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September 24, 2010

Eliot Ames Rolen , Maastricht University , Bronze Contributor (13)

I know that this might sound inflammatory to some, but worries of isolated terror attacks are symptomatic to our taking for granted the incredibly safe existence we lead in the western world compared to those in Africa, South East Asia, Eastern Europe and the Middle East. Deterring terrorism, or worrying about it for that matter is not about preemptive strikes or raising an arbitrary threat level on the nightly news, its about addressing the military industrial and religiously fundamentalist mentality with counter arguments towards their use of systematic violence that aren't issued in 5.56mm. The promotion of non partisan and culturally appropriate media and secular (to a degree) governance would be a good first step. This is too long term for most, so yes, I am concerned about terrorism, but not just in my country which has put it forth as something America has suffered above all others, but its impact on our ability to evolve as a global society.

September 24, 2010

Felix F. Seidler, Atlantische Initiative, Platinum Contributor (329)

Yes, media and politicians undererstimate nearly every outside threat. But this is understandable, because they all are too busy with interior issues. As long as things are different behind the scenes, we are not about to face a major problem. Politicians have to take care, that intelligence and police agencies can do their work sufficiently.

Whether we stay calm or not on the short run is not criticial, rather our societies cannot afford to lose their minds on the long run. We will always have to deal with terrorism. In the past, we had the socialist motivated terrorism (for example Germany´s RAF). Today, the major terrorist threat is motivated by Islamism. Terrorism cannot be defeated physically. Socialism or Islamism are ideologies.

The only nation, which defeated terrorism succesfully was the United Kingdom in Northern Ireland. But look, how many decades the British needed. Though, the point is mental strength. In a struggle of ideologies the one who stands longer is about to win. If we want to defeat terrorism, the worst thing we could do, is to give up our values and way of live.

9/11 showed what happens, if do not counter terrorist threats. Intellectual proliferation around the world is a serious issue. In 1995 Japan`s Ōmu Shinrikyō sect proved the ability of terrorists to use WMD. It is known, that Al-Qaeda seeks to get WMD as well. Transatlantic partners have to deal with those issues, because underestimating could cause drastic consequences.

September 24, 2010

Paul-Robert Lookman, http://geopolitiek-in-perspectief.blogspot.com/, Platinum Contributor (280)

Red or any other colour of alert, I find these discussions pretty sterile if we do not discuss the root cause of terrorism at the same time.

Under the title “America’s Faltering Search for Peace in the Middle East: Openings for Others?”, former US ambassador to Saudi Arabia Chas Freeman addressed staff members of the Royal Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and, separately, to members of the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs. Ambassador Freeman is renowned for his fresh ideas and direct way of expressing these. Iinterestingly, he is one of the very few analysts that I know of who does look at the root causes of terrorism. Just a quote from his speech:

“The widening involvement of Americans in combat in Muslim lands has inflamed anti-American passions and catalyzed a metastasis of terrorism. It has caused a growing majority of the world’s 1.6 billion Muslims to see the United States as a menace to their faith, their way of life, their homelands, and their personal security. American populists and European xenophobes have meanwhile undercut liberal and centrist Muslim arguments against the intolerance that empowers terrorism by equating terrorism and its extremist advocates with Islam and its followers. The current outburst of bigoted demagoguery over the construction of an Islamic cultural center and mosque in New York is merely the most recent illustration of this. It suggests that the blatant racism and Islamophobia of contemporary Israeli politics is contagious. It rules out the global alliances against religious extremists that are essential to encompass their political defeat.”

You will find his full speech here: http://www.mepc.org/articles-commentary/speeches/america-s-falterin...

I quoted Ambassador Freeman before, viz. his speech "An Empire Decomposed: American Foreign Relations in the Early 21st Century" to Foreign Affairs Retirees of Northern Virginia (http://www.chasfreeman.net/farnova100324%5B1%5D.htm). See my reaction to Erik Brattberg’s article “Obama's Grand Strategy and Europe” of July 28.

And Howard Zinn has also said a few things worthy of consideration. Asked a few weeks before his demise how the newly elected president Barack Obama could ensure transformational change, Zinn answered:

"Withdraw troops from Iraq and Afghanistan as fast as ships and planes can carry them home, declare that the United States will not engage in aggressive wars, renounce the Bush doctrine of preventive war and the Carter doctrine, which threatens force to control Mideast oil, and start dismantling our military bases overseas. He should announce that we are henceforth a peace-loving nation, no longer a target for terrorists and no longer engaging in terrorism ourselves. He should reduce the military establishment and the military budget down to a bare minimum and create a jobs program for young people instead of recruiting them for military service."

Please refer to my review of his book “A People's History of the United States” on Atlantic Community (http://www.atlantic-community.org/index/articles/view/Howard_Zinn%3...).

September 25, 2010

Member deleted

I agree. I think that instead of highlighting and reacting to every single terror threat, whether small or large, we should focus on eliminating terrorism at its source. I view this as a structural realist- the United States and the rest of the Western community perceives terror groups as a threat. Thus, the Western community fears for its own security within the international system and become focused on the terror groups' capabilities and relative gains. This theory gains a new level of complexity since it is not a state that threatens the Western community's security, but rather non-state actors who transcend state boundaries.

I believe that to combat this security threat best, the Western community must cease to scrutinize every single terror threat. Numerous threats emerge daily, weekly, monthly, with varying levels of certainty and legitimacy. I think that instead of raising our anxiety at the knowledge of each new threat, we must think strategically on more structured, focused ways to dissuade individuals from joining extremist groups. We must focus on such areas as eliminating poverty by providing increased access to education and ending gender inequality in much of the Middle East. More educated individuals means better livelihoods, more wealth, and thus, less probability of an individual feeling they have no other resort than to turn to terror groups who prey on such seemingly helpless victims. We must work collectively with other Middle East nations in assisting them, if they so wish, with these processes. We should combat the issue of terrorism at its source, rather than simply instituting numerous security safeguards at our homelands and keeping tabs on how many and what kind of terror threats are emerging.

September 25, 2010

Michael

Mr. Lookman,

do you also blame the murder van Gogh on the Americans? Or what is the root cause here?

And yes, the Dutch government does label it a terrorist attack: "The first terrorist attack by radical Muslims in the Netherlands was the murder of the Dutch filmmaker Theo van Gogh on 2 November 2004. " http://www.government.nl/Subjects/Terrorism


Oh, and is the Pop Idol contest the root cause of Dr. Khurram Syed Sher's actions?

"A man who appeared on Canada's version of "American Idol" was the third person arrested as part of an alleged plot against targets in Canada and abroad, police said Thursday. The two other suspects made a brief appearance in court on Thursday on charges they had plans to make bombs and had plans to use them.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38872229/ns/world_news-americas/?gt1=43001

September 25, 2010

Michael

Ms Shaland

"We must focus on such areas as eliminating poverty by providing increased access to education and ending gender inequality in much of the Middle East. "

How can we do that while the Middle East is ruled by dictators and corrupt elites, who benefit from their nations living in poverty, with no education and gender equality?

What is the best way to promote gender issues in the Middle East?

September 26, 2010

Paul-Robert Lookman, http://geopolitiek-in-perspectief.blogspot.com/, Platinum Contributor (280)

Mr Michael,

On this open think tank I do not debate with participants who prefer to remain anonymous. If you would be kind enough make yourself known, and please explain to the audience exactly what you are talking about (few will understand the Dutch specifics), I will be ready to enter into debate with you, or with anybody else for that matter.

September 28, 2010

Christopher Connolly, New York University, Silver Contributor (29)

Lack of coverage by the media may be due to an apathetic audience. Warnings of a terrorist threat seem to be becoming the proverbial “crying wolf”, to which no one really pays attention. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Sensible decisions are rarely made in a state of fear. Finally, our leaders may be able to address the issue of terrorism objectively without public hysteria in the background.

September 28, 2010

Amarjyoti Acharya

To any response like that of the French quoted, the thought is about: what are those reasons? Why are they there and how are they there? WE usually jump to "doing our job" response which is not really counter-terrorism. When we counter terrorism, we already have accepted a hardline approach with a strongly antagonistic "us" versus "them" view and acceptance of that view.

In a manner it is very useful to have such a clarity of views. The key word is clarity here, including being able to address the questions that go. Like: Who? Why? How? before we move to the questions of "where?" and "when?" - the crucial questions that pertain to serious matters in counter-terrorism.

I agree with Paul-Robert Lookman's emphasis on root-cause theories, without discounting the immediate task of countering terrorism. A juvenile first-time offender is a good insight into the why? how? of structural processes (including civil society ones) and the possible malaise that may have crept into them to throw a juvenile first-time offender. A proclaimed and hardened repeat offender is where counter-terrorism comes in swiftly.

Do we look at terrorists as specific cold-blooded horrors. Then we lose sight of their basic pond: crime & terror that can be from the failures of the state as well as their societies as well as their individual failures. Can one compare Norway with India, for example. The notion of a Norway as it appears in tourist brochures would be slightly different from a lived experience in Norway as a vagabond. That experience would again be different when it forms a lived-in experience of a millionaire or a popular figure!

The difference of lived-in experience in India would be much starker from its tourist brochures, and depending upon who is visiting and from where (matters in India), than of similar experiences in Norway.

The why? of this difference may also add a lot of insight into discussions over terrorism and the reasons behind it. Holding Human Rights as the universal standard helps in having an ideal control group versus a malignant group passing itself as a society. Without any allusion to Australia of today, Australia as a penal colony would automatically be different from Great Britain - when Australia used to be a penal colony.

In studying terrorism, it is useful to look at states as well as societies; tourist brochures as well as lived-in experiences in its varied statuses. With Human Rights and a society socialized into it/having internalized the values that give rise to Human Rights as the standard bearer, it is easier to classify terrorists and other delinquents. Or in other words, classify risk-groups in the global mosaic that we all need to encounter - including its frontiers as International Terrorism.

September 28, 2010

Sidra Tariq, Institute of Regional Studies, Silver Contributor (27)

As have been pointed out in comments above, addressing the root causes of terrorism is indeed the first step in the right direction.

In this regard, Perception is a very important factor. What is right for one party or group might be wrong for the other, and vice versa. This is also applicable to those addressing the root causes because in their quest to come up with alternative scenarios, many at times, they make the existing situation even more complex.

September 29, 2010

Olaf Theiler, Political Scientist, German Armed Forces, Platinum Contributor (173)

The latest news are related to the threat warnings in the article.

See "CIA steps up drone attacks in Pakistan amid fear of al-Qaeda terror in Europe" http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/09/28/AR2...

October 1, 2010

Richard B.

Terrorism seems to become a marketing product. The very origin of it should be found, before trying to put in place extremely expensive policies and infrastructures.

October 2, 2010

Lukas Meyer

Of course we need to have higher alert levels. "Red alert" is a bit too dramatic, perhaps, but one level below that would be warranted given the current news.

Many agencies in France seem to be on high alert. Germany seems to ignore the threat as usual.

To: Michelle Shaland, Richard B, Amarjyoti Acharya, Paul-Robert Lookman,

There are credible reports of currently unfolding terrorist plots and all you care about are some nebulous root causes. I find that unbelievable and disappointing.

NPR is certainly no fear mongering media outlet, but they are writing:

"Intelligence officials and people familiar with an unfolding terrorist plot to target Europe tell NPR that Osama bin Laden is involved.
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=130242602>

I find it unbelievable that you don't how you seem to be concerned and that you refuse to address the current threats, but chat about root causes. Yes, it's just chatting.

If you would at least make suggestions for addressing the root causes!!! That would be somewhat constructive. Come on, go ahead, and tell us your ten point plan for tackling the root causes! Though please go beyond telling us about fighting poverty or Israel or such nonsense, since Bin Laden and most other terrorists were spoiled rich kids and there is no terrorism coming from the poorest and most oppressed places of the earth.

October 3, 2010

Lance W.

Ben Ladin could not be planning these so called attacks as claimed by the U.S.. He died years ago as Benazir Bhutto stated in an interview just before she was killed.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UnychOXj9Tg

This is all propaganda to keep the public in a constant state of fear from imagined enemies and to deprive the us of our freedoms under the guise of protection from so called terrorism.. A page right out of George Oswell's 1984.

October 4, 2010

Lukas Meyer

Here are the answers to your questions on threat levels:
http://edition.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/asiapcf/10/04/pakistan.drone.germ...

"Japan issued a similar alert Monday, citing the warnings issued by the United States and by Britain, which raised the level highest for France and Germany.

On Friday, Sweden raised its threat level from "low" to "elevated," the third-highest threat level on a scale of five that ranges from "no threat" to "low threat" to "elevated threat" to "high threat" to "very high threat."

"The terrorist threat remains high in France, the alert level remains unchanged at level red."

Britain's Foreign and Commonwealth Office changed its travel advisory for British citizens in France and Germany from a "substantial" threat of terrorism to a "high" threat, but the office said it does not comment on intelligence matters and thus could not say whether the change was related to the U.S. travel alert.

A spokeswoman for Germany's interior ministry said the country will remain at Level 2 alert, which indicates a "high, probable risk" of a terrorist attack."

Wow, even Sweden raised the threat level.
Now, that is scary!!!

October 5, 2010

Paul-Robert Lookman, http://geopolitiek-in-perspectief.blogspot.com/, Platinum Contributor (280)

Good old “The Washington Post” today comes with the interesting article by Anne Applebaum under the title: “Terror warnings: Be specific or be quiet”, see http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/10/04/AR2... from which I would like to quote:

“Over time, these kinds of enigmatic warnings do al-Qaeda's work for it, scaring people without cause. Without so much as lifting a finger, Osama bin Laden disrupts our sense of security and well-being. At the same time, such warnings put the U.S. government in the position of the boy who cried wolf. The more often general warnings are issued, the less likely we are to heed them. We are perhaps unsettled or unnerved, but we don't know what to do. So we do nothing -- and wish that we'd been told nothing as well.“

The more I think about it, the more I tend to suspect a hidden agenda behind these warnings.

October 5, 2010

Paul-Robert Lookman, http://geopolitiek-in-perspectief.blogspot.com/, Platinum Contributor (280)

STRATFOR just posted the article: “Dispatch: European Terror Threat Overstated” with a video, in which tactical analyst Ben West discusses the recent terror threat in Europe and explains why the plot is unlikely to lead to a Mumbai-style attack. See:

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100929_dispatch_european_terror_...

October 6, 2010

Eoin Michael Heaney , Atlantic Community , Bronze Contributor (24)

Mr. Lookman,

Thank you for posting this video. However, I am not sure if STRATFOR's hypothesis that these warnings are mostly 'hype' due to the predominance of a single source is particularly wise.

The fact of the matter is that waves of German nationals have been travelling to jihadist training camps on the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan as is the case with some British nationals.

In particular, a dangerous cell of extremists has been identified in Hamburg linked to the recently closed Taiba mosque.(http://edition.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/europe/10/04/europe.terror.plot/i...) A serious threat does indeed exist.

Furthermore, the fact that European police forces may well be better trained than their Indian counterparts does not mean that they can be everywhere at once to prevent such an attack in the first place.

Nevertheless, I believe that striking a balance between vigilance and scare-mongering is key to dealing with the situation.

October 6, 2010

Paul-Robert Lookman, http://geopolitiek-in-perspectief.blogspot.com/, Platinum Contributor (280)

Mr Heaney,

Apart from The Washington Post and Stratfor, there are lots of other sources which put question marks behind the warnings. For example “Washington´s Fear Campaign: US Issues Terror Alert for European Cities” by Patrick Martin on Global Research, see http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=21314. Just to quote:

“Elsewhere on the European continent, however, there seems to be a more skeptical attitude to the US-inspired terror scare. The German Interior Ministry, which controls the police, said Germany has ‘still no concrete indications of imminent attacks,’ concluding, ‘The government does not currently see any reason to modify its evaluation of concrete risks.’

The German magazine Der Spiegel published a lengthy account of the source of the terror scare, claiming that it is a single German citizen of Pashtun descent, Ahmad Sidiqi, who was detained by US forces in Afghanistan in July and is currently in US custody. He is being interrogated by ‘special units of the CIA and the American military,’ the magazine said. In other words, he is being tortured at a CIA “black site,” the prison on the grounds of the huge US air base at Bagram.”

More and more, I suspect a US political motivation behind this alert, in the wake of the forthcoming election.

October 6, 2010

Sebastian Müller

The terror alerts are based on information from more than one source. The concern is that there are several plots right now. In addition to the arrest of Siddiq in Afghanistan, 12 more arrests were made in France.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6941GL20101005

The warnings are not just coming from the US. The French officials sound even more alarming. And they evacuated the Eiffel Tower twice.

Paul-Robert Lookmann, why would the US warn of attacks in Europe (!) for the purpose of the US (!) midterm elections? The thesis from Applebaum is more convincing: "Some believe the U.S. government has issued this statement to frighten Europeans into greater intelligence cooperation, and in particular to persuade the European Union to agree to a new system of airline passenger data exchange."

October 7, 2010

Sidra Tariq, Institute of Regional Studies, Silver Contributor (27)

For an interesting read on the same topic, please see: http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/LJ07Ak01.html

October 7, 2010

Khalid Ahmed Chaudry

Let's be aware of the facts that war in Iraq was started on 'historical lies'by the then US government along with UK and other countries and resulted in to more then a half million deaths!

NATO's mission in Afghanistan another blunder resulting in to thousands of deaths of civillions in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Muslim World is against this (except some power hungery individuals) and majority of Mulism reject ongoing operations in Afghanistan.

Policy makers in Washington DC, London, Paris, Berlin, NATO head office should re-draft their policies of 'Global Policing', We all know (including US military command in Afghanistan) that no body can win this war, besides it's anti-peace, anti-global harmoney and solidarity.

Islam and Quran doesn't permit violance and rejects killings of innocents. Those involved in bloodbath of innocents are not doing any service to Islam. Muslim of the World should unite and join all those fellow human beings willing to see the end of violance on this earth..

We should condemn any action or terrorism and extrimism by any one and shuld not allow some individuals to crush the image of Islam.

October 12, 2010

Donald Hamilton MacNab, NYU, Silver Contributor (29)

What many people seem to forget is that terrorism is nothing that can be affectively defeated by alerts, or even military means. This is simply because terrorism is not an ideology, a nation, or a military, but a tactic. We can no better fight a war against terrorism, than we can fight a war against sneak attacks, artillery bombardments, or air strikes. This is why the west, and the United States in particular must address the root causes of terrorism, for the terrorism is just an effect of a problem.

I would argue that US foreign policy in the Middle East is one of many causes of this problem, and a problem that can be mitigated by changes in such policies. The US is better off addressing this concern than simply launching missiles at people in Afghanistan, and elevating alert statuses when ever they feel an attack is likely. If one listens to Osama Bin-Laden’s reason for attacking the US on September 11th (based on his September 2009 statement) it was not based on any lack of a terror alert, but on US policy toward Israel. This should not be surprising, for many Middle Eastern organizations that use terror as a tactic seem to be upset over US policy towards Israel (Including myself who is an American who for the record does not use terror as a tactic).

For a millennia the Jewish people in Europe were an innocent and unjustly persecuted people. Europe’s remedy to the genocide that they suffered in the 1940’s was simply to make the people of Palestine pay for the European persecution of its Jews. It might be reasonable to suggest that many Arabs might have some concern with regards to the Israelis refusing other Arabs the right to return to their post-conflict homes, forcing generations in to refugee camps, confiscating land, unfairly appropriating water, destroying farmland, bulldozing homes, blockading populations, building walls, building homes on contested land, implementing collective punishment, and in the opinion of many doing much of this in violation of international laws. This does not even mention the action of the Israeli government last week which would require all naturalizing persons in Israel to sign a loyalty oath that states "I swear to respect the laws of the state of Israel as a Jewish and democratic state”, regardless if they are Jewish or not.

Should we in the United States be surprised that there might be people who use terror as a tactic that would have a problem with Israel's policys? Should we in the United States be surprised that US foreign policy is one that at least is perceived by some people who use terror as a tactic as being one sided in the conflict between Israel and its indigenous inhabitants? Should we be surprised that many who use terror as a tactic may take issue with the US military apparatus and equipment that is often used to enforce an Israeli occupation upon the Palestinians? And lastly should we in the US expect people who use terror as a tactic to view our national leadership positively when they are constantly and publicly reiterating their support for Israel while ignoring the Palestinian humanitarian crisis in Gaza and elsewhere.

I am not condoning any act of terrorism at all, and I would like to do all that I can to stop world wide terrorism. The first step that needs to be taken is to understand one of the causes(US Foreign Policy), and not the effect (terrorism) of violence in the middle east. So what is the point of having terror alerts if we refuse to address the causes? To end on a thought for the day… Just how many enemies in the Muslim world did the US have before 1948?

October 12, 2010

Paul-Robert Lookman, http://geopolitiek-in-perspectief.blogspot.com/, Platinum Contributor (280)

Donald Hamilton MacNab: A well written and welcome comment, which I wholeheartedly support. It reminded me of:

retired US Army Special Forces colonel Jean-François Angevin-Romey’s open letter of December 29, 2008 to President Obama, see http://albalma.newsvine.com/_news/2008/12/31/2261664-letter-from-re... and

former US Ambassador to Saudi Arabia Chas Freeman’s speech “An Empire Decomposed: American Foreign Relations in the Early 21st Century” of March 24, 2010, to the Foreign Affairs Retirees of Northern Virginia, see http://www.chasfreeman.net/farnova100324%5B1%5D.htm

Where you say “US foreign policy in the Middle East is one of many causes”, I feel it is the major cause of this problem. Surely American lawmakers are very well aware of this, but are “paralyzed” by the Israel Lobby.