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October 29, 2010 |  36 comments |  Print | E-Mail Your Opinion  

Alexander  Pyka

Political Concessions Prevent Nuclear Weapons

Alexander Pyka: War rhetoric and demands for the suspension of the Iranian nuclear program clearly do not work. It is time to make concessions to Tehran in order to move forward and prevent the accession of another country into the nuclear weapons club.

 

First of all, the US rhetoric of escalation, which reminds one particularly of the pre-Iraq War era, does not help and must be stopped. A constant underlying threat of becoming the target of an attack by the United States or Israel - both nuclear-weapon-states - only helps the Iranian leadership in making its own citizens believe that nuclear capabilities are absolutely crucial for deterrence and self-defense. The military option needs to be taken off the table in order to create an atmosphere that allows room for diplomatic movement toward subsequent mutual trust-building.

Secondly, UN Security Council resolutions pressing Iran to suspend its program seem legally questionable. It is essential to realize and accept that Iran has a legal right to develop and use nuclear technology for civil purposes under Art. IV para 1 of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) of 1968, which is legally binding for both Iran and the US. Any attempt to interpret this passage otherwise is doomed to failure in the light of continuing state-practices which allow Non-Nuclear Weapon states such as Germany and Brazil to operate vast civil nuclear programs.

Nevertheless, the fact that any civil nuclear facility can easily be misused for military purposes (dual-use-technology) cannot be ignored. Therefore the IAEA accesses and monitors all nuclear activities and - in the case of Iran - could not find anything. Already one of the first IAEA reports after the discovery of the Iranian program in 2002 stated that "there is no evidence that the previously undeclared nuclear material and activities referred to above were related to a nuclear weapons program." (IAEA-Doc. GOV/2003/75) Although this explicit statement was never repeated, it was never revoked either. Up until today, the IAEA merely expresses "concerns" relating to the "possible existence" of a military program (IAEA-Doc. GOV/2010/10 and GOV/2010/28). Under these circumstances, the lack of moral authority in demanding a suspension of Iran's program becomes understandable, as well as the lack of support for the US strategy by many of the region's actors (e.g. Egypt), for they fear their own rights might eventually be diminished, too.

Hence, the suspension of Iran's nuclear program should not be the condition for lifting sanctions on Iran, as the current resolutions suggest. Success in this matter calls for a solution which all main parties - in particular Iran and the US - can sell at home while at the same time keeping face internationally. A negotiation based on the suspension of nuclear enrichment is very unlikely, given the strong support for the nuclear program from all political parties in Iran. At the same time, Iran's principle right to use nuclear technology cannot preclude the international community from assuring that it has entirely civilian purposes.

Multilateralization of the nuclear fuel cycle is the only practical way to combine these goals. A multinational, commercial uranium enrichment facility in, or outside Iran would provide the country with enriched uranium, without providing the sensitive technology. Such a facility should be constructed with the help of the Europeans and the support of Brazil, Turkey and the IAEA; the EU could offer close partnership in the energy sector - detailed proposals are already on the table.

Thirdly, as long as the nuclear powers of this world defend their nuclear arsenals, the possession of atomic bombs will always remain a sign of prestige and international power. The discriminatory nature of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation treaty, allowing some states to possess nuclear weapons and others not, was one of the main reasons for states like India never to join the NPT. Up until today it perpetuates existing power structures and leads to a loss of moral authority when arguing for the nuclear non-proliferation. The obligation to disarm that would serve as compensation for this imbalance is still far from being fulfilled. But in the case of atomic bombs, less is more. Every step towards nuclear disarmament is a step towards a nuclear free Iran. It is not by chance that the beginning of Iran's nuclear ambitions in the early 1980s coincides with Israel's nuclear armament in the late 1970s.

Therefore, in the short term, all political pressure should be put towards creating a nuclear-weapons-free-zone in the Middle East. That means in particular, that the US has to pressure Israel to give up its nuclear arsenal in exchange for the internationalization of Iran's nuclear program as described above. Israel should further be encouraged to join the NPT. In the mid- and long-term, complete nuclear disarmament finally has to become a real and priority political goal again. Peace-prize-winning declarations of will are not enough, concrete steps are in order. Topping this list would be the final accomplishment of widespread ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), as well as strong support for the Fissile Materials Cut-off Treaty (FMCT).

Finally, all parties concerned should bear in mind that a nuclear Iran is in nobody's interest. It would be the first time in the world's history that a theocratic and instable regime acquired nuclear weapon capacity, putting traditional strategies of deterrence to the test when a "call from Allah" potentially replaces rational policy decisions. It would destabilize the whole region, strengthening the Iran-supported Hezbollah movement as well as introducing the potential risk of nuclear proliferation among terrorist groups and other non-state actors. Eventually it would bring the whole NPT-Regime into deep crisis. Making political concessions as described above would be a small price to pay in order to avoid such a scenario.

Alexander Pyka is a student at Bucerius Law School, Hamburg.

 

This article is shortlisted for atlantic-community.org's student competition "Ideas with Impact: Policy Workshop 2010" sponsored by the U.S. Mission to Germany.

Read the other shortlisted articles in the category "Iran's Nuclear Program" here.

 

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Tags: | Iran | US | sanctions | nuclear zero |
 
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Niklas  Anzinger

October 29, 2010

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Consider the following critical points:

1. In your view, not the destruction rhetoric of Iran as dangerous, but the "escalation rhetoric of the U.S." is. The U.S. is not a theocracy, no homosexuals are executed, no women get stoned and no religious minorities are persecuted.

2. The NPT is counter-productive to prevent states from getting nuclear armament, as I claimed.

3. Your IAEA reports are selected randomly and are old, as I have already shown. In addition, the IAEA is a politically weak organization.

4. You state that Iran wants to use civilian nuclear energy. The most recent IAEA reports reject that.

5. The states are very different. A nuclear weapon in the hands of Israel is not dangerous for anyone, it is only for deterrence. A nuclear weapon in the hands of Iran would be dangerous because they have announced the destruction of another state. But you see Israel as a problem and not Iran.

6. Treatys do not make policy, states do. Laws are observed by a balance of force – we know that since Thomas Hobbes.

7. It is the policy of concessions since the Iran-trip of Hans-Dietrich Genscher in 1984. What is new about it? Why was this policy not able to stop the nuclear ambitions of Iran.

8. You lose no word about the opposition movement, for you, Iran is a closed block. Since June 2009 there's was nothing going on, what would be worth mentioning?
 
Tobias Heinrich Siegfried Sauer

October 29, 2010

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Dear Alex,

thank you for your interestng article arguing from a legal point of view.

Your basic idea consists of a multilateralization of the nuclear fuel cycle. Unfortunately, similar proposals have been issued and have been rejected, as Iran insists on its own "inalienable" right to enrichment. And, in fact, as you argue, the NPT concedes this right to Iran. So while your proposal seems to be useful and helpfull, one critical point is missing: how to convince Iran? (And, by the way, also Brazil is not very supportive of this idea, as Brazil tries to build up its own enrichment facilities).

Furthermore, your critique of the nuclear order as it exists today is definitely justified, as it is not seen as legitimate anymore in many "non-aligned countries". But a reform of this order seems to be very unlikely in the near future, as does a nuclear-weapons-free-zone in the Middle East. Israel has (understandably) declared, its accession to such a zone would depend on a comprehensive peace-agreement in the Middle East. From Israel's point of view, it seems to be suicidal to give up deterrence capabilities, as long as other countries still claim to destroy it.

In conclusion, I think the multilateralization of the fuel cycle is a useful and necessary element of a transatlatinc strategy, but needs to be complemented by mutual-trust building, by sanctions and incentives.

Tobias
 
Felix F. Seidler

October 29, 2010

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First, I am with you two cases. War rhetoric scares the Iranian population, which is not in anybody´s interest. Furthermore, a military strike will not offer any sustainable solution, rather make things worse.

However, your article completely lacks consideration about Iran´s missile program. Iran has Scud B and C, also known as Shahab 1 + 2, missiles in operational status. Furthermore, Iran has developed the Shahab 3 on its own, which can carry a warhead about 1,300 km. The Shahab 4 (3000-4000km range) is progressed to become operational. Shahab 5 and 6 are planed under cover of Iran´s space program. Anymore, the security importance of satellite launching missiles was well highlighted by Sputnik. It is not a big challenge to replace a satellite by a warhead.

Pakistan, India, North Korea, Israel and the world´s other nuclear power´s arsenals proof that medium range missiles have only one purpose: to carry a nuclear warhead. Therefore, Iran´s ongoing engagement in missile development shows clearly, hence, Teheran will not be willing to make any kind of enduring deal. Hence, Teheran probably will accept concessions made to buy time.

Certainly, a multilaterized nuclear fuel cycle is a pretty good idea, which I generally agree with. But the possibility for realization is highly questionable. Any enrichment facility outside Iran would raise the question for transportation of nuclear materials. Immense protests worldwide by environmental protection activists would occur, which especially Western politicians could not ignore. Furthermore, how should the nuclear material be transported? Transport by plane would be impossible, because of the risk and fatal consequences of crash. Same is with sea transport. Finally, the option is transport by train, which would require massive invests in the region´s railway structure. By the way, such investments could have a lot of positive side effects. However the materials would be transport, the high risk of terrorist attacks in the region has to be considered as well. Hence, any nuclear enrichment outside Iran is highly unlikely.

I also have issue with enrichment inside Iran together with EU and IAEA. Imagine that Iran could easily cancel such a deal and force all IAEA and EU staff to leave the country. In the past, Iran has played cats and mouse with the international community, especially in case of enrichment. Why should Iran enduringly change the behavior? Any kind of deal would have to consider the missile program as well. As long as Iran is working on long range missiles, as long there is a considerable evidence of other intentions than civilian use.

As a last remark, an Israel giving up its nuclear arsenal is not about to happen. Please read the article below. Israelis consider a nuclear armed Iran as the biggest threat since the Shoa. Therefore, Israel will sustain its life insurance. (With Dolphin submarines as a second strike capability delivered and partly paid by Germany).

Goldberg, Jeffrey (2010): The Point of No Return, IN: The Atlantic, 306 (2010), No. 2, 56-69.
 
Alexander  Pyka

October 29, 2010

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Dear Niklas, thank you for your critique which I is - as Felix put it earlier - highly considerable. First of all, I want to note that naturally my article - as probably most here - does not constitute a comprehensive approach that would not have to be accompanied by others. We read many interesting proposals regarding internal opposition/different factions etc. which - as far as they go towards incentives and dialogue rather than regime change - I fully support. The common goal remains: Iran shall not have a nuclear bomb. My argument only is that not all courses of action are justified to achieve this and that we have to take into account Iran's right to use nuclear technology for peaceful purposes. Some form of solution needs to be found for this.

I already commented on the relevance of international law in this matter and can only repeat that I do not perceive this issue to be "monolithic" either.

Also IAEA-Doc. GOV/2010/46 (Sept 2010) states: "[the IAEA] remains concerned about the possible existence"; "Agency continues to verify the non-diversion of declared nuclear material in Iran, Iran has not provided the necessary cooperation to permit the Agency to confirm that all nuclear material in Iran is in peaceful activities" - e.g. this report does not change the argument that within the NPT system - where Iran is only required to give access to declared facilities - a legal case is hard to make. I am aware of the change in that situation through the UNSC-Res. but I also want to trigger some understanding why from an Iranian point of view these resolutions remain questionable.


Again regarding Israel's nuclear armament - and I am aware that this is a provocative, controversial statement - I remain with my point of view: the non-NPT states Israel, Pakistan and India (the first and latter continiously supported in its nuclear efforts by the US) receiving a special treatment does lead to some problems, not only in legitimacy. The UNSC would have (had) the power to establish sanctions here as well, it did not. Also, for the NWS, we all know of the obligation to disarm in Art. VI NPT (which was reaffirmed by the ICJ in its advisory opinion regarding the use of nuclear weapons) and how nobody seems to bother with fulfilling this either. The ultimate goal must be - on a broad scale - to abolish nuclear weapons as a whole and at some point the Israeli arsenal will be on the table. With - from an Iranian perspective - hostile powers and American military presence in all directions, we have to take Iran's security concerns seriously in order to come to a solution. The direction of Iran's rethoric towards local politics was already dealt with in great extent by many good comments of others, which I continiously support.


Finally again: I very much look forward to gain a perspective that includes the view of political science more, as I already have in the interesting debates during the last days. In writing a common policy recommendation - which I still perceive as the goal of this exercise - I hope that an interdisciplinary approach can add to the debate, even this late in the discussion.
 
Paul-Robert  Lookman

October 29, 2010

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Once more, an excellent article with constructive and helpful ideas to break the deadlock in a potentially dangerous situation. It is interesting to see that the author - unlike most of his “colleagues” – does not only focus on international law, but also approaches “the problem” from a regional perspective.

A key point in the author’s rationale seems to be: if Iran is pursuing a nuclear capability, that is not only in order to acquire “a sign of prestige and international power”, but also to counter the threat by Israel, a key player in region with sophisticated conventional and nuclear arms. Where the author argues that UNSC resolutions pressing Iran to suspend its programme seem legally questionable, perhaps he could have added that these resolutions could only be adopted after heavy arms twisting by the US.

Like all other authors on this issue on AC, he does not address the wider geopolitical role Iran seems to play, see “Iran’s "Green Wave" Opposition and its Ties to Global Geopolitics” (http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=21584).
 
Niklas  Anzinger

October 29, 2010

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1. Again, the negative component of your argument would be: (P 1) If is doesn´t correspond with the law, we can´t do it. (P 2)The law says, we can´t prevent Iran from getting the nuclear bomb. (C 1/2) Conclusion: We can´t prevent Iran from getting a nuclear bomb.

Your claim is neccessarily: (P 3) war is worse than a nuclear armed Iran. (P 4) But a nuclear armed Iran i s war - give the Israeli perspective, we heard about from Jeffrey Goldberg.

(C 3/4) Conclusion: P 3 and P 4 are a contradiction.

Not to repeat my statements, (C 3/4) but this is inconsistent with an approach that claims a nuclear armed Iran as the worst-case scenario. I think, my argument in this case is obviously valid (if not, please let me know). Therefore, we have to conclude: An approach which insinsts on international law, mutual agreement and the hope of reciprocal action to prevent war in the first place neccessarily can´t operate with the premise of a nuclear armed Iran as a worst-case scenario. Would you give me that argument?

In that case again, if we underestimate the Iranian ambitions (and I showed overwhelming indices, that this would be inaccurate) then would be confronted with a nighmare Middle-East.

So: (P 5) An approach without claiming a nuclear armed Iran as a worst case scenario would be extremely risky for all the people in the Middle and Central East. (P 6 from C 3/4) Your approach neccessarily doesn´t claim a nuclear armed Iran as a worst-case scenario. (C 5/6) Your approach is extremely risky for all the people in the Middle and Central East.

You can object P 5 if you want. But I think I made a lot of arguments for P 5.

2. The argument of the NPT has already been attached:

Israel states that they will not give up their nuclear armament if they don´t have a serious peace comittment in the Middle East. Given the history, this is a considerably understandable argument. Nevertheless it is given, you would habe to object this argument. But instead you could recognize, that the real threat to peace and security is Iran. There is simply no serious argument that indicates Israels nuclear ability a greater threat to peace in the Middle East. Therefore one has to adress the Iranian issue first. In this case one would be accurate with the Israeli theorem, which is, as shown, considerably valid.
 
Niklas  Anzinger

October 29, 2010

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Mr. Lookman attached an important point: If Israel is the main impediment for peace in the Middle East, my whole argument would indeed be invalid.

But that is not a serious position to claim. Leave that claim to the anti-Zionists.
 
Paul-Robert  Lookman

October 29, 2010

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Mr Anzinger, as I mentioned in my comment of 13 August 2010 on the editor team’s article “Will Israel Launch an Air Strike Against Iran?”, Goldberg is a dangerous war monger. A comment that must have coincided with that of a few others on AC, given the 4 points that it yielded. You will find my comment as the first reaction on: http://www.atlantic-community.org/index/Open_Think_Tank_Article/Wil...

Perhaps you have some better founded arguments for your claim?

And I am not sure what you mean by "But that is not a serious position to claim. Leave that claim to the anti-Zionists". What is wrong with arguing against an occuping state that is consistently supported by the world's sole superpower in every respect: military, diplomatic, economical? A nation which does not take any UNSC resolution seriously (in which it is supported by the same sole superpower), but has yet been established by the grace of the international community which is represented by the same UN...

To me, the rule of (international) law must apply to all nations, large and small. Some may argue that such a stand is naive, but then what is the use of international law, international institutions, which are used to carry out military attacks under the flag of the UN such as that in Aghanistan, but seem irrelevant in cases which do not satisfy "national interest" of almighty US of A? I don't suppose Mr Pyka will disagree when I say that international law is not a recipe book to choose from.
 
Niklas  Anzinger

October 29, 2010

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Mr. Lookman, this is another issue. Your sentiments towards the state of Israel show transparently your biased view.

We won´t discuss this here and we won´t find an agreement in this discussion. If you state Israel as the aggressor then my argument is invalid. I give you the argument.

If the others see it your way, then their argumentation is also valid. I would be interested in the others view of this particular logic.
 
Paul-Robert  Lookman

October 29, 2010

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Mr Anzinger: No Sir, in my view this is not a different issue. A nuclear armed Israel in the region has everything to do with the regional balance of power and the potential aim for Iran to get a nuclear capability to restore that balance.

I have no “sentiments”, I merely state facts. You have of course every right to decline to “discuss this here”, but then I wonder why you would invite the judgment from the “jury”, i.e. the AC readership. The points I raise are relevant to the debate, or they are not…

Did you already study the article “Iran’s "Green Wave" Opposition and its Ties to Global Geopolitics” http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=21584)? What is your opinion?
 
Niklas  Anzinger

October 29, 2010

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Pardon, I meant:

It is the difference between the assessment that neither Israel or Iran is the impediment to peace in the region that is the core of this logic.

In my view, stating that Israel is a threat is completely absurd. That is my premise for the discussion - we are meeting an essential point here. I just want a an approval or an rejection of this thesis from the others. Tertium non datur. (Otherwise you have to find a contradiction in my argument.)

Perhaps if we have the assessment of the others in that cause we can dispute in detail.
 
Paul-Robert  Lookman

October 29, 2010

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Mr Anzinger: I do apologize, I forgot to suggest that you perhaps take the trouble to also taka a look at “The Israel Lobby” by John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt, which you will find at London Review of Books, see http://www.lrb.co.uk/v28/n06/john-mearsheimer/the-israel-lobby. In an earlier reaction to one of my comments, you seem to have indicated that you are not aware of any such Lobby.

EDITORIAL TEAM: No more comments on Israel please, we had plenty. You are repeating yourself here and in the comment section of other articles. It get's repetitive. The topic is Iran. Please focus on Alexander Pyka's article and especially the question of this competition, which is “What could a successful strategy for the transatlantic partners to overcome the deadlock on Iran's nuclear program look like?”
 
Paul-Robert  Lookman

October 29, 2010

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Editorial Team:

Up to you of course to make the rules on this open think tank. However, I was just wondering how one can address the issue “What could a successful strategy for the transatlantic partners to overcome the deadlock on Iran's nuclear program look like?” without mentioning Israel, especially where Mr Pyka has expressly argued “ … that the US has to pressure Israel to give up its nuclear arsenal in exchange for the internationalization of Iran's nuclear program as described above. Israel should further be encouraged to join the NPT”? I count the word Israel in his piece 4 times, and in the subsequent comments 25 times. Some enlightenment of your request would be appreciated.
 
Felix F. Seidler

October 29, 2010

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I would to come back on Alexander´s plea for an "interdisciplinary approach."

My proposal was to engage with the Iranian population and opposition. I argued, that the regime, which I considered as the major problem, has to disappear. My favored mean continues to be communication.

However, Alexander´s position was broadly focused on “the framework of legality/international law”.

During the discussion, both of our positions often seemed to be contrary. Although I guess our disagreements will remain in some cases, I think we could generally agree on the following policy.

Therefore, my argument is to combine both approaches. “Interdisciplinary”, as Alexander wrote.

Iran did not stick to international law in a number cases mentioned in the whole discussion, which I will not repeat in here. Thus, my proposal is to enforce communication to the Iranian population about those circumstances. People need to know about the rights Iran has in international on the one hand, but on the other have to get clear evidence about Iran´s violations of international law. Iranians have to know that a government sticking to international law offers tremendously more benefits, than a regime constantly violating international in nuclear issues or also in case of state sponsored terrorism. Such an approach may not change the situation immediately, but we all have to keep in mind how important the information are, which tomorrow´s leaders achieve.
 
Nabi  Sonboli

October 29, 2010

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UN resolutions on one side emphasize that Iran has the right to develop peace full nuclear technology and on the other side ask for suspension of the same peaceful activities that are under IAEA supervision. If an activity is peaceful, no threat stems from that and there is no reason to ask for its postponement for indefinite period of so called confidence-building. From the beginning the US just wanted to put more pressure on Iran and so politicized the Iranian technical nuclear case. It is 20 years that they mention that with next two years Iran will reach to nuclear weapons. If they were right, Iran must have more than 10 nuclear bombs, by now.
Iran succeeded in solving the technical dimensions of the problem within a modality agreed upon with IAEA. After 8 years of investigation, IAEA have not found any thing to support diversion toward non-peaceful use of nuclear technology in Iranian nuclear activities. What they ask for is implementation of additional protocol by Iran. Iran has always been ready to do that, but as a mutual confidence building measure. It is the US and its allies that have escalated the conflict. Iran is able to defend itself and see no reason to appease the US. What is necessary is de-escalation and taking wrong steps back within a face saving mechanism. And that’s no concession to Iran but a concession to the US.
 
Felix  Haass

October 29, 2010

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Alexander, thanks for your very thoughtful contribution to this debate which adds a very much needed legal perspective to the discussion.

I have seen a lot of related points in this discussion so far. Thus, I want to summarize them and roughly put them in a more systematic order to get the debate more focused.

For this purpose I modify the framework that I outlined earlier in the discussion on Tobias’ paper. I think it is still useful for arranging the different points and recommendations made in this debate, but has to be modified nonetheless. Thus I would divide the recommendations into four broader categories, “Engagement”, “Sanctions”, “The Context” and “Opposition Movement”. Here you find the argument as outlined in the various essays (apologies for getting arguments&names wrong)

Engagement

This is where a clear-cut incentive package has to be formulated. Incentives include:

- Multilateralization of the Fuel Cycle (Alexander)

- WTO accession (Tobias)

- Assistance in the energy sector maybe even including nuclear cooperation (Tobias)

- Lifting the sanctions (put forward by most of the participants in this workshop)

- Make clear to Iran what it has to do in order to reap the benefits of a certain parts of the incentive package (or all of them), i.e. => clear benchmarks (Tobias & Sascha)

- Start small. Do not aim for a “grand bargain” from the outset but rather go and see what is possible at first and what is not. (Sascha)

Sascha has highlighted the importance of a step-by-step, reciprocal approach, so the sequencing of these proposals is probably crucial.

>Sanctions

- Set up a “crippling” sanctions regime to topple the regime (Niklas)

- “Smarter” targeting of current sanctions regime, specifically target components of the nuclear program which might slow it down (Niklas)

-Clarify what the sanctions are about and that are aimed at preventing Iran from building a nuclear weapon, and to strip it off its right to nuclear energy. (Felix H.)

- Make sure the sanctions that are employed remain in a legal framework (Alexander)

The Context/The psychological dimension

Here is where I would locate a lot of the recommendations made during the debate. However some may originally have been intended as incentives by their authors, and yes, the line is certainly blurry. Some of these proposals could be actually considered both – steps to create trust and incentives.

- Create a regional institution for the Middle East in order to institutionally “lock in” the conflict parties and create a negotiation forum (Sascha , Felix H.)

- Take the military option of the table. (Almost all of the participants have stressed that point)

- Foster academic exchange, e.g. by allowing Iranians take the TOEFL; foster religious exchange (Sascha, Felix H.)

- Nuclear swap deal for the Tehran Research Reactor (Sascha)

- Acknowledge Iran’s right to nuclear energy (Tobias, Alexander)

- Acknowledge Iran’s rich history and address grievances between the U.S. and Iran, e.g. apologies (Tobias, Felix H., Sascha)

- Increase nuclear disarmament efforts by the NW states (Alexander)

- Create a friendly media environment (Felix H.)

- Foster work of Iranian-Western NGOS but also Moderate Muslim-Iranian NGOs (Felix H.)

- Create a Nuclear Weapons Free Zone in the Middle East

Here again, some steps are suited to be taken quite early in the process, others have to be taken only further down the road.

The Opposition Movement

Niklas and Felix S. most emphatically highlighted this point but it’s found throughout most of the other essays too. Recommendations include:

- Invite opposition leaders to discussions (Niklas)

- Support the opposition movement rhetorically (Felix S.) and financially (Niklas)

- Cut all diplomatic relations (Niklas)

- Support the Internet as a tool of political resistance in Iran (Felix S.)

- Support other media in Iran (Felix S.)


Of course, some of these proposals may be contradictory and maybe even mutually exclusive but I guess it’s more useful to summarize them and systematically organize them before we procede with the discussion.

Furthermore, I observed two main problems with implementing these strategies that should be highlighted by any recommendation strategy:

1. Domestic opposition in U.S. and Iran: Both sides don’t have much leeway domestically to offer proposals or to give concessions (U.S. => right wing opposition, probably worse after the midterms but also hawkish Democrats; Iran=>conservative clerics/strengthened position of the IRGC). Sascha proposed a strategy of small steps which might be able to deal with this problem (I, for my part, do think so) but maybe not.

2. Israel. As Niklas has correctly pointed out, we do not know if and/or when Israel is going to attack Iran. Any recommendations have to take that “wild card” into account and address this problem. Here again, some of the proposals summarized above might actually help to assuage Israel’s position against Iran.

In conclusion, I want to apologize if forgot any argument by anybody and if I have credited you incorrectly with an argument you have not made at all. Also, this list – or division of recommendations into 4 groups – is not meant to be the final word on the debate, quite the opposite. I would very much like you to comment, criticize and complement this list.
 
Sascha  Lohmann

October 29, 2010

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Dear Mr. Sonboli,

First of all I want to warmly welcome you to our discussion. I think it is absolutely great to actually have an Iranian counterpart, which I do not mean literally of course (but as you might have experienced, this debate oftentimes gets fairly heated), participatig in our discussion. But let's get serious.

Because you brought up the topic of the respective UNSC resolutions in your post above, I would be very interested in your assessment about the actual reasons of Iran's non-compliance in regard to transparency (secret facilities, treatment of inspectors)? I do not want to delve into the issue of NPT safeguards or obligations at this point but I was thinking of Iraq where no WMD were ever found but whose leader did not offensively opposed this allegation even though he must have been well aware of the consequences.

I am asking because this might be an important point for further discussing how to apply incentives based on an approach of 'concrete reciprocity'. From articles by David Kay (a former weapon inspector) I got a slight impression about the complexity of the issue (he is a political scientist by training and has recently argued against a multilateral inspection regime in Iran). Do you think this has been a decision based on tactical or rather psychological grounds?

I am looking forward to your answer.
 
Felix F. Seidler

October 29, 2010

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Dear Felix,

Thank you for the excellent summary and all the work.

As I pointed out in another comment, multilateralization of the fuel cycle is neither realistic, nor a useful option. This includes “nuclear cooperation”. Thus, I would exclude those tow recommendations from your package. Anyhow, I can deal with all the other proposals made in cases of engagement, sanctions and opposition movement.

But I have issues with “The Context/The psychological dimension”.

Locking conflict parties by a regional security institution is a pretty good idea. However, setting up a new institution will be a very difficult political process. There will be seriously long and though negotiations about the institution before it will be able to start working. Hence, I recommend using an existing organization, where Iran is already member. Thus, a new dialogue forum under the umbrella of the Organization of the Islamic Conference should be a valuable option.

Any kind of “nuclear swap deal” is no preferable option, because it raises the transportation issue, as I already mentioned.

Finally, nuclear disarmament worldwide is an idealistic goal very important to go for. However, according to currently running nuclear armament projects in the US (modernization of B-61 nuclear warheads), Russia (Bulava missile, Topol-M missile, Borei class SSBN), France (Triomphant class SSBN) and China (diverse missile projects, Jin class SSBN) we should stay realistic.
 
Niklas  Anzinger

October 29, 2010

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Dear Felix,

I thank you very much for the time you took to make such a detailed summary. I guess all disputant made clarified their claims.

However, in respect to our disagreements (especially from my side), I would add another section “criticism”. Please don´t judge me as unyielding, but I think this paper wouldn´t give an adequate impression of our disagreements.

This section includes positions the authors claim to be inconsistent with all the other points in the paper. Therefore, I will bring up my criticism in brief words.

- Criticism on the claim “Take the military option of the table”: One author argued that this would be inconsistent with a premise that sets a nuclear armed Iran as the worst-case scenario. All conclusions derived from a premise “war is the worst-case scenario” would be inconsistent given the security needs of the state of Israel and the interests of other nation states in the region. Approaches dealing with that premise fail to meet the “What if …” – objection. What if approach x fails to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear power? The author argued that these approaches lead to war because they would leave Israel no other choice, if the approaches fail. The other states in the region (Egypt, Saudi-Arabia) are also like to backup an ally against Iran. (Niklas)

- Criticism of an approach that assesses Iran as a normal nation state with interests in economic development, political prestige and security. One author claimed that the interests of the Iranian regime are: export of the revolution, building an Islamic state and destruction of Israel. The author criticized that the other approaches fail to address the problems, because of a wrong assessment of the regime´s character. (Niklas)

These are the main contradictory points. If these are taken into account, I would be satisfied. I think Felix S. would also formulate a similar point in this section taking into account his criticism on idealistic approaches.

Anyway, I would like to discuss further in another section – I will reformulate my concerns in Sascha´s section.
 
Tobias Heinrich Siegfried Sauer

October 30, 2010

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Dear Felix,

thank you for the summary you have compiled out of this many proposals an ideas. I think you've done a great job.

I guess everybody has some points missing (I would like to mention incentives directed predominantely at the population instead of the regime), but the framework is convincing.

As regarding mutual exclusive aspects of this discussion, we could include them by differentiating between issues agreed on by a majority and others agreed on by a minority. By doing so we could offer a full picture while at the same time highlighting which aspects have gained broad consensus. With you, I agree that many proposals are not mutual exclusive but support each other.

Thank you again for your efforts!
Tobias
 
Sascha  Lohmann

October 30, 2010

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Thanks to Felix who compiled the core proposals derived from our respective positions, I want to stress Tobias’ suggestion and differentiate between those that a majority can agree upon and those that are supported by a minority. Without devaluing the quality of the minority’s proposals, I think it is crucial to not stop with just agreeing on a list of recommendations but also to discuss how they can be brought together into one coherent framework.

More precisely, the majority’s position preferring a strategy of engagement that focuses on incentives and mutual trust building has now to be operationalized in order to be of any merit for policy makers. More generally, the task should be to agree upon a framework (e.g. based on the principle of concrete reciprocity) and fill it with substance (the proposed positive and negative incentives).

Therefore, the whole complex of engagement could serve as the basis of our considerations. As sanctions are already in place (and are indeed biting) we should employ them as a form of negative incentives that could be lifted as more and more progress occurs (concrete reciprocity). This might also satisfy Niklas’ and Felix F.’s concerns about the willingness of the political leadership to come to an agreement. If we offer things to the Iranian negotiators that they want, it would be on their side to justify themselves in case they decline the offer. This seems to be the only way forward.

The single propositions (substance) such as the multilateralization of the fuel cycle (Alexander) or other means should be brought into an order that accounts for their respective importance for both sides. The most important incentives should be employed at the end. In this regard, I would like to add the unfreezing of Iranian assets that were seized in the wake of the hostage crisis as another incentive for negotiations. Moreover, we could think about cooperation in the realm of construction work technology as Iran is situated in a region with a constantly high earthquake risk. These additional propositions make clear that Iran has a lot of things that the West could offer and vice versa, so we should make intelligent use of that fact.

This is just a start. The technical details of such a plan need further specification and careful adjustment in order to add up to a clear negotiating tool that takes into account the demands on both sides.
 
Sascha  Lohmann

October 30, 2010

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Dear Alexander,

Apart from the fact that I strongly support your claim to regard international law, I think another issue you raised which is inherently related to it deserves further attention. It is the goal of keeping the Middle East a nuclear-weapons-free-zone. In elaborating on the details of an engagement policy we should be aware of the fact that the US President made nuclear non-proliferation the grand foreign policy theme of his presidency.

Several issues of our debate are hereby concerned: First, Israel's, Pakistan's and India's accession to the NPT could be an important step to enhance Western credibility. Secondly, nuclear disarmament should be stressed as the foremost reason why the West opposes an Iranian bomb. Even though other arguments would still be possible, such as a theoretical attack against other countries, the outcome would be the same: An Iranian bomb is not acceptable under any circumstances. Thirdly, unilateral sanctions seem to be legal as UNSC resolution 1929 included several so-called "hooks" on which these measures were eventually based (see http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/10/world/middleeast/10sanctions.html). Lastly, no IAEA report has

Concerning another point, I think the US rhetoric toward Iran has fundamentally changed under the current US government. What has mainly stayed the same was the actual strategic approach which closely samples that of Bush’s second term to a great extend. But consider Obama’s outreached hand which was not a mere gesture. He sent to letters to Supreme Leader Khamenei and offered negotiations about the entire spectrum of US-Iranian relations. The failure should not be interpreted as the impracticality of engagement at all. Rather, this made clear that an approach centered around incentives, embedded in a broader framework of cooperation, is ia prerequisite to make this strategy successful.

Moreover, I want to object to Felix F.’s comment that nuclear cooperation should not be part of any proposal. We should be well aware of the tremendous importance of nuclear energy for Iran, henceforth, any deal has to ultimately address this issue. To say that only because negotiations about an institutional framework that lock both sides in will be difficult and should therefore take place within an organization such as the Organization of the Islamic Conference, appears to be highly unrealistic and is definitely not the way forward. But the cooperation of such an institution could surely add to trust building on the Iranian side. It would be a sign that non-Western institutions can play a valuable part in the process. Nevertheless, in order to be employed as an incentive, the multilateralization of the fuel cycle has to take place in Iran. Otherwise, it would definitely not be accepted by the Iranian side.

What will be difficult indeed is to include the entire nuclear issue together with confidence-building measure into such a design at the same time.
 
Alexander  Pyka

October 30, 2010

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First of all let me apologize for the radio silence - I am abroad right now and only have occasional access to the Internet. Further, I also do not want to miss the opportunity to thank Felix for the summary of our ideas, which I largely support. And as Sascha already pointed out, it would be more than interesting to hear more Iranian voices in this regard, as Mr. Sonboli's here and in the discussion of Sascha's article - I would love to welcome you back into the discussion.

Next, I would like to thank Sascha for his comments. I tried to quickly look at what the NYT calls "hooks" in UNSC Res. 1929. Indeed, the resolution contains a passage saying that "nothing in this resolution compels States to take measures or actions exceeding the scope of this resolution, including the use of force or the threat of force" as well as some other language that can be interpreted accordingly. While the resolution thus does not seem to forbid stronger sanctions, I could not find any language that would explicitly enable them either - therefore still rendering them illegal. But this would require a much more in depht analysis and does not lead us anywhere as the moment, so I am willing to stop here; while again stressing that I support the "positive-incentive"-fraction on this.

Secondly, some further comments on multilateralization: I support Sascha's view that the uranium enrichment has to take place in Iran in order to be an effective bargaining chip. The IAEA could control the flow of material (applying the new "safeguard-by-design" models etc) while partner NWS-countries could control the operation of the facility. Even the already existing enrichment-plants by the Iranians could be used. It is crucial that Iran gets full access to the needed amounts of LEU, for a reasonable prize, under transparent rules and regulations etc. in order to fully erode the argument that unilateral uranium enrichment is necessary for the full capitalization of its right to civil usage of nuclear technology. (I do not know how much we should discuss the technical details since there are numerous existing proposals out there - the MPI in Heidelberg has even already drafted the necessary legal framework (e.g. http://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/diplo/de/Aussenpolitik/Themen/Abrues...); hence we should probably concentrate on how to politically impliment the idea)

Third, a common permanent and continious forum for dialogue - as proposed by some here; please tell me if I am repeating something here - would be a good arena for mutual trust-building. I believe that Iran coming to the EU with the proposition of nuclear talks (Joerg's mail) is a sign that shows that here lies the so far best potential for a mutually accepted intermediary. Such forum could also do good preparatory work for the conference on the establishment of a nuclear free zone in the middle east, as it was planned during the last NPT-review conference for 2012. Further, this could also be the forum for the EU to propose Tobias' recommendation for a stronger co-operation in the energy field, which I strongly support and which in my mind should include renewable energies.
 
Niklas  Anzinger

October 30, 2010

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Dear Alexander,

Your argument is again: We have no legal ways to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear power. We should therefore enforce cooperation with Iran.

Consider the absurdity of this project: According to this logic the Zimbabwean just would have to carry out plans for nuclear armament and call for the destruction of Israel to get your interest for a mutual companionship.

Incentives for cooperation should be the compliance of human rights, of course in fact there are obviously mostly economic reasons. But indeed you explicitly call for incentives with a state that promotes terror, oppresses its citizens and calls for the destruction of an ally member.

Is it really that hard to understand?

Consider the bias of the logic of international law. It enforces no measures to end the genocide in Darfur, while it protects the nuclear ambitions of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

I am sorry for interrupting the community consensus again. This discussion states the Islamic Republic of Iran just as a hollow, a projection of its regional occurrence and a cost-benefit representation of the use of its resources. You systematically fog the attributes of the real appearance of the regime in order to make your standard-approaches a valid argument. Please consider my argument again:

An argument, why the military option should not be set off the table:

The negative component of the claimant´s argument would be: (P 1) If it doesn´t correspond with the law, we can´t do it. (P 2) The law says, we can´t enforce the measures to prevent Iran from getting the nuclear bomb. (C 1/2) Conclusion: We can´t prevent Iran from getting a nuclear bomb.

The claim is necessarily: (P 3) War is worse than a nuclear armed Iran. (P 4) But a nuclear armed Iran i s war - given the Israeli security interests and their neighbor´s potential nuclear armament.

(C 3/4) Conclusion: P 3 and P 4 are a contradiction.

The premise (P 5) “prevent war in the first place” is obviously inconsistent with the (P 6) military option, if their associated approaches (international law, mutual agreement and concrete-reciprocity policy) fail.

(C 3/4) Therefore, an approach which insists on international law, mutual agreement and the hope of reciprocal action to (P 3) prevent war in the first place is inconsistent with an approach that claims a nuclear armed Iran as the worst-case scenario.

In that case again, if we underestimate the Iranian ambitions (and there are overwhelming indices, that this would be inaccurate) then we would be confronted with a nightmare Middle-East.

Thus: (P 7) an approach without claiming a nuclear armed Iran as a worst case scenario would be extremely risky for all the people in the Middle East. (P 8 from C 3/4) An approach stating P 3 necessarily doesn´t claim (P 9) a nuclear armed Iran as a worst-case scenario. (C 7/8) An approach stating P 3 is thus extremely risky for the stability in the Middle East.
In contrast to the other approaches, a regime-change strategy insisting on the premise (P 9) “prevent a nuclear armed Iran in the first place” offers a predictable approach without illusions.

In addition, ask yourself why anti-Zionists and regime-propagandists (Nabi writes for the pro-regime newspaper “Tehran Times”) applaud to your arguments.

Sadly, Sascha does not consider my arguments as worth noticing.
 
Nabi  Sonboli

October 30, 2010

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Why engagement, not isolation?
The main question is how to overcome the current deadlock? Firs we need to understand that why current deadlock has been created. In sum the current stalemate emerged gradually after transatlantic partners, especially the US, did not appreciate Iran’s cooperation both on regional issues and the nuclear issue. Regionally, Iran cooperated with transatlantic partners in Both Afghanistan and Iraq to bring peace and stability there. Finally she was rewarded as a member of “axis of evil”. In nuclear issue, Iran first opened all its sites to IAEA investigation, implemented the additional protocol voluntarily for more between 2003-2005 five. Finally EU3 provided an empty package for Iran and asked Iran to postpone all its nuclear activities, and threatened Iran with isolation and UNSC resolutions. Some of them openly neglected even Iranian right to have peaceful nuclear technology. These positions strengthened Iran mistrust toward the west and Iran restarted its nuclear program while still the reformist government was in power and the new government continued the activities. In this way “more and more resolutions passed and more and more centrifuges installed”. This is the process that led to current deadlock.
Current situation: Now Iran has achieved what it has been looking for: to master in peaceful nuclear technology to satisfy its needs both in terms of fuel for nuclear power plant and isotope for medical purposes. Thus, from Iranian point of view everything is going on under IAEA supervision and investigation peacefully the case like many other nuclear programs around the world is a normal one. There is no difference even between Iran and IAEA on this issue. The main problem is the possibility of existence of unannounced facilities and the intention and possible diversion in future as the technology is dual use. These concerns are not real. As I have already mentioned, diversion is not possible under IAEA observation and If Iran had followed such a process the Agency could find it in past activities. With regard to the intention, no judiciary punishes a person for possible crimes in future. Furthermore, EU-US participation in the program as an objective guarantee for non-diversion is the best solution.
Dear Niklas, isolation and sanction have been the strategies that have led to current deadlock, their continuation will prolong the problem not solve it. It seems to me that those who have supported isolation and sanction and created huge problems for everyone, have not bothered themselves to look at the Iranian map and think a few minute realistically. Iran has 15+1 neighbors (the US is our biggest neighbor) and is surrounded by all international problems and crises in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Central Asia, Caucasia, and Middle East and has strong relations with them and enough influence in all these countries and regions. You cannot solve any problem their without Iranian cooperation. Isolation of such a country not only is not possible, but also is destructive for EU and US. Unfortunately, all the problems in Iranian surroundings are interconnected and finding a solution is not so easy. Isolation just intensifies the problems in these regions, benefit Al-Qaida and Extremists, and increase the pressure on EU and US. As she has showed its cooperation in Afghanistan and Iraq, Iran for its own benefit is part of the solutions, it is a big mistake to turn it into part of the problems.
Engagement is the only realistic solution. Through engagement with Iran, transatlantic partners can gradually solve regional problems and prepare appropriate ground for regional social, economic and political development.
As the US benefited from peace, security, and development in Europe through multilateral cooperation after the Second World War, instead of turning the Greater Middle East into a rivalry area between global powers, it is in all benefits to define it as a region of peace and development and concentrate on how to achieve that. If sustainable peace and comprehensive development is the main target for international community, engagement and participation of Iran as the biggest and most influential country in the region is a must.
 
Niklas  Anzinger

October 31, 2010

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Nabi, as the current wikileaks-documents show, Iran participated in enourmous terrorist uprisings both in Iraq and Afghanistan (of course this was known before), they are boycotting peace, security, and development in the region.

The more cooperation with the Iranian regime you seek, the more terror, instability and conflict you get. This should be the experience of almost 25 years of Iranian-European diplomacy. The people in Iran and the region are suffering from that horrific outcome. The deadlock is the persisstance of the Europeans to insist on dialogue-strategies.
 
Nabi  Sonboli

October 31, 2010

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Editorial Team
the comment titled "Why engagement, not isolation?" is for Mr. Anzinger. Please keep it there. The problem with the format of the debate is that it is difficult to follow all comments together.

Editorial Team: You posted that comment five times, That's why it was deleted four times. Repetitions don't help a debate. The comment is still here:
http://www.atlantic-community.org/index/articles/view/Political_Con...

And you can link to that comment, if you would like to refer to it. Thank you for your contributions!


 
Tobias Heinrich Siegfried Sauer

October 31, 2010

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Dear Mr. Sonboli

thank you for participating in this debate and for contributing with a view from Tehran.

As you mentioned also before, mutual trust building is definitely an essential element of any dialogue leading to peace and security in the Middle East. But it is worth to underline that in fact mutual (!) trust building is important. That means that while the U.S. and the EU should alter their strategy, also Iran has to change its actual policy. If we look at the facts, Iran has often not cooperated fully with the IAEA (in almost all reports, the IAEA expresses to be concerned about certain aspects of the Iranian nuclear program and asks for more information in order to be able to declare that the program only serves peaceful purposes) or only when aspects of the Iranian program have become public anyway (I don't want to mention the long list of technologies imported, facilites installed and isotoped produced here). So, a strategy of future engagement would include Iranian participation as well; it is not a one-way-street. As you are contributing from Tehran: What could be an important "fist" and "second" step in a new approach that brings some fresh air in the debate between the P5+1 and Iran? What signs and actions from the west would help, and what would Iran do (based on concrete reciprocity)? I'm very interested in your answer!

Tobias Sauer
 
Tobias Heinrich Siegfried Sauer

October 31, 2010

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Dear Niklas,

thank you for explaining your argument again. As we already noted elsewhere, our premises are not completely congruent. It starts at the very beginning: Your P2, for example, is not entirely correct. The Security Council already declared the Iranian program as a threat to international peace and security (as early as 2006, if I remember it correctly) but so far did not authorize military measures. But if an Iranian program gets closer to the actual construction of a bomb, it is not impossible that the Security Council votes for a military option. The second problem with this premise is that the Security Council in fact did decide on measures to prevent such a development. The Council opted for economic sanctions. So P1 and P2 lead to a very different C1/2, one that allows to prevent Iran from getting a bomb by non-military means. As some of us have argued elsewhere, incentives could be part of a renewed strategy (being legal and ment to prevent Iran from getting the bomb). Also, you are very secure that a military strike would definitely end such a program. That could be wishful thinking as well - we don't know what happens next, and we don't even know if such a strike would be effective - and the extremely high costs (humanitarian, political, economic) of such a strike are not even mentioned so far.

But instead of repeating our arguments, we could agree to include your proposal as a minority-opinion (that does not mean: worse or unsuccesful or something like that) in the overall proposal. What do you think? (I ask as it seems unlikely that we find an easy compromise here...)

Tobias
 
Niklas  Anzinger

October 31, 2010

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Dear Tobias,

just to clarify that point: My argument addressed an approach, you all confirmed: set the military option off the table - I did just refer to those, who claim this point and did not specify in any institution (where have I termed the Security Council?). Therefore, your objection is wrong.
 
Niklas  Anzinger

October 31, 2010

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Oh, and in addition you could seriously object my arguments: an approach "set the military option off the table" neccessarily has no exit-strategy (What if approach x fails, and Iran will not react?) and I therefore I stated, that this is playing with fire built on the naive hope that the Iranian regime reacts to the incentives.
 
Tobias Heinrich Siegfried Sauer

October 31, 2010

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Dear Niklas,

as I stated in my proposal, the military option is an ultima ratio, but it should (in my view) not be considered as the first strategy to be pursued.

Tobias
 
Niklas  Anzinger

October 31, 2010

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Then you are with me.
 
Unregistered User

November 3, 2010

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Mr. Sonboli,
Two statements and a question you can answer for the discussion of the other participants of this forum:
1. You state that engagement with the Islamic Republic would lead to peace and development in the Middle East. But the only slight change of behaviour we know of the Iranian regime proves the opposite: Until the end of the nineties, the IRI murdered opponents also in Western exile. This only stopped when a German court in 1997 - against massive pressure by the German state - named the heads of the IRI (Khamenei, Rafsanjani et al.) as the responsible men behind the "Mykonos" murders of Iranian exile members in Berlin in 1992. The verdict forced the German state for a short time to disrupt its good relations to Teheran - a development feared by the IRI. So to continue its assassination campaign in Germany and other European countries would have endangered its ties with Germany. The price was simply too high.
2. As all Islamists, the IRI leaders see Islam as a quite simple art of warfare: if your adversary retreats, then attack, if he counterattacks successfully, then retreat temporarily. Just see what Israel has gained with retreating from Lebanon and Gaza: more and more terror and rockets made in Iran.
But the problem is now, that the regime has even lost its temporary retreat options: every time the pressure on the Iranian people was eased a bit, Iranians took advantage of this in revolts against the regime. The Khatami reformist option is dead. Aggression, Terror inside and outside Iran and anti-Semitism are the last resorts of the regime.
3. What should engagement and negotiations be about?
You talk of the many neighbours the Iranian regime allegedly has to fear. Israel is not a direct neighbour. The mortal enmity of the regime to the Jewish state has nothing to do with “national” or “security” interests. It is only based on ideology. So: Is it negotiable that the IRI could cease to promote the destruction of Israel?
If not - and this question goes out to all participants of the forum – wouldn’t negotiations between Western countries and the IRI in consequence be about the modalities of Israels disappearance?
 
Nabi  Sonboli

November 5, 2010

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Dear Tobias
As you have correctly emphasized, trust building is mutual and a two-way-street. With regard necessary steps in the new approach, I think there is no reason to announce a peaceful program that is under IAEA observation and investigation as a threat. If I want to use the IAEA terms, the “announced facilities” are under the agencies observation and their activities are peaceful. The first step is that 3+3 takes the same position with regard to them and accepts them. Such a step makes no change on the ground, but sends a message of good will to Tehran that they do not want to deprive the country from having peaceful nuclear technology. The second very important step is to stop sabotage and military threat. They ask transparency on the one hand and on the other make military threats and there are news about sabotage and targeting nuclear scientists in Iran. In such circumstances no wise policy maker endangers the national security of its nation. Iran has announced that it is ready to do more than implementation of Additional protocol. That’s participation of western countries in Iranian nuclear projects. While they are part of the program they are always observing everything and that’s the best confidence building measure.
 
Erica  Mukherjee

November 20, 2010

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I appreciate the author's view of Iran's nuclear program from a non-US perspective. It is true that the US has, and is, engaging in dangerous rhetoric concerning Iran's nuclear program. This is especially troubling since the current administration has been working to undo the damage to America's international image done by the previous one. While the saber-rattling is not as loud as before, the implicit threat still stands: America will not tolerate a nuclear Iran.

What becomes even more troubling about this threat is the fact that the US no longer has a clear vision of its role on the world stage. For instance, a recent opinion poll showed that approximately 60% of Americans support military action in Iran, only 40% of Americans still approved of the war in Afghanistan. When a significant majority of a country is willing to take up a new fight and not willing to finish the old one, it bespeaks of a confused populace and an administration unable to effectively communicate its foreign policy objectives to its people.

With such a murky domestic vision, it is no wonder that the US seems both aggressive and indecisive on the world stage. Keeping in the mind the international legal structure, such as that suggested by the author, would be a good place from which US foreign policy could reconstruct itself.
 

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