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June 16, 2009

Martin Tönnes

A counter-revolution is going on in Iran. The best the West can do is stay out of it.

June 16, 2009

Colette Grace Mazzucelli, Hofstra University / New York University, Platinum Contributor (252)

Dear Editorial Colleagues,

Please see an initial commentary on the website, Conversations on Diplomacy and Power Politics at the URL: http://www.diplomacyandpower.com/

I look forward to contribute more as events unfold. The analysis below may be overtaken by events in the coming days and weeks...

All the best, Colette


Watching the Web for Change in Tehran
June 15, 2009 by admin · Leave a Comment

Filed under: Commentary, Iran, Media

How Influential is the ‘Marketplace of Ideas?’
By: Colette Mazzucelli*

The 2009 Iranian national elections were striking for the range of media the population used to participate in the debate among the presidential candidates. In the midst of protests about the disputed outcome, which re-elected incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iranian elites argue that dissent emanates from the Western media rather than the populace. In the days and months ahead, it will be interesting to observe how those who voted for the reformist challenger, Mir Hossein Mousavi, will air their grievances. How will popular dissent be channeled in a regime driven to act by fear of change? (1) How will Ahmadinejad’s declared victory impact on the increasing rivalries among Iranian elites, which the election revealed?

For these elites, the 2009 elections are not about an overthrow of the system that serves their interests. The last word on matters of religion and state is that of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The Supreme Leader’s style is to encourage competition among rival players for influence. Although his institutional position is unassailable, power in Iran is increasingly diffuse. This makes the regime as hard to read from the inside as from beyond the borders of the state. There are those who argue that the 2009 elections reveal the potential to open the Iranian system to democratic forces, particularly since the 60% of the Iranian population under 28 years of age clamors for reforms. This leads observers to inquire about what Snyder and Ballentine have identified as the marketplace of ideas. Continue to read the full article…

June 17, 2009

Donald Stadler, Self-employed, Diamond Contributor (1052)

I wish there is something the West could do about it. But in a sense the 'West' already has intervened - indirectly. The role of Western technologies such as Twitter and other things to connect the dispossessed reformers has been critical in organizing mass protests. The authorities were caught by surprise and forced to be very repressive. Not only with the riot police but also in shutting down the internet, mobile phones, and other communications.

Most maladroit. A system which has specialized in relatively subtle means of controlling the outcome of elections has suddenly stood forth in broad relief with some very guilty-seeming actions made very obvious. It is a repressive system, but that repression has been somewhat cloaked till now. Now it is being openly challenged.

I've read predictions that the end result will be a massacre like Tieneman Square, but I'm not necessarilly convinced of that. The ruling mullahs are not the Chinese Communist Party; a large part of their authority rests on their moral authority. Massacres are not moral and cannot be made so. There are no shortage of Grand Ayatollahs and other clerical leaders who would loudly denounce anything like that, and perhaps one or more might move to Paris as Khomeni did many years ago.

The other problem for the authorities is that the iconography of protest is an integral part of their legitimacy. I am referring to the mass protests and street battles of 1978-1979 led by Ayatollahs against the Shah. Now the tables are turned and Khameni and his circle have become what they most hated; they are now the Shah.

June 24, 2009

Michael j Barry, projection, (3)

Governments reflect in large part the nature of the people living in a country. It would be nice to think that social order could return to Iran. As always its a debate between order and anarchy. Can a country include all its citizens or will it disenfranchise some and what you do with the ones you are out casting. For they have a right to living and life as much as the majority,
As an individual I have a duty of care to try to be constructive, creative and tolerant of others attempts.
Do you model it on the US a 2 party system where 7.5 million aprox people are in jail and 5%approx of the population own 90%approx of the wealth and is currently decimating Afghanistan with the UK. Or perhaps the UK a monarchy(one family) which has been in power for centuries and also owns most of the land in the UK with a select few.
Perhaps the real question is can we resist interfering in/with someone else's country when our own utopia's are becoming more intolerant and are difficult for so many of our own citizens to survive in.