The panel discussion, "After the Conventions: The Race to the White House," featured experts who debated the Democratic and Republican campaigns from economic, political, and social perspectives. The event was a joint program of the US Embassy in Berlin and The German Marshall Fund of The United States in cooperation with The Federal State Representation of Rhineland-Palatinate.
The panelists were:
- Dr. Alexander Lennon, editor-in-chief of the Center for Strategic and International Studies' (CSIS) flagship journal, The Washington Quarterly, and a fellow at the CSIS International Security Program.
- Dr. Christoph von Marschall, lead opinion editor at Der Tagesspiegel since 1995 and current US correspondent in Washington.
- Dr. Adam S. Posen, deputy director and senior fellow at the Institute for International Economics in Washington, D.C.
The discussion was moderated by Dr. Constanze Stelzenmüller, director of the German Marshall Fund's Berlin office.
To view an exclusive interview with Dr. Posen highlighting his key economic remarks made during the panel discussion, click on the video link below.
Dr. Posen admitted that for a variety of reasons this election is actually not about the economy. Emphasizing the importance of individual states in the US election, Dr. Posen noted that while traditional swing states are typically against free trade and current swing states tend to favor globalization, polling information in these states indicates that trade is a non-issue. Barack Obama, who espouses anti-trade rhetoric, has gained no advantage in traditional swing states where the public supposedly has similar economic views. Likewise, John McCain, who champions free trade and globalization, has made little headway in current swing states which have technology-centered markets.
Dr. Lennon, perhaps to the surprise of many in the audience, stressed that the foreign policies of Sen. Obama and Sen. McCain are, in fact, quite similar. Dr. Lennon focused on four policy areas in particular: the Middle East, Asia, climate change, and democracy promotion. Despite their differing time tables for withdrawing troops from Iraq, both Obama and McCain will be forced to respond to changing situations on the ground, including Malaki's call for a US withdrawal and a UN mandate for ending occupation. Although Obama seeks to increase diplomatic efforts with Iran, upcoming elections in the country could force him to wait years before diplomacy is again an effective tool with Tehran.
Concerning Asia, there is consensus between McCain and Obama: China must be brought into the international community and play a larger role in handling international responsibilities such as climate change. Dr. Lennon argued that hesitant US policy on energy reform stems from the US Congress, which is cautious to act in a time of economic instability, not from Obama or McCain.
Lastly, Dr. Lennon stated that democracy promotion will look different in the coming years: whoever is elected will have to work multilaterally with other democracies outside of established international organizations such as the UN. 
From left to right: Dr. Alexander Lennon, Dr. Constanze Stelzenmüller and Dr. Christoph von Marschall
Dr. von Marschall, having attended both the Democratic and Republican conventions and having followed both campaigns extensively, remarked how surprisingly close the election really is. He suggested that Sen. Obama has several key strengths: his message of change, his rhetorical skills and amiability, and his own life story, an example of the American Dream. McCain also has his own fortes: he is a war hero, a political maverick, and has rejuvenated his campaign with his vice-presidential choice, Sarah Palin. Asked on whom he would bet to win the election, Dr. von Marschall replied that it was too close to call.
Perhaps it is in the best international interest of the US to emphasize the similarities between McCain and Obama, and hide their differences. If the wrong man, according to Europe and most of the world, were to be elected, the US would not want this to hinder its capacity for global cooperation and maneuvering over the next four years.
In the following question-and-answer period, the panelists agreed that the next president will spend more time reacting to current and developing situations rather than shaping economic and foreign policy. Dr. Lennon again emphasized the important role of Congress in passing domestic and foreign policy acts, a process which the president can do little to alter or expedite. And Dr. Posen stressed that the economic situation depended heavily upon individual states and the wider global market, as opposed to particular policies that the president could enforce.
David Neil Lebhar holds a Bachelor's degree in Political Science from Davidson College and is currently an editorial intern at atlantic-community.org.
Related materials from the Atlantic Community:
- Reider Visser: Obama and Biden: No Fundamental Change on Iraq Policy.
- Meredith L. Nicoll: Whom and Exactly How is McCain Going to Fight?
- Mark Brzezinski & Lanny A. Breuer: Repairing America's Image Abroad Will Take Time.
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