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March 23, 2011 |  5 comments |  Print | E-Mail Your Opinion  

The EU's Interventionist Discourse is Hollow

Member deleted Developments in the METAL states (Morocco, Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria and Libya) have shown that the EU’s ability to act has changed little – if anything – since the Yugoslav wars. The EU is smothered by incapacity, indecision, and fragmentation. Upcoming EU summits will fail because Europe is still lacking any political imagination as to what must really be done.

Think back 15 years. Yugoslavia was burning and Europe did little but watch how NATO tried to extinguish the fire. It left European states feeling guilty and powerless, and ‘never again’ was the dominant discourse heard: ‘at least not in our back yard’. They set about establishing the – recently retagged – Common Security and Defence Policy to allow the EU to ‘fully assume its responsibilities for crisis management’ in its own vicinity and beyond. No need to call Washington again, right? Well, no, wrong.

Europe's back yard seems to reach further than it used to and the developments in the North African METAL states (Morocco, Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria and Libya) have shown that the EU’s ability to act has changed little – if anything – since the Yugoslav wars. Europe as a political entity has been remarkably quiet in relation to the rapid corrosion of neighboring METALs, not least over the vexed question of military intervention.

Conclusion: European interventionist discourse is as hollow as ever.

North African countries quiver, but beyond French and British unilateral blundering, the EU’s default option has been to call Washington again. Even if Europe could agree to join in on ‘easing’ Colonel Qaddafi from power, such an operation would almost certainly be launched under a NATO flag. The Arab League or African Union would obviously provide a useful political answer to neo-colonial impeachments, but the hardware - and hard decisions - to actually do it, would be unmistakably American. In short, not much has changed: crises arise in the European neighborhood and the EU is smothered by incapacity, indecision, and fragmentation.

One could argue, fair enough: Europe has never been good at the ‘hard stuff’, so leave the heavy military interventions to NATO. But the real question is can the EU do the soft, or rather smart politics needed to help reinforce the METAL states in its own southern neighborhood.

Current proposals on the table lack substance; the deliberate vagueness is designed to please national European interests rather than those of the METAL states. Fragmentation shows conditionality-oriented countries such as Germany and the UK opposing member states like Italy and Malta that prefer neighborly relations with the region based on commercial interests. But policy differentiation is not the root of the problem: upcoming summits rethinking EU (neighborhood) policies will fail in the first place because Europe is still totally lacking any political imagination as to what must really be done. That's a real shame; there is never a better time to recast the policy iron than when the 'METAL' is hot.

Step One: Enhancing European defense with credible assets to militarily intervene – or at least provide the credible appearance this could be done – is a prerequisite for breaking with US military dependence. Clearly this won’t happen overnight, and will require some difficult conversations between defense and finance ministers in the current setting: the US defense expenditure in real terms close to triples that of the EU 26.

Step Two, which is arguably cheaper and more effective: totally revise Europe’s political and economic strategy towards the METAL states.

Instead of merely focusing on more aid, less immigration restrictions and lower trade barriers tied to financial and regulatory carrots, political cooperation should go much further. Market access is a very quick and easy step to help strengthen METAL economies, and indeed, reduce migratory flows. It would also fortify Europe’s role as the largest economic zone in the world. Political reform will be more time-consuming, but the long-term goal should be an enlarged political community – obviously not in the sense of EU membership, but through genuine dialogue and engagement. The core of this would entail profound institutional transformation towards fairer, more transparent elections, constitutional reform and robust judicial systems. Enhanced EU civilian crisis management capabilities will be needed, as well as the promise of a fully-fledged EU-METAL political partnership. Democratization and constitutional change, as well as the terms of trade and market access offered, should be steered by METAL states as much as by the EU. Making sure states are dealt with on a policy specific and individual basis will be another critical factor for success.

But re-engaging with the METAL states is not just about North Africa. If Brussels – facing as much internal financial and political problems as foreign policy failure – is unable to act now, the METAL story might come at a high geopolitical cost for Europe’s global credibility. The EU will always struggle to be a military giant, but still can be a political and economic heavyweight in its broader region. If Europe can offer the METALs something real, it will show that the EU can act in times of crises, and – more importantly – it could make the occurrence of such crises become less likely in future.

Mutual economic and political benefits are the only credible way forward to bond METALs in North Africa with non-METALs in Europe. Get that formula right, and who knows, Europe could start applying it elsewhere. After all, ‘METAL’ is inherently malleable.

An Jacobs is a Research Fellow at the Center for Security Studies at ETH Zurich, Switzerland. This article was submitted on March 11, 2011.

 

This article was submitted for the atlantic-community.org's competition: "Empowering Women in International Relations." It coincides with the 10th Anniversary of UN resolution 1325 calling for an increased influence of women in all aspects of peace and security. The contest is sponsored by the U.S. Mission to NATO and the NATO Public Diplomacy Division.

You can read more submissions from the competition here.

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Tags: | Middle East | North Africa | Maghreb |
 
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Angelina  Harutyunyan

March 23, 2011

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In my view, there is fragmentation not only in the EU, but in NATO itself. Not all NATO-member states appreciate the war in Libya. And this is not because of the inconsistency of the defense forces and military power, but unclear and non-proportional nature of the operation. The casualties already caused as a result of the operation higher than casualties during the protests. If the operation was a really the only way out, there would be a real concord among the EU nation-states. It is already the fourth day of intervention, meanwhile Gaddafi promises a long war. The war in Libya is senseless, since it has no aim to remove Gaddafi, and that means no political progress would follow after the end of the given operation. In general the stand of the EU on the issue is quite rational.
 
Member deleted

March 23, 2011

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Among EU 27, as a matter of speaking, some are turning from left to right, some are turning from right to left, some are turning from center to left and right depending upon issues, etc., thus, it is a difficult situation.

Catherine Ashton, as her title suggests, may just be the one shaping these and related issues along with other leaders in the EU members and the EU Troika.
 
Jeremy   Wysakowski-Walters

March 23, 2011

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Hello An,

Firstly congratulations on getting so many play-on-words into your text, a great achievement :)

More seriously I am a little bemused as to whether you are suggesting both step one and step two. If step one is an option, are you advocating that Europe does away with its Atlantic relationship?

Your reference to French and British unilateral blundering is also bit confusing. As far as I can see neither state has blundered with regards Libya. In fact they have been providing together the only true leadership in the issue. When military assets are the preserve of the nation-state it is perhaps understandable why the EU has little to say on the issue. Only individual states can send their troops to war.

The fact that the US has taken an operational lead in the matter does not automatically mean that Europe was impotent. The UK and France would have been capable of dealing with the issue themselves, yet the more countries added to the coalition the more complicated the organisation gets and thus the US becomes the obvious choice for a central 'hub'.

 
Member deleted

March 24, 2011

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Dear all,

Thanks for the comments. They are very much appreciated. Please note, however, that this op-ed was drafted and uploaded on 11 March (i.e pre-military action in Libya). The original title of the piece was "Reinforced METAL: European Cast", but has been edited.

What I think is particularly interesting, and as your comments note – the Libya action really does now test the METAL thesis in full. This is the ultimate test of European credibility, not only in the short term military sense, but ensuring the METAL states are put on a more credible long term footing. In that sense, I think the argument still holds.

It’s very apparent that NATO has been unable to act on this (cfr Turkey / Germany). It’s also clear that as a bloc, Europe remains politically cramped – this is essentially bilateral action from a number of individual capitals. It’s very true that Britain and France got their military act together of late, but this really was a case of needing the green light (and ongoing support) from Washington.

Whether the Libya action proves wise will ultimately depend on developments in Tripoli and indeed whether London, Paris and Washington will stay the course. I expect that will be the case, but whether Europe (let alone NATO) will rise to the longer term METAL challenge remains to be seen.

Best regards,

An Jacobs

 
John  Hadjisky

March 25, 2011

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What is particularly galling is the relative ease with which Europe accepted Russia's meddling in its Georgian back yard; While there were civilian deaths in N. Ossetia, etc. before the Russian invasion, there were no credible evidence of the sort of mass casualties Gaddaffi has inflicted in the past, and seems determined to inflict again (indeed, he has already started).

Meanwhile, the rest of Europe's back yard is still off limits without multiple UN and regional resolutions; and even then, controversial enough to delay action to the point that it will now be much harder, and much bloodier, to bring Libya to some sort of positive outcome.

I understand the need for consensus. But, I'll never understand why this consensus cannot be formed in advance, so that when the time comes, actions can be taken with dispatch. Isn't that the whole point of these quasi-democratic, elite-dominated, expert-based consensus mechanisms that make up the bulk of the EU?
 

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