The Moldovan government's disproportionate response to the recent post-election demonstrations suggests that the democratization process in the country is lagging compared to other states in the region, such as Ukraine. In fact, Chisinau's questionable commitment to Western values and norms - never judged to be very strong under the current Communist leadership - and the resultant instability could potentially hinder its planned inclusion in the European Union's (EU) new Eastern Partnership aid program.
On April 5, 2009, the ruling Communist Party handily won parliamentary elections in Moldova, reportedly garnering approximately 50% of the vote. The ballot, which was judged as fair by monitors from the Organization for the Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), provoked violent protests at least tacitly supported by Moldova's three main opposition parties whose leaders claimed that "the elections were fraudulent, there was multiple voting."
However, not all international observers agreed with the OSCE's assessment, pointing to at least one reported incident of attempted voter disenfranchisement during the election and the organization's pro-Moscow tilt.
In any case, protests commenced after organizers summoned participants, largely university students, via social media, such as Twitter and text messaging. Crowds seized the parliament and smashed furniture and computers within. Their demands, which included fresh elections, were rejected by the government of Vladimir Voronin. At least 30 protestors were reported injured, the Moldovan police employed tear gas against the demonstrators and cellular services were disconnected during the demonstrations.
The Voronin government, echoed by the Russian foreign ministry, has adopted a harsh position on the matter. Chisinau has characterized the proceedings as "inspired and fueled by Romania" and a "coup d'état." Likewise, Russian officials expressed "extreme concern" regarding the events and stated that "there was a plot aimed at undermining ‘the sovereignty of Moldova.'"
Bucharest has denied Chisinau's accusations of involvement in the protests and has not responded in kind to the expulsion of the Romanian ambassador from Moldova. Romanian officials attempted to persuade Moldova to remain on a pro-Western path. However, the episode is likely to sour the already complex relations between the two countries, although regional fallout appears to have been contained.
The European reaction to events in Moldova has been cautious. While calling on all sides to "refrain from violence and provocation," Javier Solana, the European Union's foreign policy chief, also reaffirmed protestors' right to demonstrate in peace. Moldova is due to join the EU's Eastern Partnership aid initiative next month. It remains unclear whether Voronin's unfriendly overtures towards EU member Romania will affect his country's participation in the Partnership program. Nevertheless, the Union has expressed readiness to strengthen ties with Moldova "in accordance with European principles" referring to respect for democracy, rule of law, and minorities.
Russian President Dmitri Medvedev was the only foreign leader to congratulate Voronin following the contested elections. Relations between Russia and Moldova are complex, not least because while Moldovans working abroad have sent home $1.6 billion in remittances- an amount approximately equal to the state's budget, the Moldovan Communist party ran on a platform to build a "European Moldova." Such a shift may be unadvisable for a country that remains heavily dependent on Moscow for gas and other deliverables given Russia's recent policies in the region.
Elizabeth Zolotukhina is head editor of the Case Studies Working Group with the Project on National Security Reform. She received her undergraduate degree from the University of Pittsburgh.
Related Materials from the Atlantic Community:
- Fabian Martin Lieschke: How to Extend NATO's MAP to Ukraine and Georgia
- Constanze Stelzenmüller: Germany's Russia Question
- Andreas Umland: NATO-Russia War: A Possible Scenario
- 2
April 21, 2009
Member deleted
In my post "Twitter Revolution-Case Moldova" http://arirusila.wordpress.com/2009/04/10/twitter-revolution-%E2%80... I described a bit implementation and motivations about events occurred after 5th April elections in Moldova. Conclusions about elections itself are in my post "Election in Moldova – Nato Perspective blocked” http://arirusila.wordpress.com/2009/04/08/election-in-moldova-%E2%8...
Some random pickings from Moldovan twitters about situation are describing situation afterward:
…about 200 people was arrested and nobody know where they are now...communist president had a meeting will all school and university deans, and told them that they'll be fired if police catch one of their students at protest….also they close borders with Romania, and don’t let international journalists to enter in country. 3 journalists was denied entry in airport…2 Moldavian journalists disappeared after they filmed undercover police beating students...while in Chisinau people was protesting and fighting, national tv had on a documentary film...
On the other hand demonstration has been characterized also as an act where
youth, paid by older internationally-acting manipulators with money, alcohol and drugs, seized a presidential office, planted a Romania’s flag on a president palace and set on fire country’s parliament, demanding inclusion as a province in Romania.”
Conspiracy 1
The first conspiracy theory came public April 14th by Eurasian Secret Services Daily Review. According its sources flags of Romania and EU over Moldova’s presidential office building were run up by employees of Moldavan secret services. The Flags of Romania and the European Union which have been run up on April 7, over the building of the Moldova’s presidential office during the protest actions against falsifications of parliamentary elections, were raised up at presence of a policeman, a source in the Information and Security Service (SIS) of Moldova told news agency Regnum April 14th. According to the source, the flag of Romania overt the building was raised by an employee of the SIS. (Source AXIS http://www.axisglobe.com/article.asp?article=1800 )
Conspiracy 2
Few days later April 16th Moldavian President Vladimir Voronin expressed totally opposite conspiracy theory claiming that nine Serb nationals took part in organising the coup d’état in Chisinau, adding that the Moldavian secret service has information that the unrests were headed by former ‘resistance’ fighters. President Voronin said he had a photograph of a Serbian citizen who he claims is working for the Americans. – We have it all on tape and we can identify all the animals who were attacking the police – Voronin said.
Speaking in an interview for the Spanish daily El Pais, Voronin said nine Serbian citizens and several Romanian agents have been registered in Chisinau.
Danko Cosic from Serbia, the director of a non-governmental organisation “Prokoncept”, who was an observer in Moldavia during the elections, said that the country does not even have nine Serbs in it. – They showed the photograph Voronin speaks of. I am on that photo. They took the photo in front of the presidency building. I took no part in any violence. For sure, whoever is taking part in violence is not holding his hands in his pockets – Cosic concluded. He also said that the story of President Voronin is very illogical. – Nine Serbs could not organise a riot. There was me and another young man there – Cosic said. (Source AXIS http://www.axisglobe.com/article.asp?article=1803 )
Hasty consequences
Twitter revolution – no coup d’etat but big drama anyway
There are growing social forces in Moldova seeking reunification with Romania for nationalist reasons and as an easy path to EU membership. Already between 10% and 20% of Moldovans have Romanian, and by extension EU, passports. The fear of Romanian expansionism frightens Transnistria away from reconciliation, while the “Kosovo precedent” gives its arguments for independence more weight.
Romanian President Traian Basescu told the Romanian parliament that he would fast-track Moldovans for Romanian citizenship following riots in the Moldova (Source DW http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,4185592,00.html ) . Fast-tracking citizenship to some 1m people next door in Moldova, in effect giving EU citizenship to a quarter of the population of Europe’s poorest state.
EU institutions are appalled (Source euobserver http://euobserver.com/9/27955 ) at Romania's proposal to give citizenship. The website quoted an unnamed EU official as describing the plans as "frightening."
To make issue more complicate one should also note that at same time Russia is trying to draw Transdniestr into its orbit by giving out passports to (Moldovan) citizens living in this breakaway republic.
My perspective
From my perspective few points I would like to highlight, such as
¤ If it is true that Moldovan government had purposeful utilization of demonstration I would claim this to be a double stupidity: First to implement this kind of action when you actually have almost landslide win in the election and second to be caught in the act of fabrication. The April 5 parliamentary election may have been flawed, but not to the degree the opposition claims.
¤ Was “Twitter revolution” an attempt of another so-called "colored revolution," or simply an expression of rage by young people who demand to live better lives? There are certainly specific individuals in Moldova who are interested see unification with Romania as the easiest way into the European Union. Looting of government buildings seems more hooliganism than a plan to take control of the country or to bring about "regime change by force.
¤ One question is if using social networks with modern technology very democratic way in politics? This tactic suits mainly in urban areas by people – mostly younger generation – who are familiar with modern communication means and have infrastructure supporting them.
¤ Many in breakaway Transdniester are watching the recent events in Moldova with satisfaction, in that the unrest and violence only serve as a further reason why they should not agree, in the wake of Kosovo's independence, to once again become a part of Moldova.
¤ For over a decade, Transdnistria, South Ossetia and Abkhazia had strong cases for independence, even stronger than Kosovo's (My comparison Kosovo-Transdnstria in article “Transdnistria Follow-up” http://arirusila.wordpress.com/2008/09/05/transnistria-follow-up/ ). Today they have de facto independence, even if it is not recognized. And if now some Moldovans or wannabe Romanians are demanding border changes - after Kosovo - how can they be denied this?
¤ The whole mess now in Moldova makes EU's position challenging; what is its position about this kind of mini-enlargement, how implement new European Partnership (EaP) program on the ground, how deal with secessionist Transdnistria, Gagauz and maybe more regions, what kind of cross-border activities to support?