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In times rocked by the worst crisis since the 1920s, one may question whether Western civilization is able to maintain its status and power. Almost forty years ago, the Club of Rome published a survey - called "The Limits to Growth" - on the consequences of a rapidly growing world population and finite resource supplies. It concluded: If the current growth rate of the world's population, industrialization, pollution, production of food, and exploitation of resources continues, the limits to growth would be reached within the next hundred years. The authors updated the study in 2004 and predicted the collapse of world system would occur by 2030, if we continued with "business as usual."

Analysis of the current developments worldwide may lead to the conclusion that the West faces a historical setback and deterioration in its standards of living. Not only because of the collapse of many financial systems and parts of capitalism itself, but also because this crisis is directly linked with other phenomena we face, firstly climate change. Below are some arguments, why the industrialized countries must become accustomed to the idea of a decline in standards.

In a News Magazine article called "A Darker Future for Us", Robert J. Samuelson outlines the implications of the economic crisis and says the US (and linked to it, the European) economy always was geared toward progress and expansion. "We Americans are progress junkies." But Americans (as well as Europeans) need to adjust to the end of these expectations. Not only are we facing the financial crisis, but we will also need to deal with other issues such as the "aging society, runaway health spending, global warming."

All this leads to the assumption that we may bury belief in a society which is built on an endlessly growing economy fuelling more and more prosperity. "We may now be on the cusp of a new era that frustrates these widespread expectations. [...] Americans do not have a divine right to rapid economic growth."

Worldwide, globalization, acceleration of capital, and capitalism in general (which needs prosperity and expansion to function) have met limits. In search for new markets, capitalism has circled the world and taken possession of every market possible. For now, an end to this expansion seems possible. What will happen then? Will it be the way Samuelson predicts? "Down that path lies 'affluent deprivation.' To use an old but apt cliche: people will fight over pieces of a fairly fixed economic pie rather than sharing ever-larger pieces of an expanding pie."

If we assume that the worldwide standard of living evens out at a roughly similar level, there is no way to escape a decline in Western prosperity and wealth. Today, people all over the world ask themselves why they are excluded from the distribution of affluence. With the expected turnovers in global economy and the obvious failure of some parts of the system, the distribution of the "welfare-pie" will be challenged, if not the system itself.

Other expansion ending phenomena, which are directly linked to "The Limits to Growth" by the Club of Rome, may also come along. An article at Peak Oil News warns about the effect finite oil resources will have: "The problem lies in our ability to comprehend this looming catastrophe and act quickly enough to avoid a complete economic collapse."

How will change take place? How can the Western world arrange itself? And what are possible scenarios for a potential decline of economy and wealth? Last but not least there is a moral question: Might the West keep its advantageous position because of its unique development, innovations and business sense or is it not just fair when people in Bangladesh or elsewhere may live at the same level like people in Italy in the distant future?

Three basic ideas result from this:

1. Search for new markets seems to come to an end; capitalism has met a limit of expansion.
2. The West will face a decline in living standards.
3. Conditions will align, not at our level but at a middle-rate level, lower than that we are used to.

Florian Kuhne is New History, Political Science and Anthropology student at Westfälische Wilhelms-Universität Münster.

Related materials from Atlantic-Community.org:

• Marek Swierczynski: Gas Dispute Puts Energy Security At Top of EU Agenda
• Wolfgang Nowak: The Rise of the Rest
• Bijan Daniel Kherzi: The Future of Democracy in Question After Financial Crisis
  
• Jordan Levine: Socioecological Innovation - An Alternative Future