sustainable statehood in the country. Strong and immediate financial support is a necessary step to prevent state failure. With funding secured, the right measures need to be defined: what specific policies should the international community pursue to stabilize Pakistan?

I suggest investing first and foremost in security and economic development to prevent Pakistan from deteriorating. Of course there are further measures needed to save Pakistan from failing in the long-term (such as institution building, further democratization or the strengthening of civil society) but their feasibility depends at least partly on improvements in the two core areas.

The most elementary tasks a stable state needs to fulfill are the provision of internal and external security to its population and the enforcement of law and order. The present threat of terrorism and the fighting in Swat Valley and the Buner District reveal the government's inability to fulfill this task.

Two possible reasons come to mind. First, Pakistan's security forces are trained to face a traditional enemy, like India, and not for counterinsurgency operations and guerrilla fighting. Second, there is a dire lack of well trained Pakistani police officers to enforce country-wide law and order in the long term. Hence, in order to enable Pakistan's government to maintain security, the international community should invest in Pakistan's army to improve their capacity in fighting counterinsurgency warfare and militancy. Furthermore, the international community should invest in recruiting, training and deployment of additional police forces.

Low-income countries face a much higher risk of state failure than developed ones. Indeed, a major risk factor for state failure in Pakistan - growing support for Taliban in the population - is linked to Pakistan's catastrophic economic situation.

Recent studies show that the largest part of Taliban-adherents support the movement not for ideological reasons but for economic ones. Thus, a large part of the aid provided by the international community should be aimed at fostering Pakistan's economic development. This should include short-term measures like covering Pakistan's immediate budget shortfalls as well as long-term measures like improving infrastructure for public education, water and irrigation, electricity and energy and agriculture.

To save Pakistan from failing is probably one of the most important challenges the international community faces these days, but the road to a secure, stable, and prospering Pakistan is long and hard. Security and economic development should be seen as first, but urgent steps. The ongoing skirmishes in Swat Valley and the Buner district may turn into a full blown civil war within the next few weeks. Then state failure in Pakistan will be imminent.

Urs Schrade is a Lecturer at Heidelberg University's South Asia Institute and a PhD candidate concentrating on Failed States.

Related materials from the Atlantic Community:

• Tanvir Orakzai: Fall Out of Afghanistan War Brings Lingering Tension in Pakistan to Boil
• Robert D. Kaplan: Pakistan's Turbulent Coastal Region
• Parag Khanna: Obama Needs the Unusual Suspects to Pacify South-Central Asia