According to conventional wisdom, Beijing and Washington will avoid war because of their economic interdependence. However, as John Lee, a foreign policy fellow at the Center for Independent Studies in Sydney, reminds us in the Wall Street Journal, similar optimism was prevalent prior to World War I. Britain, Germany and France shared a high level of economic interdependence at the time, yet political rather than economic forces ultimately shaped history, particularly strategic competition and navel rivalries.
Taking a cue from history, Lee considers Beijing's recent reiteration that its claims in the South China Sea are part of its "core interests” and the consequent diplomatic conflagration very serious. According to him it validates Aaron Friedberg's thesis that "East Asia today has the potential to recreate the European situation at the turn of the previous century." Lee describes China as a revisionist power: As it rises, its desperation to secure its "core interests" will deepen. He warns: "The danger is that, just as Germany did in Europe a century ago, China's overestimation of its own capabilities, and underestimation of American strengths and resolve—combined with strategic dissatisfaction and impatience—is the fast way toward disastrous miscalculation and error."
Such concern about China's handling of its rising power and nationalism can be found in the Chinese press as well. Ni Lexiong argues in the Global Times (translated by Watching America):
China is rising up at an amazing speed, and her national identity is changing fast. Consequently, the pursuit of its national interest is changing and expanding correspondingly. Will America face China's change and adapt to her new identity in time? Will America satisfy China’s pursuit of national interest, which is changing and growing continuously?
The self-recognition of the national identity sometimes can be dangerous. If a country makes a false self-recognition, its efforts in pursuing the national interest will be in vain — whether by setting the goal at an unattainable level or by turning a blind eye on the easy ones — and when this happens, danger will be right behind. Earlier, an organization ranked China’s military power as second in the world. This false recognition pushed China to the edge of a dangerous situation. Take, for example, the South China Sea issue, which had been shelved in the past decade, but now, with all the talk about China’s national strength soaring and rising up quickly, China has to keep an accordingly high profile and make her stand clear to the outside world.
The International Herald Tribune's Asia expert Philip Bowring adds to the debate that most South East Asian governments "now worry more about creeping Chinese hegemony than they do about US imperial behavior," and many believe Beijing has aspirations to assert a “Monroe Doctrine” to exclude non-regional powers from East Asia.
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Photo: Luther Bailey, License: CC BY 2.0.
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August 9, 2010
Member deleted
China's superiority complex derived from her inferiority complex should be carefully managed, her over-assertiveness can be seen very clearly until setbacks came, in south east Asia, in particular. More setbacks maybe on the way in other places.
All in all, the analyses presented in the above article are true and to the point. And China should do more soul searching, like the EU always does, to behave in a way that the international community can accept.