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October 29, 2009 |  1 comment |  Print | E-Mail Your Opinion  

Next Step For NATO: Cohesion After Bratislava

Jorge Benitez: After excluding the security concerns of NATO’s eastern members as alliance priorities in the past, Secretary General Rasmussen reveals changes at a meeting of NATO Defense Ministers in Bratislava. Are these real changes in alliance policy or just lip service? The answer will be determined by how NATO settles the issue of contingency planning.

In his first speech as Secretary General (August 3), Anders Fogh Rasmussen identified Afghanistan and relations with Russia as the top two priorities for NATO. Unfortunately, that speech ignored the security concerns of the Central European members of NATO and contributed to the perception that rapprochement with Moscow was more important to the alliance than the issues of NATO's eastern members.

In his speech at the Bratislava meeting of NATO Defense Ministers, Secretary General Rasmussen once again revealed NATO's priorities, but this time addressed the security concerns of the Central Europeans. In the context of discussing the review of NATO's Strategic Concept, the Secretary General stressed that, "NATO's core task was, is, and will remain, the defence of our territory and our populations. For our Alliance to endure, all members must feel that they are safe and secure. NATO has never failed in this respect. And I intend that it never will."

At the conclusion of his speech, Rasmussen also emphasized the importance of relations with Moscow, but did so in a way that suggests that NATO will continue to have difficulties in balancing its priorities.

Rasmussen stated that "it is clear that we will continue to have differences with Russia but we must not let these differences hold the entire NATO-Russia relationship hostage. After all, NATO and Russia also have many common interests - in Afghanistan, in combating terrorism, and in preventing nuclear proliferation. And so what we need is a relationship that allows us to pursue these long-standing common interests, and which will not be de-railed every time we disagree."

Nevertheless, Rasmussen continued to show sensitivity to the security concerns of NATO's Eastern members; "don't get me wrong. A more mature NATO-Russia relationship will not mean that the Alliance will sacrifice its core principles.. Clearly we won't. But we do need a new beginning in NATO-Russia relations...."

The new speech will not resolve the division within NATO over the pace and manner of "resetting" relations with Moscow. But it is a positive step toward rebuilding cohesion within the alliance. For too long, alliance unity has been ignored or demanded, instead of being cultivated. The warning voiced by Central European leaders in their Open Letter was crudely dismissed, and the abandonment of their recent partnership in transatlantic missile defense was thrust upon them in a unilateral fashion and with tragically poor timing.

By addressing the issues important to NATO's eastern members, Rasmussen has made a small, but valuable change in NATO's priorities. If the extent of this change is simply more diplomatic language in future NATO speeches and documents, it will fail. The allies worried about relations with Russia will not be content with just superficial courtesy from Brussels and hand holding visits by alliance leaders such as Vice President Joseph Biden. 

On the other hand, if Rasmussen is signaling the beginning of a tangible effort within the alliance, to balance the security concerns of its eastern members with NATO's collective relations with Russia, then it will be a major step forward.  Probably a key litmus test for whether there has been a substantive change in NATO will be the question of contingency planning. According to US Ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder, the Obama administration supports NATO's eastern members on this surprisingly controversial issue.

In a recent interview he stated:"If there is a contingency plan for the defence of the Netherlands, why not for the Baltic states or Poland? Now some allies don't agree, they think it would be provocative. Let me tell you: those allies hear from me every day. I think this is totally fundamental"

Having the alliance reach a consensus on contingency planning will be a far cheaper and less provocative solution than the alternatives, such as Senator Richard Lugar's support for "boots on the ground," or Estonian President Toomas Hendrik Ilves' call for ground exercises to match recent large-scale Russian military exercises near NATO's borders. If Rasmussen can make progress on this issue, it will be a major victory for the unity of the alliance.

In multilateral organizations, members will not always agree, but they must always be respected. Otherwise, the ties that bind begin to lose legitimacy and consensus becomes more and more elusive. By publicly including the security concerns of NATO's eastern members with his emphasis on Russia, Rasmussen is beginning to display his coalition building skill, which is necessary for an effective Secretary General. NATO is facing unprecedented challenges and is in need of unprecedented leadership.

Dr. Jorge Benitez is director of NATOSource, which studies the impact of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in the world today. He is a former Assistant for Alliance Issues to the Director of NATO Affairs in the Office of the Secretary of Defense.  Dr. Benitez received his B.A. from the University of Florida, his M.P.P. from the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, and his Ph.D. from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.

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Tags: | security | Rasmussen | NATO |
 
Comments
Jerzy S Deren

November 4, 2009

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Contingency planning has played crucial role during cold war era when the threat assessment was used as main driving factor for force planning in order to shape required capability. We can notice that NATO's Summits held during last two decades addressed lower possibility for conventional war fighting within its AOR. Therefore, such circumstance has created a new conditions for development of capability oriented and effect based force planning for asymmetric warfare. In doing so, sensitive topic concerning development of new COPs has been replaced by new emergences at the top of priorities agenda and new member became less comfortable and upset compare with fillings presented by old NATO folks.
Dr Jerzy DEREN
 

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