The Bundeszentrale für politische Bildung (Federal Agency for Civic Education) has invited Charles Kupchan, professor at the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University and member of the advisory board of Atlantische Initiative e.V., to reflect on the next US administration's foreign policy agenda. Dr. Kupchan spoke on October 22, 2008 in the Amerika Haus Berlin as part of the public event series "How does Amerika Vote," organized in cooperation with the Institute for Cultural Diplomacy and the Initiative Amerika Haus Berlin.
Dr. Kupchan argued that in all likelihood the president will be Barack Obama. He managed to defeat Hillary Clinton by subverting the establishment through a remarkably organized grass-roots campaign. The unpopular war in Iraq, growing unrest in Afghanistan, and the financial crisis are all playing to Obama's interests. The US is primed to have its first black president, thus changing the global image of America as well.
However,
the United States has never been more divided as it is today. The polarization
of the political landscape has reached its peak. Dr. Kupchan argued that the
lack of bipartisanship in Washington has never been more dramatic, as
Republicans and Democrats are able to cooperate on hardly any substantive
matters. He further emphasized that Senator Obama has taken the lead in several
swing states. Obama has also made headway into a number of typically Republican
safe states, giving hope to the notion of
a centrist government that is capable of reviving American bipartisanship.
But what
will an Obama administration look like? Dr. Kupchan, who served as the director
for European Affairs at the National Security Council during the first Clinton
administration, argued that the next president will probably face the most
difficult presidency in US history. An Obama administration will turn away from
ideology, which has been the centerpiece of George W. Bush's policy, and devote
itself to a pragmatic political agenda. With major domestic problems to solve
and continuing foreign challenges to manage, Obama will turn to old - and new -
transatlantic allies for help. The Obama administration will likely push for
renewed and balanced transatlantic relations in the effort to win back Europe's
support. A President Obama will cooperate on the issue of global warming, close
Guantanamo, and adjust US policies in favor of European interests. While
heading towards a liberal internationalist agenda, the next president will not
be able to adress the challenges of the 21st century without the support
of the United States' unparalleled global partner, Europe.
Watch
our exclusive interview below with Dr. Charles A. Kupchan outlining the
prospects of transatlantic relations after the US presidential elections:
Related materials from the Atlantic Community:
- David Neil Lebhar: Presidential Elections Will Not Shape US Foreign Policy
- Anne Applebaum: The Most Popular American in Europe Since Elvis
- Jan Techau: America Votes but Europe Decides on the Future of Transatlantic Relations
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October 28, 2008
Donald Stadler, Self-employed, Diamond Contributor (1052)
I would argue that this trend is actually past it's peak, within the body of the electorate at least. The mind of the american people, as it were, has clearly moved beyond '50-50 America'.
"The polarization of the political landscape has reached its peak. Dr. Kupchan argued that the lack of bipartisanship in Washington has never been more dramatic, as Republicans and Democrats are able to cooperate on hardly any substantive matters."
This has been true since the 2000 election if not before that. I might argue that bipartisanship was declining since Reagan's election in 1980, and quite possibly since Nixon won the presidency in 1968 and was taken down by a nakedly partisan assault by the Democrats in 1973/74.
But partisanship in Washington DC is a lagging indicator. first the people change, then Washington does.
But I'm not convinced that the people have actually changed their minds about this as much as the GOP managed to discredit themselves. They brought themselves down and the Democrats will get their chance to show what they can do. I don't think the results of this election shows a permanent realignment of the US electorate, because elections don't realign people's opinion. What this election will do is give the Democrats the opportunity to govern. To perform for the american people as it were.
Should they fail to perform enough - well the clock is ticking. By the time of the 2012 election the Democrats will have had control of Congress for 6 years and the White House for 4 years, in 2016 they may have been in power for 10 years and 8 years, respectively. Excuses may have worn thin by either 2012 or 2016, and we may see another flip.