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December 7, 2009 |  6 comments |  Print | E-Mail Your Opinion  

The Post-9/11 Era: A Lost Decade

Fabian Martin Lieschke: With President Obama’s announcement to start withdrawing troops from Afghanistan in 2011, we may be tempted to think that the post-9/11 period is giving way to a new era. Yet, it is precisely such thinking that has turned the years after 9/11 into a lost decade. We should not repeat this mistake.

President Obama wants to start withdrawing troops from Afghanistan in his first term.  This announcement - in hand with a final surge - is the beginning of the end to eight years of the latest international military presence around the Hindu Kush.  With the engagement in Iraq winding down, it seems that we are about to cross the threshold into a new era: the successor to the post-9/11 period.

But before we do so, it is time to look back and ask whether or not 9/11, and the years following it, have changed the world.

The question itself may be an insult to many.  Thousands of lives were taken in the event and continue to be lost in its aftermath; the United States has invaded two countries; Iran perceives the fall of its neighbor regimes in Iraq and Afghanistan as an opportunity for regional dominance; religious fundamentalism has made a comeback.  The list goes on.

So, of course the world has changed!

Pause for a moment, though.  If the post-9/11 period has really changed the world we live in, then why is climate change still the most pressing issue of our time?  Why is China still rising?  The global imbalances that have led to the Great Recession are still with us; nuclear proliferation has not vanished; Israelis and Palestinians are not talking; and one billion people continue to starve everyday.

The major challenges of our time have not changed - they were there on September 10 and did not cease to exist on September 12, 2001.  

What changed after 9/11 was our perception.  It is human nature to compartmentalize events into distinct periods of time: World War I, the inter-war-period, World War II, the Cold War, the post-Cold War-period and post-9/11.  We can place single events into context to help our brains fathom why something must have happened when it happened - and what we should do in response to it. 

The problem with doing so is that we tend to see every event and policy option in a predetermined context; and 9/11 has enabled policy-makers to create a particularly problematic situation. 

Neoconservative ideologues in the Bush administration hijacked the terrorist attacks to implement their agenda.  They suggested that 9/11, which had "changed our world forever", was the prism through which we should view everything.

The implications are well known and go beyond the mistakes made in Afghanistan and Iraq.  The years after 9/11have turned into a lost decade not only because of the policies that were made, but also because of the policies that were not.   

A global response to climate change was unthinkable.  There was little effort to bring Israelis and Palestinians together.  Setting a double standard - cooperation with India, sanctions on Iran and North Korea - undermined the non-proliferation regime.  Force trumped diplomacy with a Defense Department on steroids and an under-resourced State Department.

9/11 has not changed the world, but policy-making in its name has left many challenges unmet, leaving us with huge opportunity costs.    

Attaching a historical label to the present is counterproductive because it leads to a diversion from the real trends.  Although it may be easy to think that we are about to enter into a ‘post-post-9/11' era, that kind of thinking is harmful.  We could conclude to abandon Afghanistan and Pakistan - again.  After all, thinking in terms of the ‘end' of the ‘Cold War' has brought us to where we are today.  We should not repeat this mistake. 

President Obama has been focusing on the real challenges of our time.  He wants to correct past mistakes to move on with a long list of unresolved issues.  It will take time.  He will have to show resolve and demonstrate that US policy is no longer taken hostage by ‘era-thinking', but ready to favor permanent solutions over temporary fixes.   

Fabian Martin Lieschke is a student at the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University.

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December 7, 2009

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This is probably the kind of real leadership that the world is looking for and following, not by imposing/demanding etc., the neoconservative way, while others take upon themselves as their own responsibilities as well, within the capabilities that they have.

The seemingly declining U.S. will very likely rise again, with much less load, by delegating authorities in some senses, and in coordinated cooperation, consistently, constructively and trust-worthily, in a multilateral world today.

Although President Obama will at times have to take the beatings and bite the bullets to gain trust and make the points clear, since a lot of neocons could not get over the loss of an "U.S. empire" in their minds, but premier Putin of Russia, got over the nostalgia of USSR empire, and for that matter, UK as well, the British empire etc.

To sum it up, empires come and go, as history has been very telling on that, and the "endgame" really isn't a "game".
 
Greg Randolph Lawson

December 7, 2009

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I would agree that attaching labels to historical eras is often misleading (even if it is difficult for humans to organize their mode of thinking in alternative ways). I will also say, many large issues were left unresolved in the aftermath of 9/11.

However, I think we will soon see the limits to "multi-lateral", transnational diplomacy every bit as much as we saw the purported end to aggressive unilateralism. The future of diplomacy and international relations will be a hybrid of unilateralism on existential (or at least core national interest) issues, bilateralism, and occassionally (but not frequently) meaningful multilateral initiatives.

 
Alexander Josef Pilic

December 8, 2009

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I do not see US forces completely leaving Afghanistan nor Iraq, I do not see any new development in US foreign policy which effectively reverses Bush policies of the past years. How should this happen with Bush's secretary of defense still in power and a secretary of state labelled by Barack Obama once as a "warmonger"? All I see is a president struggling to make ends meet because the real world does not believe in changing. Sorry for being blasphemous but I do not think that the era of American unilateralism is ending soon...
 
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December 8, 2009

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Copenhagen 2009 is, by and large, a multilateral conference with three groups, namely

(1) EU
(2) Group led by US, Canada, Australia and Japan
(3) Group led by BRIC

and each group is multilateral in itself, probably heading toward the same goal by 2050 to avoid possible disastrous consequences if nothing is done to the climate change syndrome.

Group (1) has very high initial target value, while group (2) and group (3) have moderate initial target values. The arguments among them hang around on, essentially, the technology and fund necessary for actions along with the fear of carbon tax in international trade.

The guiding principles in this international arena are clear :

(1) The Kyoto Treaty
(2) The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
(3) The Bali Road Map

Therefore, agreements among the three groups can probably be reached, but to make them legally binding would be difficult when leaders now would likely become irrelevant in a few decades time. Thus, how to make the agreements transcend well into the future does present major challenges to all. That tests the wisdom of the leaders now.
 
Fabian Martin Lieschke

December 9, 2009

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Thanks for your comments!

To Ting Shiang:
You point out that "President Obama will at times have to take the beatings" to push through his agenda of change in US foreign policy. I agree and would add that he has to deal with the frustration of many. For example, Mr. Obama faces conservative domestic opposition for moving too quickly on issues like climate change, while Europeans want him to move quicker. The fact that hardly anyone - on the left or right, in the US or Europe - is deeply satisfied with the next steps in Afghanistan, is evidence to Obama's (skillful) balancing act.

To Greg:
You state that "the future of diplomacy and international relations will be a hybrid of unilateralism on existential issues, bilateralism, and occassionally meaningful multilateral initiatives." I think this hits the nail on the head. I would even argue that this is already the case today.

To Alexander:
You "do not see any new development in US foreign policy which effectively reverses Bush policies of the past years." I wholeheartedly disagree and recommend you to read Fareed Zakaria's latest piece in the Washington Post (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/12/06/AR2...): "Obama is attempting something quite ambitious -- to reorient U.S. foreign policy toward something less extravagant and adversarial."
The notion that the problems solve themselves by carelessly pulling out of Iraq and Afghanistan is irresponsible and unrealistic.

 
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December 9, 2009

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Agreed.
 

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