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February 18, 2011 |  12 comments |  Print | E-Mail Your Opinion  

Eva  Maria Krockow

Targeting Religious Extremism in Pakistan

Eva Maria Krockow: The EU and US urgently need to shift their focus to terrorist threats in Baluchistan, the volatile Pakistani province bordering Afghanistan. Targeted sanctions will help to support the secular population against Islamabad’s clandestine radicalization policies.

One of the most pressing challenges in establishing transatlantic security is finding an effective response to religious extremism and Islamist terrorist activity. The attacks of 9/11, the 2004 bomb detonations close to Madrid, the London bombings in 2005, and the recently thwarted car bomb attack in New York's Time Square powerfully demonstrate the need for action to meet religiously inspired violence. Radical Islamist organizations and parties exist all across Africa, the Middle East and Southeast Asia with Al-Qaeda, the Taliban and the Hezbollah being the most prominent of a comprehensive list varying in influence, membership numbers and religious political goals.

The difficulty lies in estimating the relative danger imposed by individual groups and in finding a contextualized and targeted approach towards specific regional challenges. Since 2001, attention of the transatlantic community has focused on Afghanistan. During Operation Enduring Freedom and the subsequent International Security Assistance Force, (ISAF) the NATO led mission in Afghanistan, to establish post-war stability, NATO and individual member states united against the Taliban forces within the country. The war resulted in many civilian casualties, destroyed basic infrastructure and undermined national attempts for post-Taliban governance, fueling anti-Western sentiments among the Afghan population. First attempts of western military to retreat have been made with state control being handed over to the Karzai administration, but Afghanistan continues to suffer the detrimental consequences of the intervention. The rash warfare, inspiring sentiments of both retaliation and fear, has also ensured the flight of influential Taliban leaders to other countries, thereby dispersing the extremist threat across neighboring regions and widening the geographic scope of Islamist activities.

Special attention must be paid to the Pakistani border region of Baluchistan, a province inhabited by the Baluch ethnic minority. The area is characterized by political instability rooted in Islamabad's repressive minority policies and gross human rights abuses of the ethno-culturally divergent population. The volatile regional situation, tribal activity and hidden mountain passes enabling illegal border crossings, have facilitated a resurgence of the Afghan Taliban in Baluchistan. This revival of extremism manifested itself in the establishment of recruitment centers and facilities for religious indoctrination.

The Pakistani government has refrained from intervention, and reportedly encourages Muslim extremism in order to counteract the nationalist sentiments of the secular Baluch population. Fearing Baluch activism to achieve greater autonomy or secession, Islamabad works to confuse the population's cultural basis of moderate Muslim lifestyle. Drawing on outdated religious policies, which were passed thirty years ago by Mohammed Zia ul-Haq, Pakistan's Ministry of Religious Affairs supports the establishment of Islamic schools (madrassas) in the region, aimed at the radicalization and ideological brainwash of the Baluch people, who traditionally reject the authority of mullahs, men educated in Islamic theology.

Islamabad attempts to undermine the Baluch culture by providing them with an alternative identity closely tied to the Pakistani state. Pashtun Islamist parties such as Maulana Fazlur ur-Rehman's faction of the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI-F) are being granted direct governmental support. Furthermore, the provincial elections from October 2002 were manipulated in order to achieve higher influence of religious parties in Baluchistan's politics.

Whilst officially opposing extremist movements in Afghanistan, Islamabad has been fueling another source of danger. However, the acute threat and optimal abatement strategies, which depend on the organization and geographic scope of the terrorist network in question, are difficult to estimate since the region is well-shielded from the transatlantic community.

Entry regulations are very strict - a fact made evident during the 2010 disaster management following Pakistan's flood catastrophe. Despite Baluchistan's urgent relief needs, the Pakistani government principally denied access to international aid agencies so as to hide secret extremist activities, socio-political grievances and chronic economic underdevelopment.

Against the background of the alarming Islamist activities in Baluchistan, which pose a dormant threat of an unpredictable scale, a broadened focus of transatlantic intelligence is urgently required and efforts to circumvent Islamabad's wall of secrecy must be made to enable comprehensive information gathering.

Subsequent policies will have to adopt a fitting approach undermining extremism by backing the moderate Baluch population and increasing regional stability. Rather than employing force to attack Islamist strongholds, which could destroy any remaining infrastructure and harm innocent civilians as seen in Afghanistan, sanctions should be used to improve political representation, physical security and basic freedoms of the Baluch population. Thereby, the traditionally moderate Sunni culture could be strengthened against the attempts of Islamic indoctrination, and further radicalization could be prevented.

With regards to long-standing regional underdevelopment and following the disastrous flooding, which resulted in unprecedented levels of destruction, death and poverty in the whole of Pakistan, sanctions need to be carefully designed so as not to worsen regional economic hardship. The UN Security Council Resolution 1929, which was passed in 2010 in opposition to Iran's nuclear programs, could serve as a model. In particular, elements aimed at sanctioning individuals (e.g. influential state officials and powerful tribal chiefs) could be adopted. Western visa bans limiting individual travelling or the freeze of personal assets could result in highly effective political and economic pressure within Pakistan's undemocratic and corrupt state system.

In view of the omnipresent threat of religiously inspired terrorism and the questionable success of previous military action in Afghanistan, transatlantic decision-makers will have to adapt their intelligence services and anti-terrorist policies to suit the current challenges of spreading extremist movements and growing anti-Western sentiments. Afghanistan's neighboring countries and Pakistan's Baluchistan province in particular have high terrorism potential and need to be targeted with well-informed, contextually sensitive and individualized sanctions, which could counteract Islamism by strengthening moderate religious culture on the grounds.

Eva Krockow earned a Master's degree in International Relations at the University of Durham, England. She is currently working with the Underrepresented Nations and Peoples Organization in Brussels as a Project Assistant.

Read related material from atlantic-community.org members:

 

This article was submitted for the atlantic-community.org's competition: "Empowering Women in International Relations." It coincides with the 10th Anniversary of UN resolution 1325  callling for an increased influence of women in all aspects of peace and security. The contest is sponsored by the U.S. Mission to NATO and the NATO Public Diplomacy Division.

You can find out more about the competition here.

 

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Niklas  Anzinger

February 19, 2011

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This is a brilliant enlightening article about a topic where strategic thinkers often lack clarity. The author gives an excellent overview of the difficulties of counter-terrorist activities in the region and offers clear, consistent policy recommendations.

A few questions to the author:

What do you think about strategic attempts of target killings? Are these fruitful, can we speak of successes? How are drone attacks above the Pakistani border seen by the government and are there reliable partners among Pakistani governmental institutions?
 
Yuliya  Edelshteyn

February 21, 2011

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While I am not an expert on Pakistan, I am not sure that placing sanctions on leaders will improve the conditions on the population of Balochistan. Sanctions have not yet worked in Iran, and the Iranian regime has come out many times with statements that they will not be abandoning their nuclear program. In addition, sanctions on leaders may in effect exacerbate the problems in Balochistan as the leaders may simply prevent money from going into that area as a response to the sanctions.

The problems in Balochistan are certainly grave, and political and economic stability is key to stopping the resurgence of the Taliban, but I'm not sure that sanctions will put the necessary pressure on the government. Perhaps a better way is the creation of pressure from below in the form of civil society organizations.
 
Eva  Maria Krockow

February 21, 2011

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@Niklas:

Thanks a lot for your kind comments on my article and the interesting questions. The US drone war, which has mostly focused on Northern Pakistan but also affected the region of Balochistan, is a very controversial topic. I personally agree with UN concerns regarding the lack of control over the number of civilian victims. In my opinion, the employment of unmanned drones to attack the regional terrorist strongholds results in an asymmetric type of warfare which claims many innocent lifes and serves to fuel anti-Western sentiments and feelings of retaliation amongst the local population.

@Yuliya:

Thank you for your comment. I do agree with your observation regarding the lack of success in Iran. However, rather than attributing Teheran's continued nuclear activity and human rights abuse to the imposition of sanctions in general, I would blame the lack of international cooperation in approaching the matter. The UN, US, EU and national governments all have adopted different strategies and their consequent sanctions varied in scope and political aims. This lack of unity undermined individual approaches by demonstrating a lack of assertiveness to Iran's government.

In my opinion, the use of sanctions should be carefully planned and agreed upon by a large number of international and national governments in order to form a united opposition force. By targeting national decision-makers - rather than the whole population - with economic sanctions, the protection of civilians can of course not be guaranteed. However, I would still consider it the best tool for achieving an improvement of the situation. I agree with your emphasis on grassroot level activism, but given the extreme oppression of all forms of civil society activity in Balochistan province at the moment, I consider the creation of pressure from below as impossible at the present stage. The strengthening of local organisations will be the next step after forcing Pakistan's national authorities through political and economic sanctions to increase regional freedoms.
 
Unregistered User

February 25, 2011

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Miss Eva ... with due respect i would like to know that if u have ever visted pakistan and have u been to balochistan . A good attempt but i belive that u do not have enough of knowledge about the tribal system that still works in balochistan and kyberpaksthoonkhaw province of pakistan.
i do not agree to the idea of military adventure being extended to balochistan and i dont see y some 1 from out side has to decide what should be done inside pakistan.
can u please quote any example where miltary intervention brought desired results?
u didnt mention indian hand in balouchistan case. and regarding the suggestion intelleigence services .. u should not forget that .. iraq is the example of intelleingence faliure..and about sanctions i would like to say that sanctions are not implemented on leaders rather implemented states directly hitting teh whole nation which in return can further complicate the issue .
dear i am a pakistani girl half pashtun.. no comment above is meant to offense u but reading ur article was good but yet it reflect ur lack of knowledge in many areas.
my request would be please read more about pakistan u have many confusions.

Reagrds,
Swaleha Malik


 
Eva  Maria Krockow

February 26, 2011

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Dear Swaleha,

Thank you for your comment. I regret to hear you consider it a reflection of lacking knowledge. All information and my subsequent conclusions are actually based on direct meetings and interviews with political representatives from Balochistan and activists who were forced to flee their home land to avoid falling victim to ongoing target killings and enforced disappearances. They now live in Europe and try to raise awareness about their population's suffering from abroad. Within my position at the Unrepresented Nations and Peoples Organization (UNPO), of which Balochistan is a member since 2008, I have met with those individuals and conducted political lobbying for them in the European institutions in Brussels. They have provided me with insight information of the situation on the grounds and with translation of regional newspaper articles. My whole article is based on this information. I have to admit that I have never travelled to Pakistan myself and that I have not experienced any of the atrocities and religious indoctrination myself but I still consider my sources as reliable.

Futhermore, I never suggested any military interventions in Balochistan since I believe this would harm the Balochi people who have already suffered for too long. I am aware that sanctions have not been perfectly successful in the past but I believe that a change in the sanctioning approach (as outlined above) could still be the best solution to the problems.

Best,
Eva
 
Alexander Kurt Sattler

March 4, 2011

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The article rightly emphasizes the need for the Pakistani government to invest more time and effort in non-military measures... and for the international community to push the Pakistani government to do so. There can be no doubt that the countries and regions bordering Afghanistan enjoy a high degree of attention by the Western coalition. But you are right that the approach is an overly military one.

The article also raised many questions. I will pose only a few here:
- Why do you think that the political instability of the Baluchistan region is 'rooted in Islamabad's repressive minority policies and gross human right abuses'? I have little doubt that Islamabad does have a repressive minority policy and does commit human rights abuses. But is that the reason for the region’s instability?
- It seems to follow from your argument that madrassas are actively supported by the federal government to serve the purpose of 'radicalization and ideological brainwash'. Really? As far as I know, madrassas are so important because there is no system of publicly funded schooling, and poor children are therefore sent to tuition-free madrassas. Moreover, I thought that the boom of madrassas can be traced back to funding by rich Islamic donors especially on the Arabian Peninsula.
- I was slightly stunned by the statement 'the traditionally moderate Sunni culture'. Are you saying that the Sunni Islam is generally more moderate than Shia Islam?

I agree with Yuliya that the effectiveness of sanctions is questionable. The difficulty with imposing sanctions is to choose the right sanctions to be imposed. Adding to this difficulty is the problem that the Western community needs Pakistan as a strategic partner more than Pakistan needs the West. Or to put it differently, Pakistan's nuclear arsenal gives its government a wild card in political negotiations.

In support of this article I have to say, however, that it is a compelling idea to identify and support moderate Islamic ideas in order to undermine support for radical ideas. The downside is that it seems very difficult to me to actually identify what is 'more moderate'. In the case of the Baluch culture, I wonder how specific support measures should look like.
 
Eva  Maria Krockow

March 4, 2011

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Dear Alexander,

Thank you for this very informed comment, which shows a lot of insight and a high level of reflection on the issue in question.

I will try my best to respond to all your questions.

1. In fact, I think that the region's political instability is determined by several factors of which repressive minority politics is only one. The governmental oppression of the local population fuels popular dissatisfaction and fear which in turns produces societal unrest, i.e. instability. Additional regional conditions such as the existence of independent and competing tribes and the presence of Afghan refugees and Taliban leaders have contributed to further destabilisation.
2. You are right when pointing to the lack of a state school system in Balochistan. Talking to representatives of the BNP (Balochistan National Party), they explained to me that Islamabad intentionally refuses to establish a publicly funded school system and cofunds/supports madrassas to ensure religious indoctrination of the population. Without other options for education, the Baloch people are forced to send their children to religious schools, exposing them to Islamabad's radicalisation (which is indeed often supported by Arab influencers).
3. With that statement I did not mean that Sunni Islam in general is more moderate than the Shia belief. I intended to refer to the particular interpretation of Sunni Islam shared by the Baloch population. Their traditions are based on a secular understanding of Sunni Muslim religion.
4. Thank you for pointing out Pakistan's nuclear threat. You are right that its arsenal and the state's unpredictable use of it make Islamabad a difficult partner for political negotiation. Would you happen to have any alternative ideas on how to approach the problem? Could you suggest suitable sanctions and what do you think of my proposal for individual sanctioning as opposed to the broad targeting of the government/the whole state?
5. In my opinion, the strengthening of moderate culture would need to be based on a general political stabilisation of the region, including physical protection of the Baloch people and the establishment of fundamental liberties including the freedom of political, cultural and religious expression. By opposing any religious indoctrination attempts and by ensuring free practice of traditionally moderate practices, extremism could be undermined. I do realise, however, that these measures are difficult to implement from the outside (especially since Balochistan is very successfully shielded from the international community). This is why I proposed international sanctions to impose political pressure...
 
Alexander Kurt Sattler

March 4, 2011

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ad 1. I agree with that.

ad 2. Actually, I was pointing at a lack of publicly funded schools in all of Pakistan, not only Baluchistan (which I have no specific knowledge about). That Islamabad allegedly actively supports and funds madrassas surprises me. I would be careful with taking for granted any statements made by the BNP. If it is a secessionist movement, as I assume, then it would be in their interest to spread false information in order to discredit the federal government in Islamabad. Without myself knowing the situation on the ground better than you do, I would prefer not to trust the BNP people too much.

ad 3. Now I see what you meant. I misunderstood that.

ad 4. I have to say that I am not convinced of the general suitability of sanctions in this case. There are significant struggles not only within the political class but also within the government or between government and society about the political course of the country. The murder of the Christian minister for minorities a few days ago is more than a hint for these struggles. The problem in Pakistan is not the 'the state' or 'the government' but subgroups within the state and within the government. The ISI is the prime example for a part of the state acting largely independent from the government in the past and with often different objectives than the government. I would not even rule out that different ministries follow their own, unaligned agendas. Who do you want to sanction then?

ad 5. Frankly, there is no such thing as a 'moderate culture', if you ask me. It is always a question of circumstances. I have the strongest doubts regarding claims that supporting some specific cultural traditions would change the stability of a region. What would be the Baluch culture traits worth being supported, specifically? And even if there would be something like a 'moderate culture', I doubt that the Baluch culture is indeed so intrinsically moderate and tolerant. Why do you think the Taliban can successfully hide in Baluchistan? Why does it seem as if honour killings are an accepted part of the Baluch tradition? Just consider this article: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/sep/01/pakistan

I have no doubt that the BNP representatives in Brussels must have presented you Baluchistan as the potential land of milk and honey if only the Pakistani government would stop poisoning it. They were certainly lobbying for their cause. I nevertheless doubt that the reality matches their claims.
 
Eva  Maria Krockow

March 5, 2011

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@ Alexander

First of all thank you for your detailed reply and your challenging statements. Your comments help me to reflect upon my own argument and are indeed very insightful for me.

2. Of course you always have to be careful in the contact with political parties who aim to lobby for their cause. The BNP despite some secessionist elements largely hopes to achieve greater political autonomy for Balochistan within a more federalised state system of Pakistan. It further works to achieve better respect for fundamental human rights in order to improve life quality of its people. The statements made regarding Islamabad's educational strategies have actually been backed up by internationally renowned organisations and think tanks including the Carnegie Endowment and the International Crisis Group. Please take a look at the following reports: http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=... (page 11)
and http://www.unhcr.org/refworld/country,,ICG,,PAK,,471cb7df2,0.html (page 7)

4. I completely agree with your statement regarding the existence of subgroups in Pakistan counteracting a centralised state government. This is the very reason for which I proposed the employment of individual sanctions. Rather than sanctioning the state as a whole by imposing indiscriminate trade bans or similar measures, I would suggest to identify influential individuals within the state apparatus, who - be it through bribery or family ties - have accumulated political power beyond any popular control (e.g. leading ISI personell, tribal chiefs, specific ministers). One could freeze the personal accounts of those individuals, effectuate travel bans and thereby try to force them to review some of their policies and political/military action. Of course those individuals would have to be carefully chosen and the international community would have to unite in their action in order to communicate a strong message to Pakistan's decision makers and eventually achieve change.

5. I have to admit that the article has taken me by surprise and that I was not aware of such practices in Balochistan's traditional population. In my opinion, moderate Islam does exist but in the current political climate there is always a risk it will be turned into a tool to oppose Western/Christian dominance. With regards to Balochistan, I still believe it is largely moderate without inherent extremist/terrorist trends or engagement in an enduring jihad against the West. I have to recognise though that some radical elements could exist in particular tribes as reported by your article. However, I would like to emphasise that it was the Pakistan People's Party and Balochistan's unaccountable government which backed the reported honour killings politically. The latter are under Islamabad's control and do not represent the Baloch population which still unsuccessfully strives for political self-determination and meaningful representation at province and state level.

I generally agree with your doubts about relying on sources presented by regional parties and political activists as their accounts will necessarily be biased to some extent. This is why I have tried to do additional reading on the subject, focusing on publications by Western organisations and academics. Of course it is impossible to read all material available (particularly with my lack of relevant language skills) and it can be difficult to estimate the reliability of individual resources. The region's unaccessability for deeper study is definitely a great obstacle to obtaining detailed information.
 
Alexander Kurt Sattler

March 5, 2011

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Thank you for recommending me those two Carnegie and UNHCR reports. That is very interesting stuff. I was not actually intending to defend Islamabad's divide-and-rule policies in Baluchistan. What I was rather trying to point out is that, despite the criticizable and heavy-handed policies by the Pakistani state, the Baluch victims of these policies need not be tolerant Robin Hoods.
You were talking about Islamabad's unchanged stance on the region in the light of the flood disaster last year. Do you think that Islamabad's policies might still have changed in the last years since the above reports have been published? I was wondering whether the grown international pressure on Pakistan to increase its efforts to fight Taliban and al-Qaeda on its territory might have borne fruit in this respect. Otherwise, funding Islamism to undermine Baluch culture and fighting Taliban/al-Qaeda at the same time seems contradictory to me, almost like fanning the fire you are trying to extinguish.

Your idea with personalized sanctions is again an interesting one. Indeed, freezing overseas accounts and imposing travel bans are sanctions used these days for the Libyan regime, although without the need to make delicate differentiations within the regime. Problems enter the equation once we are trying to make just these latter differentiations. I would expect difficulties to begin already with the general distinction between 'bad guys' and 'good guys', and hence expect probably irreconcilable international disagreement over this question. And don’t you think that such an individualized type of sanctions might be an excessive interference in domestic affairs due to its selectiveness? Obviously, sanctions are always an interference in domestic affairs, and that is why they cannot be reconciled with international law, agreed on and passed so easily. Without being an expert on international law, I would assume that imposing such individualized sanctions requires that the targeted individuals individually pose a great risk to international peace and security and/or severely violate human rights. This would in most cases be hard if not impossible to prove. Maybe someone here has more specific knowledge about the legal dimension of international sanctions.

How long ago did you interview the BNP people? You did not possibly interview the other party, i.e. representatives of the Pakistani state? If not, I think you may have a realistic chance to get a detailed statement by them once you mention that you have already talked in detail with representative of the BNP. It should be fascinating to make a comparison between the two perspectives...
 
Eva  Maria Krockow

March 7, 2011

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Dear Alexander,

No, I do not think Islamabad has changed its minority policies in Balochistan. If anything, the situation has worsened. Aid distributions during the floods were extremely biased. There were even cases of intentional dam breaches in the reagion, in order to allow for the water to freely flood the Baloch lands and to direct it away from strategic industrial sites of the government. Furthermore, the number of forced disappearances has steadily been increasing with over 100 only in 2010. Additionally, target killings are on the rise (another 100 were reported during the past year). Islamabad also continues to conduct arbitrary imprisonment of Baloch people (650 in 2010). Of course different sources of information report different numbers but the general trend of an aggravation of physical insecurity is generally supported by all of them. You are quite right in your remark about the incompatibility of antiterrorism action and the religious indoctrination attempts in Balochistan. I do not think Islamabad ever intended to seriously fight extremism on its territory and any antiterrorist action engaged in by the state could be understood as a strategic move to appease the international community. This is the reason why Balochistan and the support of madrassas in the region is so well shielded from Western eyes.

With regards to international law, I know that concerns have been raised against the background of American drone attacks in the region. Individual sanctions could be understood as the demilitarised version of the latter. Therefore, despite still being controversial within the framework of international law, individual sanctions could serve the process of a gradual stand-off of the radical military action in the region. However, like yourself I am no expert in international law...

I have been in regular contact with Balochistan representatives over the duration of several months with 3-4 personal meetings. So far, I have never met any Pakistani state representatives in person but I did get the chance to attend a public hearing of the Pakistani foreign minister in the European Parliament last year. His speech and subsequent answering of questions, however, was rather disappointing with him avoiding all sensitive topics. I agree, a direct comparison of comprehensive interviews of both sides would be very interesting and hopefully conclusive.
 
Unregistered User

July 16, 2011

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Well i have been living there in Balochistan , that place is so dangerous right now hundreds of madrassas islamist schools , and in these schools every six months new recruits are added for jihad in Afghanistan and the Afghan taliban who are openly wandering here and there in towns and cities are planing attacks on intl forces in Afg , the world must watch this place and the discrimination of Pashtun people in the province that the people over there are kept un educated poor and forced to send their children to madrasa ,
Tags: | balochistan extremism |
 

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