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June 22, 2010 |  8 comments |  Print | E-Mail Your Opinion  

Jeremy   Wysakowski-Walters

Poland Calls the Bear's Bluff

Jeremy Wysakowski-Walters: Poland must redefine its relations with Russia. Continued military provocations and brinkmanship will only lead to Poland’s position worsening. While maintaining its security interests, Poland must embrace the bear. This notwithstanding, Poland should not negate its democratic ideals.

The deployment of a battery of US Patriot missiles to Poland in May 2010 took place in fulfillment of the agreements reached under the US-Polish Declaration on Strategic Cooperation signed in August 2008. This was from the beginning a symbolic act, as one battery is incapable of defending Polish airspace. This fact was acknowledged by the announcement of Defence Minister Bogdan Klich, who stated that the Polish government has started initial supplier selection for the procurement of ten to twelve Polish-owned batteries costing around $1 billion each. Nevertheless, the deployment brings US-Polish relations to a new level. That fact was not missed by Russia, which in September 2009 rattled its sabre in Operation West: a large scale exercise with Belarus, centred around mock landings on a Polish beach and the mock deployment of nuclear missiles.

While nuclear war is unlikely to be a realistic scenario in the future, Poland is nonetheless walking a dangerous tight rope in its relations with the United States and Russia. The Smolensk air crash, which killed the Polish president and many top figures in the country, led to a thaw in Polish-Russian relations. Many regard it as a departure point for a new era in relations. However, Poland's continued commitment to plans drawn up with America under the Bush administration may yet prove a sticking point.

While other countries in Central and Eastern Europe have trodden more carefully since the region's break with Moscow, Poland built upon its 1999 accession to NATO by staunchly supporting the US on various issues, from the 2003 Iraq War to the proposed missile defence shield. Coupled with Poland's vocal support of Georgia in the 2008 Russia-Georgia War, this pro-American stance has greatly irritated Poland's large eastern neighbour. While not suffering physical attack, Poland has suffered economically, as Russia banned meat imports from Poland. The ban was officially imposed for health reasons, even though the EU for instance determined that Polish meat was safe for consumption.

Poland's goal of placing itself firmly in the 'western' camp following the end of the Cold War has undoubtedly been reached, yet Poland continues to pursue policies which further distance it from Russia. This strategy goes against the geopolitical reality that Poland is faced with, and risks endangering Poland. Even though open conflict is not a likely outcome, Poland's economic interests are threatened. Resource security is a major concern for all countries in the Twenty-first Century, and Poland receives the majority of its gas (approximately 65%) from Russia and other ex-Soviet countries. As the Ukraine found out, Russia can easily turn the tap off.

Therefore, it is paramount that, as we approach the end of the first decade of the Twenty-first Century, Poland establish a more positive relationship with Russia: one that will add to both its economic and military security. This does not mean that Poland must negate its democratic ideals and relinquish its support of countries like Georgia. However, Poland should try to find its own way and embrace a stance that ensures peace and prosperity for Poland and the greater region it resides in.

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Tags: | Russia | Poland | missile defense |
 
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Jakob  Schirmer

June 22, 2010

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I agree: the most prosperous approach of all EU states towards Russia is not exclusion (which was never successful in European history) but intgeration and embrace.
 
Unregistered User

June 22, 2010

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As a start, what was the complaint about the Polish Meat in question.
Surely the author must be aware of random sampling procedures and I doubt that the Europeans analyzed the same meat, the Russians did.
The author seems to be " tickled pink" to be able to show a few patriot missilles close to the border
to Kaliningrad, while the American Crews keep the nuclear warheads for these missiles under wrap.
In addition, the radar installations in the Czech Republic could " see" all the way to the Ural mountains.
To join the ranks, Bulgaria and Romania have also Patriot missiles on their soil............
Yet, nobody can say with certainty who caused and who initiated WWII. Certainly history should not repeat itself.
Just look at the sudden revelations about Afghanistan's mineral wealth. Is it to add new "values" to the war in this country. 1989 Russian geologists identified these deposits, which ware now made public
in the West.
What also cannot be ignored is that Russia and Germany are reducing their military under arms.
But on the Atlantic side Charles De Gaulle's speech made from London during WWII is now
broadcasted across Europe as the most important speech, which kept France French.

What does it tell us: Let's stop shooting from the hip,... live according to our economic means,...
analze what sort of free market we really have, especially with this extrem polarization of capital...

Finally, define Democracy in a Free market Society under the new ruling of The Supreme Court of the Unitd Sates

HRF
Tags: | Poland/ athens |
 
Unregistered User

June 22, 2010

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.... the last sentence of above should read:......
...The Supreme Court of The United States of America....

HRFisf5g64y
Tags: | athens |
 
Jeremy   Wysakowski-Walters

June 24, 2010

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@ Jakob, Thank you for your support. I agree that exclusion is not the answer. As I touched on, the current presidential elections in Poland are important in defining the direction of future relations between Poland and Russia. Sunday's first round predictably resulted in a PiS/PO run off on 4th July. Poland should obviously upgrade its air defence, but it should also ake more conciliatory moves towards Russia.

@Hans, I am a little confused by your comment.
You said:
"The author seems to be " tickled pink" to be able to show a few patriot missilles close to the border to Kaliningrad, while the American Crews keep the nuclear warheads for these missiles under wrap."

Firstly I felt that I objectively stated the facts about the placement of US missiles in Poland and fail to see the humour you portray. Also, the patriots are intercept missiles and as such I do not understand your reference to nuclear warheads.

Your claims about the start of WW2 are simply wrong. They are revisionist in nature and have no bearing on the topic at hand. What have Charles De Gaulle and the French resistance got to do with potential hostility between Russia and Poland? As for your reference to the US Supreme Court, well that's just weird.
 
Unregistered User

June 25, 2010

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Hi Jeremy,

Recently, I felt and commented that the countries on whose soil WW I and II took place are just
coming out of a post war coma and your articel " Poland Calls the Bear's Bluff" certainly doesn't come as a surprise.
Europe and with it Russia, Belarus, Ukraine must dissist from continued " Doerferpolitik" between neighbours.
One should not get satisfation out of feeding destabilizing turbulences from distrust and disruptive activities to the detriment of all of Europe, as well as Russia.

Russia is in desparate need of rebuilding its manufacturing base and competitiveness.
Europe in return is in desparate need for raw-materials, such as lithium and many others.
Most of at least 40 of these essentials are in China, Russia, Congo and Brazil.

Despite all the new energy technologies, Oil and gas are here for a long time to come and
Russia will be the main supplier for Europe.
So, Russia and the whole of Europe will be economically interwoven .Russia cannot
achieve parity with the rest of the developed world alone, it already asked the European countries for assistance through investment and know-how.
On the other hand, the rest of the developed world can not continue to support the mountain of debt of just one country.

But all this must be achieved---safe and secure.....

Jeremy, I am happy to report, that the FMs of France, Germany, Russia and Poland
are in the process of dicussing such an security arrangement between their countries.
This will also take some security responsibilities away from the US and NATO.


HRF







Tags: | Poland/ athens |
 
Basia A Bubel

December 3, 2010

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Dear Jeremy,
Just for clarification, are you using the meat example as a way to show that Poland is suffering economically? I believe Poland is doing just fine with meat consumption of its own. Moving on- there is a very important reason why Poland has embraced the USA so much. Relations between Russia and Poland have been very strained for many many many years. The resentment and mistrust goes both ways. It is not solely up to Poland to rebuild a relationship with Russia. Russia can be very pompous and stubborn as can Poland. Russia needs to work hard to create a better relationship with Poland- not the other way around. Russia and Germany have made a deal to create a gas pipeline that directly bypasses Poland! I say that Russia needs to get its act together and that Poland should start buying most of its gas from other sources.
As for this comment "While other countries in Central and Eastern Europe have trodden more carefully since the region's break with Moscow"--- yes maybe some of those countries like Bulgaria see Russia as a great friend and brother and do not have the hurtful past with Russia that Poland does.
 
Jeremy   Wysakowski-Walters

February 7, 2011

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Hello Basia,
firstly sorry for not replying earlier but had did not realise this was still being read as it was published in June 2010.

In terms of pointing out the economic hardship of Poland; no that was not my objective I was showing how Russia can and does use laws and international agreements to further political aims. I recently wrote a story on Baltic-Review.com entitled Russian Winter Thaws Relations ( http://baltic-review.com/2011/01/22/russian-winter-thaws-relations/ ) which talks of an instance which typified this sort of gamesmanship. As far as the two way nature of the situation goes, yes I whole heartedly agree with you. Both countries can be stubborn about their beliefs and history unfortunately has a large part to play in this. In terms of your comment about treading carefully goes, well there is a difference between not wanting to be best buddies and antagonising just for the sake of it. In recent years, especially under the Kaczynskis (both PM and President) things were done which in my opinion were unnecessary.
 
Basia A Bubel

February 12, 2011

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thank you for the response! I agree- Kaczynski did take many unnecessary measures. I just recently found out that Chevron will be exploring natural gas deposits in Eastern Poland. If the natural gas is there, it will be interesting to see how that will change Poland's relationship with Russia.
 

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