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This is the most interesting, most contested, and most expensive election campaign the US has ever seen. Hundreds of millions of dollars have already been spent and numerous candidates, Republicans and Democrats, have already had to throw in the towel. But the race ain't over yet, although it appears that the looming primaries in Ohio and Texas on March 4 might bring about the long-expected decision of who will be the Democratic nominee: Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama?

After 11 consecutive losses in primaries between Super Tuesday and now, this will be Hillary Clinton's last chance to derail the Obama freight train. Even her husband acknowledged that this is a "make or break" situation for her and that she would have to drop out of the race if she loses both upcoming contests. For weeks, Hillary Clinton had a comfortable double-digit lead in Texas which has evaporated. The latest polls show Obama now leading 48:44. In Ohio, she is still the frontrunner, but Obama is rapidly closing the gap. How is it possible that Hillary Clinton - for months considered the unbeatable frontrunner with the nomination pretty much wrapped up - has been beaten in most states by the newcomer Obama? In my opinion it all boils down to a political phenomenon of unheard proportions: Obama is the new fresh face, the politician with no negative baggage of the usual Washington closed-door policies. His message of change and hope inspires the electorate. It has drawn more young and new voters to the polling stations than in previous primaries. In some states, the turnout numbers of pro-Obama voters and Democrats has been more than double that of Republicans.

And the secret of his success? The key element of his astounding rise to a political superstar lies in his capacity to perfectly mirror and address the aspirations and hopes of the people.

And another development also works in his favor: His attractiveness for all ethnic, age, and income groups among Americans. At the beginning, Clinton had a commanding lead among Hispanics, women, blue-collar workers, and low-income groups. These were the core voting blocks of her early-on successes.

But after Maryland and Virginia and later in Wisconsin, Obama not only made inroads into those traditionally Democratic voting blocks, he now has a clear advantage over Clinton in all voting blocks.

For the first time ever, her camp now acknowledges that she has to win Texas and Ohio to stay in the race. So, what are the core problems she is facing before the showdown?

1. She is at risk of losing the Latino vote. Her husband put it correctly when he recently stated that the Latino vote might decide not only the Democratic party nomination but the general election as well. At that time - months ago - she was enjoying a 2-to-1 lead over Obama. But that is long ago: Obama won the Latino vote in Illinois and Colorado and, just recently, a clear majority in Virginia. And it appears that he is going to repeat this pattern again in Texas.
   
   
2. She is at risk of losing the women's vote: Once a bastion and core element of her national lead, the support of women also has shrunk to marginal numbers. Only women over 65 still favor their "sister." All others have already joined Obama's bandwagon. That's the reason why she now makes her "gender" and the fact that she is the only woman candidate the central message of her Texas campaign. But will it work? Many doubt that the "gender card" will save the day.
   
   
3. She is at risk of losing the support of the party establishment. Until Super Tuesday, they firmly rallied around the Clinton clan. But now, since it has become clear that Obama's electability against presumed Republican candidate John McCain is much higher than hers, many super delegates who had pledged for Hillary in the past, as well as her financial supporters, are having second thoughts. This is her real "Achilles heel," losing public support and the support of the party establishment at the same time. That could be the "perfect storm," bringing down her high hopes of being the Democratic nominee.

A gloomy outlook for the former first lady, who believed for months that Super Tuesday would present her the coronation as the Democratic nominee on a silver platter. Instead, it brought her disaster. Since then, Obama has gained momentum whereas her campaign looks more and more desperate and poorly organized.

And the latest news for Hillary Cllinton is not encouraging either:

Three polls are showing Barack Obama now beating her nationally. He is seen by a majority of 50-40 percent as more electable. Even more telling is the fact that when Democrats were asked who would have the best chance of beating Senator John McCain in the general election, 59 percent voted for Obama, 28 percent for Hillary Clinton. And what about the match-up between Obama and John McCain? The answer: Obama leads McCain by 7 points (49 to 42 percent).

And why is that? Again, the answer is simple: The same independents who gave McCain a solid lead over his competitors in the primaries will abandon McCain for Obama as soon as it comes to national elections. That's why the Republicans hope that Clinton will stay in the race and become the opponent of the Republican nominee. But it looks like they will be getting the candidate they fear most: Barack Obama!

Rüdiger Lentz is head of the Deutsche Welle studio in Washington, DC, and President USA of the Atlantic Initiative.